The $1,000,000 G1 Wooden Indian Derby Lock
Start spreading the news, were arriving today!
Welcome all to New York. Were here to find just who is king of the hill, top of the heap in the $1,000,000 G1 Wooden Indian Derby Lock. This is no place for pretenders as he who stands up here will be counted on the first week of May.
Some in this race have already qualified whilst others are ranked well outside the top 100 and are looking to come from the clouds to nail a lock down. Others are on the edge with plenty of potential but time has simply run out. The time has come for them to step up and win. There is no room for failure and for many, this race will determine their career path.
My Derby favorite Alydar Again is here. I picked him out in November as the Derby winner and word on the street says his trainer has a decent strike rate and can train a horse or two. Smackdown winner Ghost In A Dancer is also here with his Derby spot locked away. Trainers? Well some of the sims big time are here, notably CV Bear, Texasace, Ozsteve, Doctahg (who has 2 Derby Lock runners this weekend), Chilimac, and Qwikvett who has 4 Derby Lock runners this weekend with two in this race. Although he has an outsider that looks up against it here, no G1 race that I write up would be complete without Lenny.
Its put up or shut up time as these 13 colts and one brave filly head into battle to earn their spot in the war that is the G1 Bluegrass Derby, so lets take a look at the field.
PP #1 – GIDEON’S TRUMPET(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x FORTY NINER x SECRETARIAT) floralpark – 9/1
Rank: 45 Record: 7/4-0-0 for $178,620 G3 winner, 2 X ungraded winner
Regally bred colt from the CVBear Racing Empire who is making a dying last minute dash into the Derby field after running out of his skin in his last two starts.
After winning his maiden on debut, he went on to take an ungraded win over my Derby colt Zabeel Warrior by 2 lengths. CVBear then thrust him into the G3 Trixy’s Delight Special at 8f where the now #10 ranked Broadway Dancer beat him by 4 lengths as he finished 4th. Broadway Dancer went on to take out the G1 World Cup and based on that great form line, one would have thought Gideon’s Trumpet was more than capable of winning the G2 Camel Juvenile at 8f. Again, the now #16 ranked colt De Fu was there to deny him a graded win as he slumped to 7th position finishing 5 lengths off.
His last run as a 2yo was his worst and he has since shown that he is a true Bluegrass Derby contender with his last two efforts this year. Back at 8f and running as a 3yo, he easily accounted for an ungraded stakes field in 3476, winning by over a length, posting a career high SP of 101. Again after showing promise, CVBear thrust him into the G3 Gary Asher Memorial Stakes last time out and he did not disappoint posting a 103 at 8.5f. Three huge positives to come from that were that he won by a length, he won on the Kentucky track and most importantly, he beat Pro Mon who has since gone on to lock out a spot in the Derby by winning the Sand Castle Derby last week, posting a 107 SP and accounting for the field by 4 lengths.
Gideon’s Trumpet looks good to go and I hope he wins this as I think he will run a cracker if given the chance to in the Derby. If not, look out for him in the Middle Jewel and the New Yorker.
PP #2 – MOUNT DIABLO(KY) (MINESHAFT x DEPUTY MINISTER x EASY GOER) zwylde – 12/1
Rank: 166 Record: 5/4-0-0 for $238,620 2 X Ungraded winner
The Black Label Stables must have thought all was just peachy as this son of Mineshaft had won his first four starts and had progressed through the grades with ease. His he-mare Powerslave had been a great horse for the stables winning 7 dirt route races and Mount Diablo is following nicely in his hoof prints winning twice in ungraded stakes already.
His last start was very concerning for connections as he was well beaten in the G2 Fountain Of Ute by 12 lengths finishing 13th of 14 runners. However, there are excuses for his performance. Current #7 ranked colt Jesus Walks also ran badly that day along with a host of very handy horses. His main undoing was how the race paned out as Mount Diablo was forced to surrender the lead to a couple of runners early in the piece. In his previous 4 career runs he had lead pretty much from start to finish and racing from behind obviously didn’t suit him.
