Boilover of the Century?
Three years old and up fillies head to the Californian green track this week, for the Demona Handicap G1 over 9 furlongs chasing a purse of $450,000. In what looks to be shaping up as a true classic race with more highs and lows than a gearbox factory, let’s take a closer look.
1. GIDDYUP DIDDY – deelynette – This filly carries some great form leading into this week’s race. After a solid start to the season comprising three stakes wins on the trot, the decision was made to tackle graded fields again. Initially she had a slight drop in form, suggesting perhaps she wasn’t up to it, this however was quashed in her last start where she easily won a G1 in dominant fashion. Maybe she could do with just a little more distance, but she’s definitely a contender here.
2. FIRM KING (IRE) – pandrews – Six wins in eight career starts, including three stakes pretty much says it all. She is however as yet unproven at this long a distance and on more than one occasion has claimed victory by a rather small margin. Proof of course can only come with runs and provided she does handle the length will be right in contention. The gambling investor though may have a little nervousness taking a punt.
3. KING SNAKE – kingfish – A repeat of the G3 run two starts ago, should be enough to cover this race quite comfortably, but form really does have chequered qualities in most recent times, and seems to have a noticeable relationship with competition level. Certain things cannot be denied however, she is the #8 ranked filly in her division, and one only need look six starts ago to find a G1 victory. As the entrant second in line of favouritism, the odds makers may know something the rest of us don’t, but unfortunately I feel the jitters may return given this race is a G1.
4. URKO’S PIRATE (IRE) – stalpipo – Not quite finding the tail of the morning line, but nevertheless, this filly’s current form is probably going to have her struggling against the top chances in this field. Given she does have plenty of graded experience, for only fifteen starts, and has in fact won a G1 only four starts ago, but substantial improvement on her career best speed will be required to be victorious.
5. KIKI’S MOON DANCER – gd – Now this is very interesting indeed. Sent out at 13/1 this mares last three starts have been at conditions she simply does not like very much at all, and hence has had a pretty tough time of it, especially her last two. Hold on to your hats though folks for a whopping upset from this girl, her best is at these very conditions, and her best is far and away better than any of her competitors here. Punters should get ready to have an awfully fat wallet by the time they leave the track today.
6. TED’S INNDAR (IRE) – refinement – A promising run three starts ago had this girl’s form shaping up very nicely. Unfortunately however the following two were at distances either side of her apparent preferred, causing her to ‘drop the ball’. Being back to conditions almost what she knows best here, should bring with it a return to somewhere near that best form, but she will still have to make substantial improvement, if this race is heading in the direction I believe it will.
7. DREAMING OF LOVE – snowchief – A very comfortable, almost easy G1 win last time out had this filly strolling over the line at a quite reduced speed to what would be expected. Proving that all that needed to be done for victory was delivered. She is however capable of much better than the speed posted in that race suggests, hence her listing as the race favourite. Quite obviously she is amongst the strongest of contenders in this field and probably should win, but she must look out for the #5, a factor I’m sure the well known trainer might be a little nervous about. And if not, well she sure does now.
8. TURNING JAPANESE – dkyoung – The #2 ranked mare and BB Distaff winner from last year makes her presence felt here, finding herself an unlucky ½ point behind the favourite on the morning line. Although still putting in solid runs race after race, this season she really hasn’t managed to capture the truly spectacular form of last season, surely frustrating her trainer. Even so current form still has her as a very prominent contender here, and being shortened up a fraction might drag the speed out we all know she’s capable of.
9. REDSTORM ROCKET – tigereyes – Rather short odds of 9/1 are a little bit of a surprise to your writer, as there doesn’t seem to be enough form or current ability for this mare to challenge too many up front. With so many races on the board now it’s likely she’s probably beyond her best, but so many times we see a second wind come from these types knocking out a seemingly impossible run. It’s what will be required here, and probably not likely.
10. GRAND CAFFREY’S(IRE) – corka – Entry here follows a win at the Yorkshire Oaks G1 four weeks ago, finding 10 ¼ lengths on the then leader in the last quarter, truly spectacular stuff. The problem however is going to occur as a result of distance. I really don’t think she’ll have enough this time around. She certainly has the ability to win and will probably be steaming home at quite a rate of knots, but the gate is just going to arrive too soon. It’s difficult of course to be critical of the #3 ranked horse in any division, but a few competitors current form at this specific distance simply look too strong.
This race is I see shaping up to be one of the most bizarre upsets I think I’ve ever written about. At 13/1 KIKI’S MOON DANCER could be brushed over without even a second glance. First impressions however are proven to mean nothing here without a shadow of a doubt. The ability this girl possess’ and showed a mere four starts ago, is plenty to blow this field to pieces. Once again folks, hold on to your hats, this should be a beauty.
Cheers