Stupidly Not Beau Handicap looks to be a battle of speed

Long sprinters visit Virginia this week to participate in the highlight race, the Stupidly Not Beau handicap. The race invites all horses four years and older to run over seven and a half furlongs of turf for a piece of the $45000 purse. The weather is slated to be beatiful for this first weekend of Spring, and the track will be rated as firm for this event. This is the fourth annual running of the handicap, captured last year by Want To Dance, who surprised the field, taking them wire to wire to win by two and a quarter at some juicy 9/1 odds. This year’s race draws a field of twelve, and this one promises to be about speed and more speed. Combined over their last eight starts, the twelve have shattered the 100+ mark fifty six times, with several 110+ speeds scattered among them. Bettors are busily scanning there sheets looking for inspiration, as this one looks to have some decent payouts for the best tipsters. The favorite goes off at a relatively long 9/2 mark, with six more horses sandwiched in the 6/1 to 8/1 range. The last five entries weigh in between 10/1 and 18/1 in the longshot seat. We should see some nice payouts at the window to cap what looks to be a very exciting race.

PP 1) Sharks Limelord(KY) Sired by Limehouse, Trained by dcsharks. Sharks Limehouse(KY) is a four year old colt, making his twenty first career start here. He has two previous stakes wins to his credit, the most recent coming in his second start of this season. His last ten starts have seen him run to a 3-1-1-1-1 record with five 100+ speeds, topping out at 111.1 in his stakes win early this season. His last run was an A3t outing at this distance in Kentucky, where he finished a fairly close in sixth in a field loaded with speed. Turf has been his home since his third start, and this is his distance of choice, with twelve of his twenty career starts coming in the seven to seven and a half furlong range, resulting in four wins and seven top three finishes. He likes to stalk the pace from the head of the midpack, but his close has been an on and off thing. Even when he fails to fire though, he can generally hold his ground, not fading much even in a fast field. He’s taken things up a notch this season, putting up some of the best numbers of his career. His last three victories have all been thrillers at the wire, and while he has shown the speed to stay in the game here, he’s going to need a more decisive effort to bring this one home.

PP 2) Cocaine Train Sired by Buddha, Trained by piccolo87. Cocaine Train is is a five year old horse, coming in as the favorite here in his twenty eighth career start. He has a pair of prior stakes wins, coming back to back late last year. Over the course of his last ten, he has put up a 5-3-0-0-0 record, with eight 100+ speeds, with a best of 114.8 coming in a stakes win last October. His last run was an eight and a half furlong stakes in Georgia, where he trotted in sixth in a full field, out nine lengths at the wire. His success has all come on the turf, where he has been running full time since his sophomore season. He generally runs a slightly longer race, with the bulk of his income coming in the mile range, but he has proven capable in this distance range with four top three finishes in four starts, failing to crack into the 100+ range only once, that being back in his two year old season. He likes to sit just off the lead early, waiting for his chance early in the second half. After some stellar running last Summer and Autumn, his fortunes seem to have turned somewhat after a trouncing in a very good field at DCPD. While still posting some nice speed numbers, he’s just not showing the jump he had before that run. This field won’t be a cakewalk either, and he will need a return to last year’s form to live up to his favorite billing here.

PP 3) Flashing Sabre(KY) Sired by Medaglia D’Oro, Trained by adonis. Flashing Sabre is a four year old colt, seeing action for the eighteenth time as he appears in this race. He takes the longshot role in his second career stakes try, as he seeks his first victory at this level. He sports a record of 3-1-1-1-1 in his last ten, with a best speed figure of 105.5 earned in an A4x in his second start of this season. His last race was an A4L at seven furlongs in Eastern Kentucky on an off track, where he finished seventh in a field of twelve, not being able to get a good jump on the spongy track. He’s run strictly turf since early last year, and this seems to be about his best distance range, with three top three finishes in five tries and both career 100+ speeds coming in this range. He likes a fast break from the gate, and needs at least a piece of the early lead to be effective. He’s had trouble holding on recently though, especially when he is challenged early. He’ll have some competition early to his outside, but what he will really need to worry about is the speed sitting off his tail. He’ll need the race of his career and then a little luck besides to hold on to this one much past the half.

