Jesus Walks along Route Six Six toward Florida glory
Some say a great horse needs a great name. After all, you don’t see StupidLil Boy or MyName is Mud among the headliners at graded races around the country. Sure,it really does help to at least have some (okay, a lot of) talent to back upthe name, but a strong name seals the deal. Which makes this year’s field liningup for the G2Fountain of Ute a notable one. Each and every one of the 14 entrantshas a legitimate chance to win this $200k 8.5f event on the Florida main course.
Last year’s Ute winner, Degoldenstorm, certainly fits the mold of a great horse with a great name. Tenpin4’s 2005 Juvenile Champion took the race in style, winning by almost two lengths with a huge 106SP. Anticosti, hero of the 2005 Fountain, had a strong name to pair with his 1 3/4 length win (and 111SP). Just hearing the name Stormy Bluff II evokes memories of his amazing 4 1/2 length victory in 2004. Then there’s Supertoy7’s Super Champ, who made no bones about his abilities with 3 3/4 length win in 2001. The only horse not to fit the mold, strangely, is the record-holder. He matches the talent description, of course. A horse doesn’t win this prestigious event by 5 1/2 lengths by accident. But, his name, Stupid Kingdom, is so far off the mark he’s the exception to prove the rule. The 1:41.2 record rule.
El Puente (Spanish for “The Bridge”) drew the rail post. Trainer Rafa has to be thrilled his colt will get to save ground all the way ’round, especially given his preferred running style. The Cat Thief colt, running out of the Har barn, loves to escape the gate fast and stay up front as long as his legs will let him. So far he’s carried his speed over a mile to victory, but that was in allowance company. In bigger and better stuff, he’s twice stakes-placed at a mile, both times not holding his lead in the stretch. El Puente has run 8.5f once, but that was in the rain which he clearly disliked. Watch for him to take advantage of the inside post and head straight for the lead. I doubt he can keep it given the caliber of closers, but he sure could be good for a placing as he makes his graded debut. Top SP of 99 earned miling. 12-1 odds.
Breaking from the second post will be Very Funny, running for the Kissnsocal stable. Flagdown’s youngster was a mere nose away from his first graded win last out in the Vermont is 4 Lovers festival. The race before he was moving up but over four back at the wire. Maybe in his third straight 8.5f start he can finally get the lead when he needs it? He’s got a nice deep-closing style that should suit him well for longer distances, but Very Funny could well find himself very short unless he gets more ground soon. At least he has a history of running high speeds (97 and 98 in his last two starts) to back him in his question for graded win #1. 14-1 odds.
Post 3 will hold the 14-1 Rahfleet for a short time. The Northern Afleet colt starts for the Millerfar4 barn, owned by Millerfarm. He’s a nice mid-pack runner, one of those solid horses everyone wants to own, but without the glitz and glamour of the top runners of this crop. Hard to be considered among the best of the best when you’ve only got a single win, after all. Still Rahfleet’s shown a willingness to dig in and run, with a pair of graded placings in four tries. Even in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, where he ran seventh (worst race ever), he was still less than four lengths out of a win. I’d love to see what this colt does at 10f. Top SP of 94 earned last out in a slowish but still respectable 8.5f listed stake.
Our 5-1 favorite, and the horse with the name most likely to earn assistance from above, is Jesus Walks, breaking from stall 4. Owned by Cvbear, the Came Home colt trains out of the Milesius barn. He’s one of the few of his generation to have already notched a par of triple-digit speed figures, making him a strong threat. The big question is distance. Early to be talking about distance limits (after all, no colt in this field has been running more than a year), but he looked so strong heading into the stretch and so tired heading out of it in an 8.5f listed stake last out that one has to wonder. But hey, he held on for third, displaying some real guts. Watch for Jesus Walks to stroll along in second or third, and pray that he has the stamina to hang on down the stretch.
If you don’t like divine intervention, how about some manmade explosives? Roman Plutonium is going to do his level best to outbreak Jesus Walks and slide right in front of him in a dash for the lead. His drive for daylight has served him well, earning nine top threes (five of them wins) in ten starts. What I like about his colt is the fact that he doesn’t have to be on the lead to succeed; as long as he’s second or third, he’s still a prime threat. Not as strong a one when he’s not out front, but still enough of one to worry opposing trainers. 11-1 from post 5 for the Leiter stable (owned by Chuckrock).
Ets is fast becoming a power word in sim lingo. Vegas Green Ets isn’t quite as good yet as his stablemate Bernie Ets, but the Trippi colt is starting to find his own path. That’s the stalker’s path, but not the creepy kind. Running under the Teddy2361 banner, Vegas is a two-time stakes winner (including one at 8.5f) but failed miserably in his first G1 attempt (the Vermont is 4 Lovers 9f race). Still, he’s G2-placed at a mile, and his high SP of 97 puts him within striking range here. Will need to see him run decently in this race to think he has a legitimate shot at the spring classics. 16-1 odds.
Listening should be well-positioned after a strong second in the G3 Giant Slayer five weeks ago. Nextbonus’ Bluegrass Derby hopeful starts from post 7, which should be just fine for the Eavesdropper colt. He generally starts pretty slow anyway, taking his time weaving through the pack before a furious stretch run. One drawback is his lack of wins; two in nine starts is not the record we want to see in Derby horses. However, he’s been top-3 in every start in the last six months, and I think he will need more ground to really show his stuff. In the meantime three 95+ SPs say he fits right in this crowd and even has an advantage in that he’s a proven performer in grades, tested at this distance, and well-versed in the art of handling a big field. The Foxvbullet stable just might notch another win. 8-1 could prove to be a bargain for this colt.
