The CON RIZZO Challenge
A field of five older male horses will run in the feature stakes this week in
1- SOCRATES LL 26-12-2-1 R Pollard 9/5
Stable tonydog WAR CHANT x HALO x
6 Year Old Homebred Light Grey Horse
Socrates LL has the highest dosage index in the field (3.53), yet he has never run in a sprint and he has won at the two mile distance. He is 3 for 6 lifetime on the dirt, but he has never gone this distance on the dirt. He posted a career high 111 SP three races back at 13F and is 5 for 7 at two miles. He also has the seasoned veteran jockey R Pollard on board, who was the winner of the stakes here last week. Despite the higher DI, Socrates LL has proven that he can go the distance, however, he comes in to the race on just a 14 day layoff and I do not know if he will be on his best game- even if he came up sharp for this week.
2- AL HIRT 29-8-4-3 W Gray 3/5
Stable zooomr DIXIELAND BAND x KRIS S. x BOLDNESIAN
5 Year Old Homebred Brown Horse
Al Hirt comes in as a heavy favorite, but he is a complete wild card in this race on Saturday. He has never tried to go past 10.5 furlongs and a 5.5 furlong jump will be very difficult to handle. His dosage index is 2.14, which makes sense, because he has been super successful between 9 and 10.5 furlongs recently. He has run at least a 98 SP in his last 19 races, all but one of which came between 9 and 10.5 furlongs. He likes to close to get his wins at those distances, but I am not sold that he will close at the right time on Saturday and he might fade badly in the final half mile.
3- EGO 46-3-9-4 C Riddle 94/1
Stable sherman10
7 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Horse
I do not know how a horse named Ego can continuously take shots to his own ego. He has run in five consecutive stakes and he has only beaten one horse in those races combined. He has never tried more than 13 furlongs and he seems more comfortable between 9 and 10 furlongs. His dosage index is low (1.88), especially considering he is 3Sx3D bred to the brilliant chef-de-race Raise a Native. I think his connections would be well suited to run him in a claimer at 10F for nw1x or nw4L. He is 94/1 for a reason.
4- OLD
Stable a2912 LIDO PALACE (CHI) x OLD
5 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Horse
Old Lido(CHI) has a weak 8 point dosage profile and a 3.00 dosage index, however he strongly proved last September that he can handle this distance. He made a massive jump from starter allowances to a grade I stakes (G1- World Cup Survivor) and he was also trying two miles for the first time that day. He ran an impressive 100 SP, which was good enough for second place in the 500,000 dollar race. He struggled mightily in his next three races, however, so he comes in to Saturday’s race after a three month layoff. I like his chances to compete, especially considering the only horse to beat him in the World Cup, is the fifth ranked horse in the division, Miracle To Me.
5- DESTINY STRIKES(KY) 16-3-4-2 M Garry 9/2
Stable fourhooves A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS x NIJINSKY II
4 Year Old Homebred Brown Colt
Destiny Strikes(KY) joins Old Lido(CHI) as the second horse in this field to have gone two miles on the dirt. He also has the lowest DI in the field (1.70) and a super impressive 50 point dosage profile, so the breeding suggests that he should love this distance. His performance at this distance is also good enough to back up his pedigree, considering he is 3-0-1-1 at 16F on the dirt. He also ran a career high 103 SP at this distance in his last race, which was of the same distance, surface, and class. That effort was good enough for third in a field of ten, which included the 26th ranked horse in the division, Dynamambo. I think 9/2 is an excellent value on this horse, especially considered the 3/5 favorite is such a wild card.
FINAL ANALYSIS
I would bet the #5 Destiny Strikes(KY) to win on Saturday. For more information on dosage and the dosage index, go to either of the following links: