Twelfth Chicago Derby
The Sim has been around since 1999, back when the internet consisted of a half dozen people connected by kite string that was held taut by paper cups the users put to their ears, and the Chicago Derby has been there since the beginning. In fact here is a bit of trivia that might be worth a bar bet: What graded stakes has been run the most in the history of the Sim? With this week’s race, the Chicago Derby runs for the 12th time in the ten year history of the Sim.
That’s right. In 2003 and 2004 there were two versions of the stakes – both a Grade I and a Grade II. The Grade II version is significant, because that was the race the Sim’s lone Triple Crown winner, I Seek U, used to prep for the Bluegrass Derby. No other winner of the
At least 12 of this year’s full field need that
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 POWER STRUGGLE(KY) (CAT THIEF x SILVER DEPUTY x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by thethumb07 (The Evil Empire, 13%) Odds: 13-1
Lenny’s colt is the 14th qualifier for the race. If he powers to a win it will be by overcoming several major struggles. He was out of the money in his lone graded start, makes his first try around two turns, and his best speed figure is well below several others’. Dam never won at a route and Cat Thief has been more successful with sprinters, too. Lenny has pulled off some big wins, but this would be a surprise.
PP 2 DANCE STEPS(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x NUREYEV x ALYDAR)
Bred and trained by twoofus2 (Twoofus Stables, 16%) Odds: 13-1
Finished well behind a couple others in here in the Felipe Alou last time and hopes to turn things around. Was an even fourth on an off track last November, but his other two graded tries were not good. His dam was a successful router, but he’s going to have to turn things around dramatically to be a factor today. Fortunately for young horses, that’s possible.
PP 3 SUNDAY PROSPECTOR(KY) (CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x STREET CRY (IRE) x SUNDAY SILENCE) bred and trained by cozyfarms (Snyder Stables, 14%) Odds: 10-1
Don’t overlook this one. Capable trainer brings one of five runners in the field to run a triple digit figure last time. Look at this: The last four winners of the
PP 4 IN HOUSE SLEW(KY) (INCLUDE x CHESTER HOUSE x
This colt’s been bestowed the longest odds in the race, but they probably aren’t deserved. He showed a huge improvement last time against an average overnight field. Can he improve that much again in this race? Probably not, of course, but I tend to take sudden improvement by a springtime three-year-old seriously. It could happen. He tried a graded stakes once before and the results were horrible, so we’ll prefer others and pass on these odds.
PP 5 WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY) (SMARTY JONES x
Favorite was off to a career start reminiscent of his daddy’s until last out when he started his rally a tad late and finished third in the Felipe Alou. The colt he couldn’t catch, Nekrophaneia, is here today, so it’s up to jockey McCants (who won this race in 2004) to time it better. Nekrophaneia could get a lot of pressure from High Mesa, so this one should have no excuse. It’s surprising that if Wireless doesn’t win today, he won’t be running for the roses in May. Despite his three stakes wins, he’s only rated 36th. The lesson may be not to fool around with a $35,000 Mexican overnight stakes with a horse you hope to qualify for a major race.
PP 6 ROCK HARD KORN(KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x
After a pair of impressive allowance wins, this one tried an average field in an overnight stakes last time and responded with a race that makes him competitive here. Did I say competitive? His 105 speed figure is the best last race figure in the field. As mentioned above, sudden improvement by a three-year-old in spring should be taken seriously. The step up in class makes a lot of sense. Ignore all the races before January – this is a different colt at three than he was at two.
PP 7 BENNY MCSHAT(SD) (FINN MCCOOL x DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR) bred and trained by billgulch (Mia and Ben Acres, 14%) Odds: 15-1
Debuted in a maiden claimer due to the very modest sire line, but the colt’s success has been anything but modest. He’s never been out of the money in eight starts. If the speed figures look light to you, look closer. He took a three month freshening to begin the year and while the overnight field he beat in his lone three-year-old start was small, it was not weak. A normal improvement off that effort would make a finish that gives at least a part of the purse to this colt no surprise. I was about to admonish the trainer for the tasteless name of this colt, but then I saw who the trainer was. Now I think it’s a very clever name. Good luck, boss.
