Oaktree Handicap

Few races have been around as long as the venerable Grad I Oaktree Handicap in Arkansas, which runs for the tenth time this weekend.  After having their strongest field ever last year, racing officials are pleased with the quality veterans who have shipped in for this nine furlong contest.

The 2007 edition featured four millionaire horses and was won by the favorite.  It was the first time in five years the winner did not go off at double digit odds.  This year’s field features three millionaires and a couple more knocking at the door.  And if you’re looking for a long price in a race that has traditionally been kind to them, there are some very long prices here.  Favorite or longshot?  That remains to be seen.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 BLACKJACK CAT(KY) (TACTICAL CAT x WILD AGAIN x COX’S RIDGE) bred and trained by racinqueen (At The Wire Thoroughbreds, 12%) Odds: 14-1

This four-year old will keep the pace honest at least.  All three of his dirt wins have come wire to wire, and that’s the only way he knows to run.  Unfortunately he’s not been able to hold a lead since September, and since then he’s been facing weaker and shorter.  It’s hard to see how an extra furlong and a large jump in class will help.  He’s tried graded stakes five times, never finishing in the money.

PP 2 HOMELAND SECURITY(KY) (TIZNOW x PULPIT x FORTY NINER) bred by grracers, trained by 6ward (new orleans inc, 7%) Odds: 34-1

Claimed for $10,000 in September, this colt has done well for his new connections: two wins, two seconds and a third in seven starts.  After watching their colt run two triple digit speed figures and pick up a couple wins in his past two starts, the barn looks to see what he can do against much much much tougher.  One hopes the U.S. department of Homeland Security is not as overmatched as this colt appears.

PP 3 HALO ME DOWN (MINESHAFT x HALO x STORM BIRD) bred and trained by sdmf4 (Black Label Stables, 18%)  Odds: 9-2

Lightly raced five-year-old is very fast.  He has a tendency to run out to huge leads and then gamely hang on as the lead dwindles.  His biggest win came in the stable-sponsored Black Label Mile, but he didn’t face the toughest opposition in that race.  He is the speed of the speed here and should be able to set whatever pace his able jockey chooses.  There are some very classy closers in here.  This should be an exciting finish.

PP 4 MAMBO BONES (KINGMAMBO x DANEHILL x LE FABULEUX) bred and trained by jrogue5 (Jrogue Stables, 15%) Odds: 7-2

There’s a lot to like in the favorite.  He’s the only top ten rated router in the field.  He’s recently beat some of the other obvious contenders.  He’s a deep closer in a race with early speed that tends to break down.  He has the highest last-race speed figure in the field.  But here’s a true nugget:  Five of the previous nine Oaktrees have been won by a horse exiting the California Handicap.  Mambo here is the only one in this field coming from that race.  As the top ranked horse in the race, he could have attracted any jockey in the Arkansas colony.  One wonders how his connections decided on a rider off to such a slow 2008.  Likely to be a millionaire after this race.

PP 5 IRISH QUEST (RAINBOW QUEST x IRISH RIVER(FR) x GRAUSTARK) bred by jrogue1, trained by xanderman (Jrogue Stables, 16%) Odds: 16-1

It’s been a rough nine months for this veteran.  Yes, he picked up a nice Grade II win in early September, but that’s about it.  He’s lost his past three races by a combined 55 lengths.  You have to be careful in completely eliminating him fro consideration, though.  He’s done it before where he’ll every now and then throw in a strong race despite appearing to be badly off form.

PP 6 DEPRAVITY (RED BULLET x DEPUTY MINISTER x MR. PROSPECTOR)

 Bred by kaily, trained by funster (Theatrical Stables, 20%) Odds: 14-1

This is Depravity’s 51^st start, and all that racing (to say nothing of his presumed lifestyle) has taken its toll.  He hasn’t been in the money in his last eight graded starts, and when he does fire off a good run, like last outing’s allowance win, it seems more likely to come on a wet track.  This race has been kind to deep closers in the past, and that may help his chances.

PP 7 BORDER STRIKE (SMART STRIKE x SUNDAY SILENCE x SIR IVOR) bred by jrogue, trained by jrogue1 (Jrogue Stables, 18%)  Odds: 12-1

He beat a pretty strong overnight field in Mexico two back and made his first try in a graded stakes last time right at this track.  He raced with interest until near the end where did not make his customary move.  He’s eligible to make an improvement off that race and could be a factor here.  The pace sets up nicely for him actually.  Most of the late runners here come from well back.  If he can stick with the one just to his outside, he might get first crack at the early speed.  In a race that has been won so often by longshots, it make sense to try to find one you like.

