Kinlochleven narrowly favored in Winchester Cap
This weekend the New York track offers a special treat to fans of the miler division. Horses 3 years and older were invited from around the globe to participate in the tenth running of the G3 Winchester Cap. Run for $150k and a chance to hang onto the silver Winchester Cup for a year, trainers come from far and wide for a chance at adding this race to their charges’ list of victories. Some big names have shown up over the years. Hall Of Famer and Eclipse winner Enough Knock valiantly led the field in 1999 only to fall victim to a late charge from Opal Slew. Hall Of Famer Duke Ali picked up a big win on the lead in 2002. The most notable name form the last few years might just be Mr.Eko, the colt who took on elders as an early 3yo and still managed to pull off a huge third-place in 2007, but who couldn’t manage to beat Zygote asthe elder horse set a new stakes record in 1:33.4.
The morning line favorite at 4-1 is Monksfield’s Kinlochleven. The trainer has had some really nice horses over the years, most notably the Eclipse-winning filly Armed With Money. Kinlochleven is a 5yo son of Forty Niner, and a darn speedy horse. He’s done most of his damage sprinting, and in fact has yet to win going a mile or longer. Even so, he’s been right up there several times routing. Two back he ran fourth in the 8f Diplomat Way by just 2 lengths, last September in a mile listed stake finished second. Oddly, despite a pedigree supporting a bit more distance, he’s yet to go longer than 8.5f. Then again, when you have a horse run a 118SP as Kinlochleven did last out at 7f, or 120 as he did in November at 7.5f, you are understandably hesitant to rock the speedboat.
Wabred1’s Northern Bullet goes off as the 5-1 co-second betting choice. The 4yo Red Bullet colt is no stranger to huge speed figures, as evidenced by the 118SP he popped last out in winning the 8.5f G3 Big A Handicap. Snappa’s star colt is insanely good at 8.5f, but doesn’t have a ton of miling experience, and what he has has amounted to only an allowance win. Can he successfully shorten up to a mile against the super-speed of Kinlochleven as that colt stretches out? Will it leave the race wide open for a more lightly-regarded entrant? If the track had been muddy I’d love Bullet’s chances, but on a fast track I just don’t think he can shorten up to a flat mile with success.
Also at 5-1 is the 4yo Hennessy colt Wooden Minister. He’s a G1 winner at 8 panels, despite a pretty short racing career. Just two ticks off the stakes record, the Minister took hope the prize in the Sterile Mile two back, posting a great 115SP. Trainer Pogs1 (aka Pogook) had to be disappointed when the colt finished off the board for the first time ever last time out in the G1 Delaware Mile, but given the horse is now returning after an 11-week break, it appears he may have injured. Off such a long vacation it’s tough to love him here, but this is one gutsy horse. Still, I’ll give him better odds in his next start.
Crown’s Atlantis King is one of two at 8-1. Trained by Tulloch, the 4yo son of Dixieland Band backs up to a mile for the first time in almost a year. He’s got a great 2:1-1-0 record at 8f, but only in maiden company. Back to back strong races at 85 in his last two starts have to have the trainer thinking he’s got a potential star in the King, but will he live up to the promise? Have to love his ability to take the lead or settle back as needed, but he’s not making his graded debut a particularly easy one, and I’d want to see him successfully take a mile stake before trying the big boys. Still, if you’ve got to try two big changes at once, this isn’t a horrible place for it to happen.
Disco Ball is the second 8-1 horse. He’s trained by Beefcake2, and at the ripe old age of 5 the Glitterman son doesn’t seem quite ready to head off for retirement. Sure, the three straight losses hurt, but hey, just in December he popped a pair of 110+ speed figures. Disco has never had a ton of luck in graded company, his best finish a second in a 7.5f G3 last May, but here’s why I like the horse anyway: He hasn’t gone two turns in almost a year, but when he did he was rocking along hitting the board in all of his last four routes. He’ll need to break sharply to have a prayer, but if he’s within a length at the first call, he’s got a good shot.
Grandslam’s The Lake Effect is the first of our 9-1 trio. He’s a 5yo son of Salt Lake still searching for his first graded win after five tries. Despite the relatively poor record in big stuff, he’s no slouch on the track. Indeed, a pair of mile listed wins, plus a couple more at 8.5f, says this is a good horse just looking for his breakthrough. Like Northern Bullet, Lake is much more consistent on a wet track, but he’s still darn good on fast. The string of 105+ figures at the 7.5-8.5f range prove that. His best SPs are a good 10 points below the best of his peers, but he’s still more than fast enough to win here if he gets a bit of racing luck.
