No Clear Favorite To Be Found, Filly and Mare Turf

By, Sremel

Get out your magnifying glasses, lucky socks, and break a pen to see where the ink falls…No clear favorite to be found in this full field of fillies and mares.  Featuring last years Filly and Mare turf champion, three End of Year Award winners, and the daughters of two hall of fame horses, including the all time great, Spiced Turtle; if this race doesn’t send you to the windows or make you select “all” on the pick six…I am not sure what will. 

1.  PARRISH HILL  4yo Filly  16: 7-5-3 $3,968,810     10-1

Scratch:  TAPIT x SADLER’S WELLS x BLUSHING GROOM

Trainer:  winterset

Breeder:  winterset

First to step into line, this four year old champion filly appears to be tailing off.  Although her last four races were all top four finishes, she just has not been able to find the winners circle.  At first glance you might think she would be on a ticket in the exotics but that would be ignoring a few key items.  First, two of those four starts were against the males.  She may find some class relief stepping back in with other fillies and mares.  Second, all these races were at 12 furlongs.  While this may not be considered a plus by most it makes me take a second look.  She has actually never started at 11 furlongs, having jumped from 8 furlongs out to 11.5.  This cutback might actually benefit her as she has thrown her highest speed figure at 11.5 furlongs.  She is also undefeated at 11.5 which suggests to me the 11 furlongs might be right in her wheelhouse and she could easily show herself well here as well as pass the four million earnings mark.  

2.  MAP THE DEEP  4yo Filly  23: 9-5-3 $665,010     9-1

Scratch:  DEEP IMPACT x STORM CAT x KINGMAMBO

Trainer:  vix

Breeder :  vix

This next contender is another horse that might enjoy the 11 furlongs.  Her top speed figure (117) came in a listed 11 furlong in which she led the entire race.  There is a good chance she will try for the lead again, and if she does will have only one or two other contenders to battle.  Her last two efforts were fairly lackluster and she did get wheeled back from a 12 furlong to 9 furlong last out in two weeks.  I would easily throw out that effort however she has never had a break and I suspect she is becoming a tired filly.  If she returns to her 11 and 11.5 furlong form she could put in a good effort here, especially if she shakes loose on the lead.  

3.  NATIONAL ATTACK  3yo Filly  7: 2-0-2 $560,414     92-1

Mare:  NATIONAL DEFENSE x MISWAKI x SEATTLE SLEW

Trainer:  ozzie

Breeder :  ozzie 

Very lightly raced this three year old filly comes in to challenge her elders for the first time and the odds are not liking the spot.  She has yet to crack the 110 mark in speed figures with her highest being a 105.  She took over half her starts to break her maiden but did immediately follow that up with a G1 win at 10.5 furlongs in the French Diana.  After a cutback last out she will need to jump forward greatly to hang with the older horses and I am not certain she can at this point in her career.  I can easily throw out her last start for being too short but I think she will be a better filly with some age and might find herself outfooted on the way home.  

4.  PHRONBAWI LV  4yo Filly  17:  6-4-2 $1,703,990       9-1

Hemare:  DUBAWI (IRE) x FRANKEL (GB) x RAINBOW QUEST

Trainer:  bizalls15

Breeder :  bizalls

Another up and coming filly that would have preferred for this race to be 12 furlongs she will be looking for a strong pace that I am not sure she is going to get.  With her closing style this filly has been pretty consistent despite needing to work her way through traffic.  She is a multiple grade one winner that has struggled outside the 12 furlong distance.  Her year started off with with two races that we would want to look at for clues her however both were coming off three months or more in rest.  That would concern me however I think it might be a matter of scheduling around that time that a plaguing injury seeing as she has provided strong performances, just not ones that would find the winner circle.  With more consistent racing, though still usually two months between races, I think she should run well here and I am not quite as worried about the distance when looking at those two races that are closer to the 11 panels.  

5.  CARAMELIZED OAT  4yo  Filly 19:  8-4-2 $1,300,435       8-1

Hemare:  DUBAWI (IRE) x SEBRING x SADLER’S WELLS

Trainer:  given

Breeder :  given

Out of the one and only Hall of Famer, two time horse of the year, and 20 million dollar earner, Spiced turtle; this young filly has possibly the biggest shoes to fill in the sim.  She is proving herself worthy of her hemare by not only becoming a graded winner and then following that up with a grade one (which I imagine was a huge relief for her trainer).  Coming in off three streaking wins she is looking to make her mark and bring home the Breeders Bowl win, something her famous father never attempted.  I see no questions about the distance, though she might prefer the 12 furlongs, she has been consistent and strong in 11 furlong distances.  Her last out speed of 116 would beat most here and her 110 over 11 furlongs definitely puts her in the mix.  She could easily make this a fourth win in a row and what an amazing achievement it would be. 

6.  A JOY TO BEHOOVE  4yo Filly  14:  6-1-1 $1,078,894     13-1

Mare:  REDOUTE’S CHOICE x KITTEN’S JOY x A.P. INDY

Trainer:  mkbargain

Breeder :  mkbargain  

The only foal out of a grade one winning mare this filly is looking to provide even more incentive to her owner/breeder to go back to her dam.  She beat the boys last out for her first graded win which also happened to be grade one company, something many others here faltered in trying.  Fairly new to the graded ranks this filly might have inflated odds just based off her lack of attempts at the distance as well as her lack of graded tries.  She has found the winners circle nearly fifty percent of the time.  It is hard to argue with the success this filly has had.  Even her lack luster performances had some excuses; first time against graded and then first time in grade one.  She sneaks in here looking to turn back the distance and prove her ability in this ultra competitive field.  

7.  BOSS STONE  4yo Filly  18:  7-3-3 $506,616     12-1

Scratch:  MENDELSSOHN x SADLER’S WELLS x SECRETARIAT

Trainer:  sacredheart

Breeder :  francua4

Another sleeper at 12-1 odds that I think could easily be an upset type.  This mare has one graded win. Her win came at 11 furlongs over MAGNIFLY and she ran a 114.  After that she stepped into longer distance race then all the way back to 10 furlongs, both which proved to be a bit less to her liking.  This will be only her second chance at a grade one, which might be the reason for her odds.  11 furlongs might be just the sweet spot for this lovely filly and she could leave this field in the dust she rumbles on by.

8.  FACTOR  5yo Mare  21:  10-4-0 $2,473,296        7-1

Mare:  WAR FRONT x TANINO GIMLET x GALILEO (IRE)

Trainer:  gowans3

Breeder :  gowans3

The other half of the lukewarm favoritism, this mare has multiple graded wins to her name and rarely runs lower than a 110.  There is no question as to why she is vying for the role as the favorite though she is following the same trajectory as last year which saw her come home sixth in this race.  She took some pasture time after the Breeders Bowl last year and came back with a paid workout in an allowance back in April.  Since then she has only run three times so she is saving her starts up and definitely could be a more fresh horse than she was this time last year.  She will need to find the performance she threw in a listed a year ago in which she came home by daylight over 11 furlongs, but that performance shows that she can throw high numbers at this distance.  Look for her to show more than she did last year.

9.  SPECIAL SENSE  5yo Mare  21:  8-2-3 $527,523     11-1

Mare:  STREET SENSE x CURLIN x SUPER SAVER

Trainer:  zibby

Breeder :  zibby

Arriving off three wins by daylight, one could say this filly has the most room for improvement of the bunch.  In fact her first and only graded attempt was her last start, in which she won a grade two by a widening half length.  The start before that she ran a 113 to win an 11 furlong listed, a number that puts her well in the ranks of this group at this distance.  She completed that race by daylight as well with a length and three quarters back to her closest rivals.  While the winning margins have dwindled in her last three starts she was always first to the wire and is making a case for herself as the improving, now, horse; which helps a lot in these championship races.  She has the speed figures and could keep the streak alive.  If not, look for her to still keep improving as she has found that she likes the added distances.