Therefore, if he can take the lead and stay there for as long as possible, he may be able to give this a shake. My worry is his speed as he has not yet posted a SP over 99 and it look as if the winner will have to post mid 100’s to win here.
PP #3 – MEGS THE CAT(KY) ( HENNESSY x FERDINAND x SEATTLE SLEW) magoo – 9/1
Rank: 130 Record: 9/5-1-1 for $221,540 G2 placed, 4 X ungraded winner
Great colt who was a very disappointing omission from Smackdown for the DUR as I believe he could have easily won it. He is simply a gun colt and has proved that many times so far in his career. A half length is such a small margin but it has had massive ramifications for Megs The Cat to this point as De Fu took out the G2 Irish Futurity and is a shot at making the Derby field now ranked #16.
Facts are that Megs has never run a bad race in 9 starts now. His 7th in the G1 Hoserhead Juvy was questionable but after setting the pace in such a great field early in his career, he stuck on and finished less than 5 lengths off them. Winner that day was the now #11 ranked Pyralis and the now #4 ranked Breeders Bowl winner in Fleet Daisy was 3rd. The G1 World Cup was a fantastic run and although he finished 9th, he was less than 3 lengths off the winner with the million dollar colt in Pyralis again finishing ahead of him.
He usually leads his races but he has been happy to give away the lead of late and stalk opposition. He has had 2 starts this year, both resulting in 2 ungraded wins with the last a real cracker, posting a SP of 106 at 7f. However, he comes into the Derby Lock an unknown quantity at 9f as he has never push past 7 panels. His breeding looks as if the 9f is within reach and if he does get the extra 2 furlongs look out for Megs The Cat!
PP #4 – FOXY MESA(KY) ( SKY MESA x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW) docpmg – 6/1
Rank: 63 Record: 7/3-1-1 for $225,930 G2 placed, 2 X ungraded winner
Trainer is on fire at the moment with one colt Kissin Streetcry desperately close to making the Derby field and this well breed colt. Foxy Mesa is coming into this in very good form having placed 2nd in the G2 Felipe Alou Cap at 8.5f to Nekrophaneia who is currently ranked #18.
In the start before that (his debut for 2008), Foxy was stepped up to 8.5f for the first time and he certainly did not disappoint, posting a 101 SP to finish 4th to this weeks opposition Snarky Remark and the now #7 ranked Jesus Walks who finished 3rd. He only finished 3 and a ½ lengths off Snarky Remark on that occasion after leading the field and it was a great effort to stick on like he did as it is not his usual pattern to lead.
Important to note that Foxy Mesa’s dam Fox And Forty was a G1 winner and finished ITM three times at G1 level. She posted multiple 100+ SP’s and earned over 1 million dollars. However, she never raced further than 8 furlongs and it will be interesting to see if Foxy Mesa can get 9 furlongs and beyond if he is to win this. He looks as if 9 panels is well within him and his sire sure can throw some nice 10 furlong champs.
PP #5 – AGNES DEFINITION(JPN) (AGNES DIGITAL x BLUSHING JOHN x HALO) volcano – 22/1
Rank: 109 Record: 11/4-1-3 for $141,198 ungraded winner
First off, this colt looks well out of his depth in this field but having said that his effort last time out was more than enough to give him a crack at a Derby Lock spot. Trainer Volcano has done a fantastic job to this point after purchasing the colt as a 2yo back in June.
Although he has not set the world on fire with any graded performances, Agnes Definition has progressed well through the ranks and now finds himself at this crossroad. His first run this year was very forgettable and he has since made up for that poor showing with a bounce back to the winners circle in his next start at allowance level, posting a 91 SP at 9f to win by 2 lengths. A great run but an even better training and race decision by Volcano.
Last time out he showed two things. Firstly that he can compete and win at ungraded level and secondly, he can run well at 9.5f showing that this trip is well within him. He did only beat 3 others in that race, but won untouched by 2 lengths. A couple of things are of concern this week for him. He is coming into this off a 2 week break (which he did before his last allowance win) but he is also stepping up to the premier graded of racing and is taking on some of the best 3yo dirt routing colts in the business.