It’s been a while since I last saw a Robscoobi horse in a dirt route grade. Nice to see Skeleton Keymaker in representing the Scoobzilla stable. The 5yo son of Kingmambo just hit a 108SP in an 8.5f allowance, which might be jut the tightener he needed for a successful return to grades. The Keymaker’s best graded finish (in three tries) was a second in the 8.5f Ecliptic last May. A pair of nice mile wins since and the old boy still looks good. It helps that he’s making career start #25 here; over-raced the Keymaker is not. He needs to break on the lead or right up close, and stay there, to have a real chance.
Stellar4’s Ancestral Vision is the final 9-1 shot. Trained by Deadinthelane, the 4yo Smarty Jones colt comes back to a mile after three decent but less than superb 8.5f efforts. Gotta love the horse at a mile where’s he’s undefeated in two tries. The lifetime high 113SP (four starts ago) says Vision is the real deal at a flat mile. He’s tried grades 3 times at 8.5-9f, running sixth or worse every time, but should find more success shortening up.
Bhoffman’s 4yo Smart Strike colt Smart Buck goes off at 10-1. He’s making his second start in graded company; the first was a not-so-good seventh in the 8.5f Fus Gonner last April. With just one other stake behind him (an eighth two back at 8.5) the colt has a lot of questions to answer. However, he’s even putting up 100+ SPs in seven of his last 8 starts, and has a high SP of 112 earned in open allowance company. If he can put up a placing, he’ll merit a stronger look next time out.
Sdmf9 (aka Zewango) enters the 16-1 Thick and Thin. The Forty Niner 4yo managed a graded placing as a juvenile, then a sixth and fourth as a 3yo in Derby preps. In the last year he’s notched a pair of allowance wins but nothing earth-shattering. However, the much-improved SPs (six 103+ in last 8 starts) are more than good enough to merit another graded try. I suspect he’ll close well but run out of room at a mile, yet this could still prove a solid setup for an 8.5-9f try next out.
This time last year Henianlauch was hot on the Derby trail. Trainer Crandyiv successfully pulled longer distances out of his Hennessy colt, picking up a third in the G1 Bluegrass. It was pretty clear the colt needed to stay a bit shorter, however, and backed up to the mile range he’s found a bit of success in the last year. A third in a mile G3 and a win against NWRC company in the annual residency championship at a mile were highlights. With just four victories the colt has been short on wins, but he has a sneaky habit of outrunning his odds, which are 31-1 here. Could be due for an extended break after SPs have begun to taper off. Then again, if he can break fast and stay out front early, as he hasn’t been allowed to do of late, that might be the ticket to victory.
Delpendude (aka Topicount) enters the 41-1 Golden King. With just three wins from 12 starts, this 4yo Forty Niner colt is far from a household name. However, he’s got a master trainer, and the pair of recent mile wins this year in allowance company make the step up a logical one. Even if that step skips right over the usual listed tryout. He likes to sit just behind the lead, but his faster and more experienced peers will probably take that spot unless the King improves mightily.
The final entrant at 98-1 is Cat Charm Ted. If you wonder why he’s at such long odds, a quick glance at his birth certificate tells the story. The Silver Charm colt is a mere 3yo, taking on the big boys like Mr.Eko did last year but without the depth of success Mr.Eko brought to the race. While it’s rather difficult to support a youngster against his more experiences elders, one must still respect Ted for taking the leap. The Charm has two wins from eight starts, one at 5.5f and one at 9f. Top SP of 95 would be competitive against his own age group, but it’s a whopping 25 points below the best of this crowd.
Kinlochleven is the clear class, and it’s hard to pick against him. Despite being so heavily supported by the bettors, there are too many questions about Northern Bullet and Wooden Minister for me to want to risk wagering on them. Ancestral Vision intrigues me as a horse with a lot of upside. The Lake Effect doesn’t have the speed of the favored horses, but he does have the rail post and a great last start. For some value, I’ll go with a Kinlochleven/Ancestral Vision/The Lake Effect ticket.