PP 4) Rip Saw(NY) Sired by Jade Hunter, Trained by bobthehat. Rip Saw(NY) is running in his four year old campaign, making his twenty second career start in this race. He has seen stakes action, though most came in his two year old season, and is is still looking for that first stakes victory. His last ten starts have netted him a 3-1-2-0-0 record, with his best speed of 107.8 coming in his last start. That race was an A3x at eight furlongs in South Carolina, where he grabbed a thriller at the wire by a half length. Though he has made a dirt start here and there, turf has always been his true home. The mile to mile and a half range has been his preferred race, and he has made only one turf start in this distance range, on an off track back in his two year old season, which resulted in a second place finish. He runs as a midpack closer, but his close has been somewhat of a rollercoaster recently. Since a thrashing late last year at DCPD, this colt has seemed to be out to prove something, doing some of the best racing of his career in his first two starts this year at allowance levels. His trainer is asking a lot of him here with this set up in class, but this colt has been doing his best to earn that shot. I don’t see him winning this one, but if you are looking for some longer odds to pad your trifecta box, he might be worth a look.

PP 5) Super Coverup Sired by Squirtle Squirt, Trained by taleofcat9. Super Coverup makes the thirty fourth start of his career here, as he gallops through his five year old season. He has seven career stakes wins, including a Grade 2 back in his two year old season, with his most recent coming in his last start. He has run to a 2-2-0-0-3 record in his last ten, with four 100+ starts, earning a top speed number of 116.6 in his last run. That race was a stakes at this distance in Maryland, where he chased down a one and a quarter length victory in a field of eight. He is a surface versatile runner, with stakes wins on both surfaces, but in runs under eight furlongs, his speeds show a decided edge on turf. This distance range is his race of choice, and in nine turf starts, four wins and eight top three finishes. He has had success as both a stalker and a deeper closer, but his close has been having problems getting him there recently up until his last start. After a somewhat lackadaisical second half last year, he has ratcheted things up a notch in his first two starts of this season, putting up back to back career best speeds in his first two starts. His speeds have been steadily increasing since last September, and if he follows that trend here, he is going to be a serious threat down the stretch.

PP 6) Mad Axe Man II Sired by Red Ransom, Trained by sdmf. Mad Axe Man II is a five year old horse, taking the gate for his twenty ninth career appearance. He is no stranger to stakes competition, but he is still seeking that elusive first win at this level. In his last ten starts he has put up a record of 1-2-3-3-1, with three 100+ outings, capped by a 103.7 in a stakes race last September. His last start came two weeks ago in Delaware in an A1y at this distance, where he took a full field wire to wire to hold on to a quarter length victory. Outside of a single dirt start early in his career, he’s been all turf. He performs well at just about any distance he’s placed at, collecting checks at high compettition levels at anywhere from five to twelve furlongs. In five career starts at this distance level, he sports three top three finishes, and three of his eight career 100+ speeds. He’s a fast starter, liking to set the pace, but he has had problems hanging on late. He’s in a field of hungry closers here, and also likely to have a battle early. He’s going to need better speed than he has shown recently and a bigger cushion than he has been able to put up to lead this speedy field home.

PP 7) Breezy Boulevard Sired by General Meeting, Trained by magpies3. Breezy Boulevard is running in his five year old campaign, and steps to the track for his twenty eight career run here. He has one previous stakes victory, which came at this distanc ein a race last August. He has a respectable 4-2-0-2-0 record out of his last ten starts, breaching the 100+ speed mark nine times, capped off by a 109.9 mark last Summer. His last race was an was a six furlong open allowance on good turf in Rhode Island, where he bested a field of eight by a length and a half behind an excellent stretch run. He has had some dirt experience, and though he did passingly well, it is turf where he has made his name. He loves any kind of sprint, and in this distance range, a single fourth place finish marks the only time he has finished outside the top two spots. He also broke the 100 speed mark in four of those efforts. He’s a deep closer, and his close has generally been very good recently. He steps back up in class here after a pair of excellent runs at allowance level, but he is also stretching back out from a pair of six furlong races. He gets in trouble if he finds himself out too deep at the half, but the early speed here shouldn’t bury him in this race. He should be threatening down the stretch, but he has a lot of late speed to overcome to carry it all the way home.

PP 8) Tippy’s Love Sired by Successful Appeal, Trained by relaytx. Tippy’s Love is a five year old horse, racing in his thirty second career outing here. He has two previous stakes victories, his latest coming in his first start of this season. His last ten runs have seen him go 3-0-3-2-1, with eight 100+ speeds, and a pair of 110.3 figures showing as his best. His last run was a stakes at this distance in Illinois, where he held one to his position for most of the race, settling for fifth in a field of thirteen. He boasts wins and 100+ speeds on both surfaces, but turf has been his real payday. He has proven himself capable in any kind of sprint, and in this distance range he has three top three finishes in five starts, and both career best speed numbers came at the same distance he faces here. He is a midpack closer, and his close has been up and down, but even when he can’t muster that big second half push, he rarely shows much of a fade either, fighting right down to the last. The biggest question is which horse are we going to see here, the dominating second have closer with graded quality speed, or the tough workhorse that shows decent speed but just settles for a paycheck. Over his last six, he has won every other start, and this is due to be his big one. If that pattern holds, that could make him a tough horse to beat in this one.