A brave colt and is certainly up against it this week. I hope he does well but couldn’t see him breaking top 10.
PP #6 – PORN STARR(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x MR. PROSPECTOR x NIJINSKY II) korn – 8/1
Rank: 17* Record: 11/5-2-2 for $516,805 G1 winner, 2 X G1 placed, 3 X ungraded winner
Trainer has two horses in this Derby lock with the assault headed up by this brave filly who will have her 12th race start this week whilst looking to break all the rules and win a Derby Lock. She has been in the money 9 of 11 starts to date and comes into this after not having won a race this year. There is no doubt she is a very good filly having won the G1 Thxmsslew Handicap on Del Penn Champs Day, 3 ungraded races and most importantly, she has shown she can mix it with the lads on race day.
After a successful 2yo campaign, trainer korn from the Qwikvett Stables raced her in ungraded company against the boys. She stacked up to it in that race, finishing 2nd by just over a length after rattling home late from over 12 lengths behind.
Finished a great run 3rd in the frantic G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers against the ladies posting a SP of 100 at 8.5f and last time out finished 4th in the G1 California Oaks. Although disappointing in that run, she did race further towards the front and looked as if that may have hampered her. If she gets back in the field this week, the 9f will suit her nicely. The only question is if she has the strength to match it with the lads in G1 Derby Lock pressure.
PP #7 – GHOST IN A DANCER(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x FAPPIANO) triscay – 7/1
Rank: 13 Record: 10/4-1-2 for $840,470 G1 placed, 2 X G2 winner, G2 placed, G3 placed, Smackdown winner
Burst onto the scene from the word go, winning his maiden by two lengths then immediately placing in G3 company. He then staked his claim for a place in the Derby with a G2 win by over 2 lengths, a Smackdown win by over a length and went three in a row by winning another G2 by over 2 lengths. Although that was his last race win (1st September, 2007) and although he was smashed in the G1 World Cup, he showed he still had the ability to mix it with the best when 3rd in the Breeders Bowl after coming home solidly at 8.5f and looking for more ground.
Take out his first run back this year as a 3yo and he looks very good on paper. Grew wings and flew home in the crack field of the G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers, finishing less than 3 lengths away from the winner. His effort last time out in the G2 Bonnie Situation in Kentucky at 9.5f was a giant killer posting a SP of 102 closing to within a length and a half to place 3rd in a full field.
He will again get back with Alydar Again this week and both will be rattling home late a duel that promises to be memorable. He too has his Derby placed all locked up as there are only 5 Derby Locks including this to run so a effort below par could also be expected as a tune up for the grand final.
PP #8 – CASH DUE(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT) chilimac 6/1
Rank: 47 Record: 13/4-5-2 for $145,353 Ungraded winner
Sired by one of Australia’s greats, this colt has been improving slowly over his 13 starts to date. After a highly successful 2yo campaign in which his record stood at 10/4-4-2 including an ungraded win at 8.5f, Cash Due has had three runs this year for just one 2nd placing. His debut 2008 run in the G1 Giant Slayer was forgettable and he may not have handled the soft ground.
Following that effort, he punched out a 101 SP at 8.5f to place 2nd in ungraded company where he attempted to recover a 6 length deficit in the stretch to finish just over a length from the winner. Last time out he run in the G2 All Saints Derby Lock race in which he again posted a 101 SP but was found wanting as the winner Trading Jack careered away for a start on the first weekend of May. Finishing over 6 lengths behind was not the plan but he can post high SP figures and although this is a tight field, it provides opportunities for those willing to stand up as can Cash Due. He is from he-mare Double The Bet who missed the Bluegrass Derby in 2005 but won the owner restricted GSR Middle Jewel after posting a SP of 103. I think Cash Due has the potential to win this and although he will miss the Derby field if he does not, he is still a big chance to figure in a leg of the Triple Crown.
