The BEAU’S PROSPECTS Special

A full field of fourteen three year old colts will run in the feature stakes this week in Alabama. They will go a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt course in this ungraded stakes and the winner will take home $39,000 of the $65,000 purse. Although none of these horses have a very high divisional ranking (highest is ranked 48^th), this race could be a considered a minor Bluegrass Derby prep if someone here can run a great SP (100+) and win going away. However, I would not bank on seeing any of these horses running for the roses on the first Saturday in May.  

1- SLAMMIN G’(KY) 10-3-5-1 S Thornton 5/1

Stable sweetie GRAND SLAM x A.P. INDY x COZZENE

Slammin G’(KY) drew the rail for Saturday and was installed as the lukewarm 5/1 morning line favorite. He is 2-1-0-0 at 8.5F and is out of a grade “G” mare that did all of her damage in routes. He bounced last time out in his first race as a three year old at the same distance and in the same class. Against a smaller field that day, he ran 8^th and saw a ten point SP drop to an 87 from his previous effort. I think he might be better suited for an NW3x or NW4L allowance and he is one favorite to bet against.

2- THE BRASS RAIL(KY) 4-2-2-0 M McKyer 13/1

Stable fairhaven6 TOUCH GOLD x POLISH NUMBERS x RIVERMAN

The Brass Rail(KY) is lightly raced, but he has never finished outside of the exacta. All four of his races have been in Pennsylvania with the same jockey, so his connections must be confident if they are shipping him down here. Both of his wins have come at a mile and he ran a career high 92 SP in an A-9900NW2L race last time out. This is a massive jump in class from that race and a large field may make him uncomfortable. He likes to be at or near the front and it may be tough for him to do that against the speediest horses he has ever faced.

3- SEEKING SUCCESS(KY) 12-4-1-2 B Barger 9/1

Stable mjclooch SUCCESSFUL APPEAL x SEEKING THE GOLD x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR

Seeking Success(KY) is out of a grade “G” mare who won all of her races in sprints, but she has produced three winners from three foals. His connections were smart enough to claim him for 10000 October, because his SPs have been improving. He is 3-2-0-0 at 8.5 furlongs, but his best win came in an A-NW2X with a four horse field. He has never broken the 90 SP barrier and will need to do so Saturday to compete.

4- CITIUS(KY) 6-4-1-1 A Lee 10/1

Stable general CAME HOME x SEEKING THE GOLD x SADLER’S WELLS

Citius(KY) is out of a grade “G” mare who did all of her damage in dirt route and he is her first foal. He is 3-1-1-1 in dirt routes in his young career. After he debuted last July with a 74 SP, which was good enough for third in an MSW race, Citius(KY) has been extremely impressive. He ran second in a 20 horse field in his next effort and since then he has won four straight. The wins have come in a MSW, then in an A-NW2L, A-NW3L, and finally in an A-NW4L. Saturday’s race will be a big class jump, but he has shown the ability to handle a large field and he could easily hit the board.

5- FOUND ALIVE(KY) 6-3-1-0 C Riddle 7/1

Stable ticketman0 BLUEGRASS CAT x FORTY NINER x NUREYEV

Found Alive(KY) was 4-3-1-0 at a mile, before he tried to go a mile and a sixteenth in his first race as a three year old. That race was also the first time he tried an ungraded stakes and the step up in class might have thrown him out of his element. His SP (86) was not bad, but he ran seventh in a field of ten, in very similar conditions to what he will face Saturday.

6- BLIND FURY(MD) 6-2-0-1 M Ross 17/1

Stable nyuck NOT FOR LOVE x SECRETARIAT x NATIVE DANCER

Blind Fury(MD)’s career he been all about improvement. The finishes in reverse order of his career have been, seventh, fourth, third, sixth, first, and first. The SPs in reverse order of his career have been, 64, 71, 73, 72, 82, and 89. While he has improved a correlation should be made to the fact that his connections have stretched the length of his races. All of this means he is 2-2-0-0 in dirt routes and his career high SP did come at 8.5F, but he takes a big jump to ungraded stakes level Saturday.

7- SUNDAY SILVER(KY) 7-1-3-1 C Whittle 17/1

Stable manature SUNDAY BREAK (JPN) x LURE x SILVER BUCK

Sunday Silver(KY) only has a MSW win to his credit, but he did have a successful two year old campaign. He never finished out of the top five and finished the year by running second in an ungraded stakes at a mile, the 90 SP he posted that day was also a career high. He will end a two month layoff Saturday and finally debut as a three year old against this full field. The upside is that he ran second against a full field as a 21/1 shot last year, so he could be a playable long shot if you can get over the ridiculous layoff.