At 7-1, starting from post 8, is Gratest. Heck of a name for a colt who’s quickly earning a good reputation as a versatile runner. Trainer Theatrical is a master at getting the most from his string, but even he had to be surprised to see the Congrats colt pop a whopping 98SP in a listed stake last out. I know, what’s so special about a 98? Well, consider it was the horse’s only turf start, in a stake, and you get why people took notice. He’s a G2 winner at 85, and placed in the G1 Movieland Futurity. He’s also one of the few top-level colts to have won at 9f. So his drop back to 8.5 here is a bit of a surprise, given the prime objective has to be Kentucky in May. Have to think he’ll enjoy the cutback in distance, and the surface switch for some added mojo.
Speaking of great names, consider what trainer SDMF (of the Black Label stables in general and the Zwylde stable in particular) must have intended when he named his Mineshaft colt Mount Diablo. Visions of the devil battling Jesus Walks naturally arise. The colt’s so good that in just his fifth lifetime start he’s already headed for graded company. Of course, he earned his way in by virtue of a perfect 4 for 4 record including a listed win by a half-length last out. Three of his four wins (all against open company) have been wire to wire finishes. The only outlier (if one can call it that) was when the colt was headed out for the lead for the first half of what turned out to be a sound Diablo drubbing of his DelPenn playmates. Have to love the colt’s continuing efforts to improve SPs at each new challenge, and you know this is a trainer skilled at getting horses ready when they need to be. 10-1 odds.
Broohar’s War Front colt Held Two Ransom will wear #10 as he starts at 17-1. On dirt he has a 50% strike rate, winning 3 of 6, and 2 of 3 routes. Both route wins were at a mile, while going 8.5 his best (only!) finish was a fourth in the G1 Eruption. Hard to say if it was the strong competition or the added distance that was Ransom’s downfall, but he still finished well enough to support staying in bigger races. The biggest drawback to support for this colt is his time off. He’s been on vacation since DelPenn day, longer than any other colt in the field. Sometimes rest is a good thing. In this crowd, however, I suspect he’d need to have at least one easy prep between then and now to have a prayer. Would love to be proven wrong by the Marineboy stable resident.
He’s a Legendary Stud, alright, but does the 27-1 longshot have a real chance in this race? He represents the Desimster4 barn, operated by the Shamrock stables. Legend makes his graded debut a challenging one, as he also takes on open stakes company for the first time. He did try stakes back in October, but that was versus GR Simsters horses on a wet track. The most notable feature of Legend’s record is his 2007 campaign, consisting entirely of 9.5f allowances. With a win and a second, one would think the horse would prefer at least 9f, if not staying at 9.5. Alas, here he is, and against some really good horses. Top SP of 91 will win him more allowances, and even listed stakes, but is at least 8 points lower than what the winner will have to earn. Still, a nice Afleet Alex colt that should continue to improve as he matures.
Our second 7-1 entrant is Route Six Six, entered from the Chibound stable. Fabman’s Pulpit colt gets his first shot at a graded win after picking up a pair of the listed variety. He needs to be up front in order to win (yes, he’s won from second position, but that was almost a year ago in a sprint and I’m not counting it). Hasn’t won beyond a mile, but has only gone beyond a mile once, and that earned a stakes placing. Should be able to make the lead with relative ease, but can he hold it? A big question.
The 9-1 Corporate Finance wasn’t the most unlucky horse in the post draw. In getting #13 instead of #14, Natrap has to be happy that his Grandview stable change won’t be stuck way outside. The With Approval colt has rounded into an excellent sprinter, winning 7 of 10 dirt sprint starts. He did try a mile last November, but lost by over 14 lengths. Was he just tired in his ninth lifetime start? Was he saying “please don’t make me marathon?” Love that he’s riding a three-race win streak (six if you toss that mile disaster), but this is a horse of layoff due to exhaustion. He does have a nice 101SP last out to put in the plus column.
Finally, we come to post 14. That’s what Eddie drew for Fall Out Boy, the third 7-1 entrant. The Boy is a Pivotal colt, and a darn good one at that. For the Eddielegg stable, Boy just won the G3 Giant Slayer to equal his own lifetime-high 99, and ran third in the G1 Eruption on Del Penn Day. Prefers to come from a ways back, which means he’ll have plenty of time to exit the gate, turn left, and settle in for a ground-saving run toward the rail at the rear of the pack. Never been out of the money on dirt, and looks to me to continue that streak here.
Chatter in the sim’s chatroom earlier this week put Gratest as the horse to beat. Makes sense, as his trainer is a sim genius, and he’s a lovely horse with some great speeds. However, I’m taking a different tack with a Fall Out Boy – Very Funny – Mount Diablo ticket. FOB’s got good speed, looks to be getting better, and should enjoy closing against the wealth of speed. Very Funny is on my list for similar reasons, though I have a hard time picking him for the win due to his apparent need for more ground. I’m pulling Diablo in as a third horse because he’s so very different from the first two. With a swift turn of foot he’s guaranteed to be up there at the wire, but I’m betting he’ll be run down late.