PP #9 – SNARKY REMARK(IRE) (INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x DIESIS(GB) x LYPHARD) looneylopo – 13/1
Rank: 74 Record: 9/4-2-1 for $136,040 2 X ungraded winner
Had really burst into Derby fringe contention this year with 2 giant killing runs in ungraded stakes until his effort last time out. From the Sunshine Stables under the mighty GR Simsters Residency, this colt could well provide them with yet another Derby runner if he can regain his form of 2 starts back.
Won by just a hand first up this year at 8.5f in ungraded stakes to begin his Derby trail beating Kirby’s Warrior who was going for 5 wins strait. Posted a 98 SP on that occasion and looked very nice in doing so at 8.5f which was expected with Diesis at DS and Lyphard at DDS. He then went on to ungraded stakes in Maryland off a 4 week break to really show what he is all about posting a 106 SP again at 8.5f to scream Derby Lock prep at his trainer. Some would look and not take much notice of ‘just another ungraded win’ but the most important thing was which horses he beat.
He again beat Kirby’s Warrior, this time by over a length. He also smashed the now #7 ranked colt and assured Derby starter Jesus Walks by over 3 lengths and put another ½ length on Foxy Mesa who looked helpless against him as he rattled home from over 11 lengths behind at onstage to give Foxy and the field windburn.
His effort last time was more disappointing than words can describe. Stepping up in grade to the G2 All Saints Derby Lock, he failed and failed badly. On that occasion he drew the grand stand side and simply got too far back. He must this week stay in amoungst the other runners and be close enough to strike. This field is better than the All Saints and if he again doesn’t stand up to the pressure of graded racing, its good night.
I really hope he can reproduce the effort of his last ungraded win as a SP of 106 will be good enough to nail the field and take his place on the first weekend in May.
PP #10 – ROAD CRITTER(KY) (BELLAMY ROAD x AFFIRMED x IRISH RIVER(FR)) fastvett1 – 11/1
Rank: 86 Record: 11/6-2-2 for $79,415 ungraded winner
As I said in the intro, this trainer has 4 horses in contention for the Derby this weekend. Road Critter is certainly not the pick of them and will not hold the fort for the stable in this race either with the brave filly Porn Starr standing tall.
His win last time out is the only reason he would even get a look in at this field. That showed he can win at 9.5 panels going wire to wire. A very impressive effort and posted at 97 SP in doing so which is very encouraging. However, take out that last run and he is just your stock standard 3yo colt that has a run on dirt and may snag a win or two. The field was very poor with only one ungraded winner and although it was a great 2 length win, he must run way out of his skin to touch this field this week. 4 weeks rest is a positive and if he is to lead once again, the 9 furlongs will suit. Would be very surprised if he placed inside the top 10 but he defiantly deserves his chance after his effort last time out.
PP #11 – SIMPLE PASSING(IRE) ( MONTJEU (IRE) x MR. PROSPECTOR x HIS MAJESTY) lenny12 – 14/1
Rank: 142 Record: 9/4-1-1 for $86,716 ungraded winner
The switch to dirt defiantly helped but up until last start, this colt was very much average. His dam Fat Off The Pro did nothing on the track in 3 starts but she has thrown mare who was twice placed in graded company as a 4yo and a nice 4yo colt who has just won in ungraded company at 10f on dirt.
Therefore, the 9f in this race and the 10f of the Derby is well within him, especially coming from Montjeu. I do not think he has the ability to win this and will therefore miss the Derby but I would love to see him make the 12f New Yorker in the last leg of the Triple Crown.
It is fair to say that he is only in this race as a result of his giant killing run last time out at 9f as he posted a SP of 99 to win easily by just under 2 lengths. He did beat some very handy colts in the field of 12 but must step up this week to the ultimate level of racing. If anyone understands what is required, it is Lenny, but on paper he looks as if they will out gun him. He has raced mainly against smallish fields and drawn decent barriers, however in this full field of 14, chute 11 looks as if it will be against him, especially as he either likes to sit close to the leader or set the pace himself.
He really must get a good jump and get a good position in close to the speed. Stalking the leaders and moving up in the stretch appears his only hope.