8- GOLDEN CONCERN(OK) 6-2-1-0 P Frisby 12/1

Stable phillipj2 CONCERN x SEEKING THE GOLD x AL NASR(FR)

Golden Concern(OK) is out of a grade “D” mare who never won on the dirt. Much like Sunday Silver(KY) he could be a playable long shot, because his SPs have been improving coming in to this race. Saturday will mark his debut as a three year old and he needs to improve on his allowance level performances to compete.

9- GUEST HUNTER ETS(KY) 10-3-4-0 R Pollard 7/1

Stable bigted13 APTITUDE x ROY x BE MY GUEST

If the race sets up as a speed duel (which it very well could), do not be surprised if you see R Pollard guide this horse to the winners circle on Saturday. Guest Hunter Ets(KY) loves to come from the back of the pack and he showed he could do it at 9F in both of his last two races. He passed nine horses and to win by a combined 5.25 lengths in those two allowance races. He has only tried 8.5F once, which was also the only time he tried an ungraded stakes- and he finished a disappointed sixth that day (80 SP). He may not have to improve on his last two races on Saturday, but if he does he should win by a few lengths.

10- WIZARDS FIRST RULE(KY) 6-4-0-2 E Sharp 8/1

Stable aaafarms DYNAFORMER x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x MISWAKI

Wizards First Rule(KY) is based on a grade “E” he mare, who notched all ten of his wins on the turf. He ships to the America for the first time on Saturday after a successful two year old campaign on the dirt in Europe and Asia. His SPs have never gone down from a prior race and he comes in here with two consecutive 92 SPs. He is 2-1-0-1 at 8.5F and more importantly he is 3-2-0-1 in ungraded stakes races. He will find that the dirt races are a little tougher over here, but by drawing into a slightly weak field by stakes standards, I would not count him out on Saturday.

11- Perfect Order(KY) 6-2-0-0 M Garry 29/1

Stable acote6 PLEASANTLY PERFECT x DONERAILE COURT x UNBRIDLED’S SONG

Perfect Order(KY) ran his career high 81 SP at this distance, but I do not have much else to say that is positive about his chances on Saturday.

12- PRAY FOR RAIN RYRY(KY) 8-4-0-2 G Blinn 11/1

Stable ryry PULPIT x SUMMER SQUALL x SILVER GHOST

I am a little surprised that Pray For Rain Ryry(KY)’s connections are running this top 100 turf horse on the dirt. He is already a three time stakes winner on the turf and he has only tried the dirt twice. The only reason I can find is that he is out of a grade “D” mare who did all of her damage in dirt routes. A bet on him is tempting, but I am going to steer clear because I am uncertain of how he will handle the dirt.

13- GREAN MEANS PUTT(ENG) 5-2-0-0 R Sweeny 15/1

Stable marian1 GREEN DESERT x MIESQUE’S SON x TEMPERENCE HILL

Grean Means Putt(ENG) is out of a grade “C” mare who was a very successful dirt sprinter. In just his sixth career race, he will try 8.5F, which is longer than anything his mother ever tried. His mother loved the obscure 7.5F distance and he has taken a liking to it himself. He ran a career 93 SP last time out at the distance and that was good enough to win him an A-52300NW1X race. I have concerns about his ability to get the distance and I think the class might overwhelm him as well.

14- MULLINAVAT(KY) 8-1-3-2 A Timpson 6/1

Stable coug EL PRADO(IRE) x PLEASANT COLONY x ONE FOR ALL

Mullinavat(KY) is out of a grade “C” mare who had an equal liking for the turf and for dirt, but she most definitely preferred to route. I think he could have a very similar career as his mother, because he has shown already that surface is no object for him. He has the best last time out SP in the field with a 97, but I am inclined to believe that this horse could be cleaning up in the allowance ranks and that stakes races still might be a tough class for him. This, however, is a field that can be beat by a horse of Mullinavat(KY)’s caliber.

FINAL ANALYSIS

I like the #9 Guest Hunter Ets(KY) to win. He has the best jockey on him and the pace scenario should favor his running style. I also like a 9-10-14 trifecta box. The 4 and 7 are my long shots this week. I would play a 9 with 4-7-10-14 exacta to incorporate them into your betting. Best of luck at the windows on Saturday.