Toboggan Handicap

Toboggan Handicap
Grade III
Seven furlongs
Fast Dirt
$125,000
All horses, 3 years old and up

Welcome to New Jersey for the feature on todays card, the Grade III Toboggan Handicap of the extended sprint distance of 7f. There is a full field of fourteen and it looks a really competitive renewal today with the favourite being at 7/1 on the morning line and seven others being within three points of that. Lets take a look at the runners-

IN A SIMPLE RHYME

Been running in Grade I and II events recently and had put up some big numbers, until his last run. Was that due to a change in riding instructions or was it a sign that he’s now on the downgrade. He has won over this trip though and posted a 111 sp when doing so. Likes to come from the back of the pack, and that is always a risky strategy. Definite chance if that last run is ignored, could be in trouble if it’s a sign of things to come.

AB FAB

Veteran with plenty of winning Graded form, including over this trip but his best recent sp’s leave him a liitle to find with the best of these. He is consistant though if if one or two others don’t run to their best he could reach the money. He has a srange way of running, up with the pace early before dropping back by midway and then coming with a late charge. Could suggest he would be worth trying at a mile.

DISCO BALL

Another veteran but he has less recent graded form. His two recent graded runs have resulted in a sixth and a tenth place. Not much form there. Two recent runs at this trip have given sp’s of 110 and 112 but those runs stand out amongst the general 100-105 sp’s. Should be a few too good today and I can’t see him making the frame.

SECAUCUS SEVEN

This one’s seems to have gotten better the older he has got. Three of his seven lifetime wins have come in his last five races, with the other four scattered over twenty seven runs. He didn’t break the 100 sp barrier until his twenty fifth run and this is his first graded try. There are a couple of worries for me though- can the improvement continue after so many runs at his age and graded company is a big step up in class from overnight stakes. Not without an outside chance but I can’t see him reaching the money.

K’S STATE OF MIND

Lots of consistant graded form on offer here with most of his runs producing sp’s in excess of 110. That puts him in the big league and is why he’s favourite on the morning line. Looks nailed on to reach the top three any of the others will have to be at their very best to deny him the win. Likes to race midfield which should mean he can easily cover any moves, especially from the closers in this field. Worthy favourite with a favoutites chance.

HUNTER CREEK(KY)

A little less exposed than most of these and clearly still has some improvement left. His last run  of a 111 sp over 6.5f when he was closing at the finish suggests todays trip could be perfect and with another recent sp of 115 he could be the one they all have to beat. If he finish’s outside the top three I’ll eat my hat and in fact I expect him to win a he clearly has the pace to cover all moves.

SHAWNEE STARK(KY)

The morning line price of 27/1 looks a bit silly for a horse with four sp’s in a row over 100 and he should be more like 12/1. that said though he will have to run 10 points above his best to date to win this and that looks a very tall order. May improve enough to reach the top five but only if some of the others have an off day.

TWELFTH KNIGHT

Don’t know what to make of this one- won a very good percentage of his races including a Grade III but mostly in allowance and stakes races. Generally runs around the 106 mark but has a four recent runs over 110. Then there was that last run, only a 92 in an overnight stakes for no apparent reason. If that run was a blip he must have a great chance of reaching the money but if not he’ll be last.

SKAHAZADHAN

Another steady performer at graded level but for me his best recent runs have all been at 7.5f- 8f. His only recent sub 100 sp was over 6.5f so the question is obvious- is this trip too short or is it just right? One things for sure, he’ll be busting a gut to lead but can he hold on? On sp’s alone he may just hang on for a top three and should certainly reach the top five.

HOLLOW HALO(KY)

Another who is relatively lightly raced and who’s been putting up solid numbers at stakes level. Only two recent wins though and they were both over 7.5f when he got up in the shadow of the post. Seems to be crying out for a mile, not the drop to 7f. With the trip being too short I expect a midfield finish for him today.

STARK RAVING OIL(CA)

Some very good recent graded runs but is another with that disaster of a last run. Once again is it a blip or is the start of a downward spiral? He was no more than ordinary for most of his career and I suspect the last few good runs were a bit of a last hurrah. Not for me today.

DEATH ALLEY DRIVER

Lightly raced for a five year and has a sparkling last run of 116 over todays trip. That was in a restricted stakes however and I’m always reluctant to take those sp’s at face value- you just don’t know about the quality of the other runners. He has only one other run over 110 and the balance of his form suggests he could reach the top five but not much more.

WALKSTHROUGHWALLS

Yet another with a huge run latest but that along with his other 110 run was over 7.5f . I wonder if he might be worth another try over 8f although even today he will be vying for the lead from the off. With at least one other serious front runner in the field they could cut each others throats. On the rest of his runs he won’t reach the top five and I suspect that will be the case today.

MAD DROPPER(KY)

Has won a graded race and a couple of stakes early in his three year old days but has only won in allowance company since. His best sp was over this trip but even then he’ll need some of these to have poor runs to reach the top five.

I said at the start that this was a tough one to call and if they all run to their best that would be true. But they won’t and for me two runners stand out. K’S STATE OF MIND and HUNTER CREEK and with two front runners to set the race up I think HUNTER CREEK should just prevail.