PP #12 – ALYDAR AGAIN(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x NORTHERN BABY x ALYDAR) texasace04 – 8/1
Rank: 9 Record: 8/5-1-0 for $423,250 G1 and ungraded winner
I knew this guy was special when he accounted for the Arizona Diamond field back in November. As expected, he has been handled perfectly by texasace from the moment he broke his maiden and comes into this in maybe the best form of all 3yo colts in contention for the Derby. Jumping from barrier 9 week 3518 in Alabama, he annihilated the field by almost 5 lengths after being almost 14 lengths down at one stage. Posting an SP of 102, he was untouched and completely wiped his prior failure in the G1 Vermont Is 4 Lovers away.
Although he was far below his best in what was a gun field in Vermont, he actually made up over 6 lengths in the final stages and looked as if he will run home like a steam train in the Derby. I would not be surprised if Wayne set his effort to around 0.95 for that run as he has shown in the two races prior to that and his effort last time out that he can close quickly to nail a field within the blink of an eye. He has a massive turn of foot and can accelerate exceptionally quick (just like another horse we all know by the name of Horseshoe Bay). Don’t be surprised if Alydar Again just cruises in this though as Wayne knows he is locked up and may use this as an under par dress rehearsal.
PP #13 – ACK LOCH(ITY) ( LOMOND x ACK ACK x RAJA BABA) wispa – 36/1
Rank: 143 Record: 10/2-1-4 for $85,520 ungraded winner
This colt looks hopelessly outgunned and outclassed in this. Winner of just one ungraded race as a 2yo, he has shown nothing in two starts this year with speed and class up against him. Best SP to date is a 90 at 8f and his effort at 9.5f showed that the mile may be his limit. Looks as if ungraded company is his go and he will be caught wanting in such supreme class in this G1 Derby Lock.
PP #14 – GOIN TO GUSTOS(KY) (SMARTY JONES x EVENT OF THE YEAR x AFFIRMED) pointe – 13/1
Rank: 129 Record: 7/3-1-1 for $76,880 ungraded winner
Trainer has every reason to be as excited as a pig in poo!!! This colt bloody flew last time out leaving his trainer covering his ears as Goin To Gustos stood screaming for a Derby Lock race.
Before his last start, you wouldnot have claimed him for over $50,000. He had done nothing much apart from a 94 SP at 8f early this year. Although some may have thought he could have some stamina, no one could have possibly guessed what he would do when given 9.5f in ungraded company. Posting a 105 SP and coming from over 5 lengths down, he has come rocketing into contention and is more than a good chance to take this race and snatch a spot in the Derby. 105 SP as a early year 3yo at 9.5f is very impressive in anyone book and if he can stand up to the pressureof G1 racing and reproduce his last start form, look out!
He did not beat a talented field but he certainly showed he will shake the Derby field and especially the 12f New Yorker field if he makes it. Another horse with a massive chance this week.
Well there we are folks. This is probably the most exciting race I have written up to date. There are so many chances and as we all know, early 3yo’s can do funny things. A few coming into this race are proven G1 performers and do not have to prove they can stand up to the class whilst others will have to overcome that. A few have run out of their skin last time out and come into this desperately seeking to maintain their form whilst others have been consistently good for some time now.
This race has it all. Horses from multiple stables, horses coming from humble beginnings and horses that have been on the Derby trail from day one.
As to who will win, that is a joke. How can you compare such differences?
The top tier: Alydar Again, Gideon’s Trumpet, Ghost In A Dancer all look good and deserve respect that they have earned over the months.
The challengers: Megs The Cat, Cash Due, Porn Starr, Foxy Mesa can win for sure and will run well.
The next frontier: Goin To Gustos was clearly amazing last time out and if he repeats, a Derby spot is his for the taking!
The rest to take on the best: Simple Passing, Snarky Remark, Agnes Definition and Mount Diablo all need to show they can take the next step. In a perfect world, each probably would have a graded prep race to establish they belong here. However, the time is now and they must stand up if they are to cause a massive upset and steal a spot in the big one.
The rest to not figure: Ack Loch and Road Critter will struggle big time.
Have a fantastic time at the races and buckle up folks as this will be a good old fashioned shoot out with only the strong to survive!!!