PP 8 NEKROPHANEIA(KY) (POINT GIVEN x DEPUTY MINISTER x FORTY NINER) bred and trained by pbcash (The Evil Empire, 19%) Odds: 9-1
Most of the Chicago Derby races have been won by horses coming from well off the pace, but in 2004 and 2005 it was won wire to wire. This colt has a great chance to do that again. There really are only three early speed horses in this full field and the other two look like they don’t like the pressure and may fade early. With six wins in seven starts and a win over the favorite, why is this colt 9-1? He may be prone to fading himself. Even when he wins, his large leads have been diminishing late in the race, and the extra half furlong may not help. As the 18th rated colt, highest in the field, he’s on the bubble to make the Bluegrass field if he doesn’t win.
PP 9 HIGH MESA(KY) (SKY MESA x WOODMAN x MOUNTAIN CAT) bred and trained by whitetiger (Windward Farms, 11%) Odds: 9-1
There are two ways to look at his past performances. One, when he faces serious early pressure he quits like a government worker on a Friday afternoon. Two, he has a pattern of weak race, strong race, and it’s time for a strong race. Every punter has to make his or her own decision of course, but I’ll lean toward the former. Just as we get excited about sudden improvement in a three-year-old, we should be skeptical of ones that run worse than normal last time. The 20th rated three-year-old, he needs to do well to make the
PP 10 THE FOX(KY) (TOUCH GOLD x POINT GIVEN x
The three early speed horses start right next to each other. Everything in this one’s breeding says he’s meant to love routes, including his dam, who was a stakes winning router, but so far he’s been doing better in sprints. Both of his stakes wins have been around one turn, and every time he’s gone sprint to route his speed figures have declined, and every time he’s gone route to sprint his figures have improved. Given the breeding, it’s understandable the barn keeps him routing and lately he’s starting to come around. The major concerns are the likelihood of a duel with the two just inside him and the fact that he’s been fading late in shorter races – the extra furlong still looks like a problem.
PP 11 SHOOT FOR THE GOLD(ENG) (CACIQUE (IRE) x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by super5 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, 13%) Odds: 7-1
So far Cacique’s Sim-get have done best in turf sprints, but this one seems to prefer dirt and has already run well at a longer race than this. This is his first try in graded company, but he looks capable. Steady improvement and a pair of triple digit speed figures make this one a major threat. Jockey’s been having a rough 2008, but his lifetime stats aren’t that bad.
PP 12 ATTENTION(KY) (ALBERT THE GREAT x SAINT BALLADO x
Nice colt has been showing steady improvement and should break 100 today for his speed figure. There are some class questions as his only two times out of the money were his only graded tries, and the field he beat last time was pretty weak. But at least he owns a win at the distance. Jockey is in a bit of a sophomore slump after a strong rookie season. Pay attention late and see if he can time his move right.
PP 13 HELD TWO RANSOM(KY) (WAR FRONT x RED RANSOM x
While his figures have been OK, he’s having a hard time getting on track since turning three. Last time out as the favorite he finished behind Rock Hard Korn by 10 widening lengths for third. His mid-pack finish in the always tough Fountain of Ute was more encouraging, but it’s tough to overlook that he’s lost his last three races by a total of over 22 lengths. As we said, his figures have been OK, and three-year-olds can always make that sudden improvement, but we’ll prefer others.
PP 14 TELESIO(KY) (BERNARDINI x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) bred by brightvalr, trained by socalman (Dixiedotco Racing, 27%) Odds: 15-1
He didn’t show much in the All Saints last time – it was a regression from the impressively close finish in the Grade I Vermont Is 4 Lovers the time before. Bernadini has only one Sim graded winner so far, but he’s certain to get more as they mature and run longer. Closer should get a pace to run at, and he gets a decent rider. It’s tough to dismiss anything Dixiedotco sends out, but there are others that look more likely.
Summary. I was about to list the colts with major chances here, but I couldn’t even eliminate half the field. There’s lots of talent running at 9-1 or 10-1 odds. Here’s a stab at the top three: Sunday Endeavor / Nekrophaneia / Rock Hard Korn.