PP 9) Lazy Happy(IRE) Sired by Galileo(IRE), Trained by toplight. Lazy Happy(IRE) is a four year old colt who has shown very little laziness, and made his trainer quite happy with ten top three finishes in his eleven career starts. He has one career stakes win, which came at nine furlongs last July. His career record speaks for itself at the 5-4-1-1-0 mark, with five 100+ speeds, highlighted by a 107.5 late last year. His last start was an A1t at this distance in Illinois, where he fell just short, settling for second in a field of eight runners. All eleven career runs have been on turf, and while his money race has been in the nine to nine and a half range, in this distance range he has a win and a place in two starts behind some nice speed figures. He is a deep closer, and his close has been quite consistent, though he has had problems with running out of real estate late in the race. He’s been at the top of his form recently, doing far and away the best running of his career. He should have decent striking distance in the second half of this one, but his performance seems to be dictated more by the second half pace in his races than the first half. Should be in the mix as they turn for home in this one, but the question will be if there is enough open ground down the stretch for him to bring it all the way home.

PP 10) Nofearre(IRE) Sired by Noverre(IRE), Trained by bulletday9. Nofearre(IRE) is one of the older racers in this field at six years old, and he is making his twenty ninth career start. Though experienced in stakes competition, that first stakes win has eluded him so far, and he looks to remedy that here. He brings a 3-3-0-1-0 record to the table out of his last ten, with four 100+ speed numbers, cashing in a best of 107.2 in his last outing. That race was a seven furlong stakes at a tough Eastern Kentucky track, where he dug in late nearly running down the leader before settling for second by a half length. He’s been on turf since career start number two, and loving every minute of it. His best percentages have been in the six to six and a half furlong range, but most of that success was posted as a juvenile. As he has matured, he has three wins and a place in this distance range in five tries. He runs as a midpack closer, and while he lanquished through most of last season, in his last three his form has been spot on. Something has lit a fire under this horse, and it could very well be the drop back to long sprint distances after routing much his past couple of seasons. After averaging low to mid 90 speeds over the last couple of seasons, he simply exploded at the end of last year, posting three straight speeds over 106 coming into this one. He looks ready for the big time here, and at 11/1 odds, he also makes an excellent valued pick for your exotic boxes this week.

PP 11) Dinowheels(KY) Sired by Rahy, Trained by kyrin. Dinowheels(KY) is a four year old colt with fifteen career starts under his belt as he takes the gate here. This will be his first career stakes start. His last ten starts have seen him race to a record of 3-0-3-0-3 with four 100+ speeds, culminating in a 108.4 figure in his last race of the 2007 season. His last run was an A3t at this distance in Kentucky, where he finishes fifth in a packed field behind a strong second half close. While his performance on dirt has been adequate, turf is where he has really shone throughout his young career. He has three wins and a show in five starts in this distance range, and has never failed to collect a paycheck. He’s a deep closer, and outside of one stumble, his close has been very consistent recently. If you look at his turf performances over last season going into to this one, he can see him maturing. He’s earned this shot at stakes by doing the best running of his career over his last four starts. The question, as always in this type of situtation is how he will respond to the jump in class. We’ve seen horses with graded quality speed in the allowance ranks simply roll over and die at stakes level, while we have watched others step up to the challenge on their way to stardom. He’s been doing some great running recently, but I hesitate to recommend him until I see how he reacts to the step up in class.

PP 12) Blarney Pan Sired by Carnivalay, Trained by prfctdrift. Blarney Pan is the grand elder of this field at nine years of age, and he steps to the track for his thirty sixth career start here. He has three career stakes wins, with his most recent coming in July of last year. Over the course of his last ten starts, he has put together a record of 2-2-1-1-2, with seven 100+ speed figures, capped by a 105.7 last summer. His last start was a stakes race at a mile in Victoria, where he showed some life in the second half, but it was too little, too late in a seventh place finish in a very tight race. He has breeched the 100 speed mark on both surfaces, but he is much more comfortable on the grass. This is his race of choice, with twenty one career starts in this distance range resulting in ten wins and fourteen top three finishes. He is a midpack closer, and while his close has been relatively consistent, it just hasn’t been able to get him there, especially recently. Though he has been putting up some decent speed numbers, on a cosistent basis recently, he will be surrounded by some talented younger horses doing some of the best running of their careers. His last two starts have been far from his best, and this is only his second start back after resting since last November. I look for a gallant effort from him here, but I don’t see it being enough to take him to the winner’s circle.