10.  APPLYING FORCE  4yo Filly  17:  6-5-2 $928,612     10-1

Mare:  AIR FORCE BLUE x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x FLYING SPUR

Trainer:  billn

Breeder :  billn

Unlike most of this field, Applying Force has found most of her success in the 10 – 11 furlong races.  This could greatly benefit her here as so many others might just need that extra furlong while she has excelled right in this area.  Her lone try at 12 panels saw her run a 99, her only speed figure lower than a 110 since December 2020.  She is also new to the graded ranks and picked up her first and only graded win in a grade one two starts back over 10 furlongs.  Her versatility will find her well here since she has won both on the lead and stalking, giving her options should she find herself alone or shuffled back.  She has two stakes wins from three tries at the 11 furlongs; her only loss at the distance coming from fading to third after a frontrunning effort.  There are a couple other speed horses in here so I see her preferring to stalk though she has enough speed to put her in the top flight and perfect position.  This is another that could pull out the win as much seems to be to her liking. 

11.  MAGNIFLY  5yo Mare  19:  7-4-2 $966,739       8-1

Mare:  DEEP IMPACT x GALILEO (IRE) x DYNAFORMER

Trainer:  italst9

Breeder :  italst9

Daughter of Hall of fame mare MAGNIFORMA, this filly is looking to buck the family trend.  This will be the third start from this family in the Breeders Bowl Filly and mare turf and the previous two did not provide the best results.  That said this mare is coming in off a strong season that saw her post five speed figures over 110.  Her 115 in an 11 furlong listed puts her in the top here and although she faltered over the same distance three starts back I am willing to forgive the effort in light of it being grade one company against males.  She will find herself in good company here but she definitely could handle them turning into a millionaire and bringing home the highly sought after win her dam and sister failed to achieve.  

12.  ROCKIN IN D JUNGLE  5yo Mare  22:  10-0-3 $581,110   7-1

Mare:  FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x DEEP IMPACT x A.P. INDY

Trainer:  zkingab4

Breeder:  kingab

Throwing some of the strongest speed figures in this field could find this mare in the winners circle, though I am unsure if she likes the distance.  Clearly dominant at 12 panels I have learned never to doubt or count out a horse trained by kingab.  The odds also suggest so, installing her as the luke warm co-favorite here.  Her last out was not up to her usual standards and she will be traveling in from overseas so there are a few questions that might make someone look elsewhere.  It is hard to look past a mare that has found the winners circle nearly fifty percent of the time and her 119 three starts back would dominate here if she can bring that to the table over this distance.  She is also the daughter of a mare who ran third in this race; I for one will not be throwing her out.   

13.  USA VS THE WORLD  5yo Mare  28:  8-8-4 $2,411,243      19-1

Mare:  SEA THE STARS x NUREYEV x DYNAFORMER

Trainer:  ajerkens

Breeder :  bohemia

Back to defend her title, this mare is looking to pull off an upset by doubling her winning odds from last year as well as doubling fan’s surprises.  Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment.  With 28 starts and almost two nad a half million to her name she could be looking for one last great performance before providing her owner with a nice foal.  Unlike last year she is not coming off a series of strong races though she did come home by daylight in an 11 furlong allowance in August.  If she gets a strong pace upfront she could close well since she clearly likes the distance, though for me it would still be a surprise.  

14.  SKAFTAFELL  5yo Mare  20:  7-5-5 $2,466,190       8-1

Hemare:  ACCLAMATION x GALILEO (IRE) x MONSUN

Trainer:  suicidas3

Breeder :  suicidas3

Out of a Grade 1 winning mare, this Champion herself has had a rough season.  She has missed the winners circle since an allowance win back in August of 2020 but it is not for a lack of trying.  With five starts this year, the last four against males, she has yet to be off the board.  There is no doubt the class is present and stepping back against the fillies might find her getting her first win in over a year with the class relief.  She will have to cutback to the 11 furlong distance which may not prove to her liking though she has produced good numbers over 10 furlongs.  

My Picks:  

10:  Likes the distance, newly improving, should get a good setup trip.  

7:  Rolling Late, likes the distance

5:  Streaking, love the breeding

1:  Tough post, class relief, should show up like always

Good luck to all and to all a safe trip.