Boston Derby

M. RADKE has won in Grade III company but not yet at this level. He has some nice runs in Grade I’s over a mile but I worry that he wants shorter not longer. H ehas been closing athe the threequarter pole and then fadign again by the finish. He has the speed figures but for me the distance counts against him. OFFSTAGE(GB) has some very good runs at 7-7.5f recently and wants more than that but maybe not as far as this. He disapoiunted big time in his recent 9f run, although that was aslo on soft ground. If the soft ground was the problem he’ll take somre beating here but if it was the distance he’ll struggle. COACH FOX has not ran at this level and faded when tried at this distance latest. He looks all over a miler and again will struggle with the distance and class. LIRIO was closing over 6f in a Grade I latest and looksd like he’ll handle the distance. With likely improvement for the step up in trip he can make the money. DUEX BLOON(IRE) is hard to assess. He clearly has talent as judged by some sparkling stakes wins over 8f and looked like he could go further. His latest over 10f was clearly too far but surprisingly his last try over 9f looked a bit long also. He has tio be worth another try though, and assuming he gets the distance he can steal thw win. REBELLION has a similar profile in finding 10f too far and looking to close over 8-8.5f. Again if he gets the distance he’ll be a threat and can take second.

Of the others SPINNENIUM is a sprinter and weants 6-f, too far fo hin here, ASCORBICO has a couple of good stakes runs but looks iout of his class, TARBASH IRLANDAIS lasr run in a stakes over todays distance saw a good speed figure and a third place finish, he mat reach the money and is a lively outsider. SCOTIAN KING(IRE) is a decent allowance horse but no better, SARATOGA STORM is another lively outsider and can sneak third, he has found a mile and a qarter and upwards too far but his best runs have been over 9f and in good company. Expect a big run. WILL O’ THE WISP , RIVADO(IRE) and FEAR SEEKER(AUS) look stakes runners at best and are out of their depth.