PP 8 WINTER MORN (E DUBAI x A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by calmriver2 (Calmriver Farms, 17%) Odds: 5-1

Late starter made his debut late in his three-year-old season and so is only making his 15^th career start.  He’s been up to every challenge so far, never finishing out of the money and winning his only graded start.  Patient trainer has been spreading the races out so that Winter hits this race right on schedule, in top form, and at his best distance.  An overlay at 5-1.

PP 9 FLY FOR BUDA (SADLER’S WELLS x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x RUBE THE GREAT) bred and trained by gg (Topicount Stables, 16%) Odds: 11-1

With four Grade I wins and almost $4 million in the bank, Fly for Buda is a likely Hall of Famer for one of the game’s most popular veteran trainers.  Unfortunately it’s getting close to nine months since the veteran of 31 graded stakes has finished in the money, and wear and tear are wearing and tearing him down.  He still had it going a year ago when, in this same race, he put a nose in front only to be caught by the favorite.

PP 10 TAP THE KING(KY) (TAPIT x MARIA’S MON x NORTHFIELDS) bred and trained by pudj1 (Pilgrim Stables, 11%) Odds: 20-1

When Biting Insects won the Oaktree last year and broke a string of winners who had prepped in the California Handicap, he did it by prepping in an overnight Montana stakes called the A.P. Jello.   Tap the King is trying the same route.  The youngster looked very good when racing against three-year-olds, but he hasn’t shown much against older yet.  He is still eligible to improve into being competitive against this sort, and the improvement may come suddenly.  In the meantime, the step from being out of the money in overnights to trying a Grade I seems an ambitious step.

PP 11 RANSOM PHYL(SAF) (HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF) x RED RANSOM x GONE WEST) bred by chop, trained by adonai (Beefcake Stables, 9%)  Odds: 29-1

Phyl’s been claimed a couple times in his career, but he’s not running anything like a claimer for his current connections.  He handily beat an allowance field that had a couple stakeswinners last time, and he ran a bigger figure than ever – one that’s competitive in this race.  The question is whether he will bounce off that and wilt against these classier runners, or if he’ll continue to improve.  It seems he’s found his best distance.  Probably he’ll not like the class or get eaten up by the certain rough early pace, but for $60 on a $2 bet, he might be worth a play.

PP 12 HORATIO NELSON(KY) (TOUCH GOLD x A.P. INDY x DANZIG) bred and trained by lopo34 (Winterfell Racing, 13%) Odds: 12-1

Bid and hung in the Grade III Saints Handicap last time, easily beating Irish Quest.  He figures to contribute to a hot early pace, and he’s been having trouble in the late stages of most of his races.  With only one finish out of the money in his life, he’s almost certain to be around for a piece of it near the end, but it looks like he’s be more of a threat to win if the race were a furlong shorter or the track had come up sloppy.

PP 13 AWEGUSTUS (AWESOME AGAIN x UNBRIDLED x SADLER’S WELLS) bred ant trained by theagakhan (Galileo Stables, 16%) Odds: 6-1

He’s hooked up with Mambo Bones a few times, losing the last round in the Vermont is 4 Lovers, but beating him in the Tropicount and the Jockey Guild Stakes.  He’s earning over $90,000 per start and picks up the dominant rider.  Last two starts have been his worst, but there is a way to excuse them.  Two starts ago he simply showed he needed a freshening.  Capable trainer gave him seven weeks off, and the last start was just the first off that brief layoff.  He certainly could come back into form today.  Dangerous to ignore.

PP 14 MIRACLE TO ME (DEPUTY MINISTER x ALYDAR x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by soulbleed (Black Label Stables, 18%) Odds: 19-1

Uncoupled stablemate to Halo Me Down.  This veteran specialized in two-mile races.  He hasn’t run anything this short in over a year and a half.  When he used to run these distances he liked them just fine, thank you.  That bodes well  Speed figures at 16 furlongs are often slower than at 9, so odds that reflect his 16 furlong times underestimate his ability.  He’s sharp right now and gets a favorable pace scenario.  He’s a multiple winner of graded stakes, so class is not an issue.

Summary.  Ignoring odds, it seems the most likely winners are Winter Morn and Mambo Bones.  If you are looking for a long price, look at Miracle to Me and even Ransom Phyl.