Eight colts in The WRITER ORANGE Stakes
Eight colts are competing for the $40,000 Writer Orange Stakes over the fast mile track this week. These 3yo colts are very much a mixed bag, some having yet to race in 2008, and all the trainers will be hoping for improved performances. Whilst the favourite looks good on paper he may struggle over this distance and leave a very open field to battle this one out. The betting is:
8/5 Tsf Academy(JPN)
9/2 Konois Step’n Sand (IRE)
5/1 Kela Indy(KY)
6/1 Classical Frolic(KY)
7/1 Seven Chevals(IRE)
9/1 Insanity Plea(KY)
10/1 Im Mining Gold(JPN)
11/1 Shreveport(FL)
Analysis
8/5 Tsf Academy(JPN) – #2
Trainer: zman
(Opera House(GB) x Lion Cavern x Forty Niner)
The warm favourite this week comes from Zman Stables and was bred from a reasonable F class dam. His 4 wins from 10 starts include 3 stakes successes as a 2yo, but his first outing this year over 8.5 furlongs proved to be slightly disappointing. One would imagine that there is a lot more improvement to come from this colt but that routes may not be his favoured distance. Another disappointing run here will probably see him returning to 6-7 furlongs in the future.
9/2 Konois Step’n Sand (IRE) – #8
Trainer: tremquis
(Footstepsinthesand(GB) x Fantastic Light x Efisio(GB))
A colt based on an F class horse who has a 100% record since switching to dirt. A 7.5 furlong victory in his last race suggests that the distance should not be a problem and he may have the stamina to get home in front of the favourite.
5/1 Kela Indy(KY) – #7
Trainer: graywolf5
(Kela x A.P.Indy x Youth)
An experienced colt from Wolf’s Den who has 3 wins from 12 runs. Out of a G class dam he makes a return to dirt after spending the second half of last year on turf, managing only to win a couple of restricted allowance races in the process. I’m not convinced that he will find any more success at this level but the increase in distance could well prove me wrong.
6/1 Classical Frolic(KY) – #3
Trainer: mannion
(Super Frolic x Regal Classic x Awesome Again)
Incredibly Mannion Stables send out this colt for his 4th run of the year – a gruelling schedule even for the older horses. With 2 wins from 11 runs he has proved to be tough and resilient in allowances, but has so far failed to shine in stakes races.
7/1 Seven Chevals(IRE) – #6
Trainer: sveningvar
(Chevalier (IRE) x A.P.Indy x Caro(IRE))
Eirann shady business farm send out this colt who was bred from a G class dam. He has 2 wins from 9 runs and improved greatly in his first 3yo race last time. Only had 1 stakes run so far but will be looking to improve on that 3rd place here after an excellent start to 2008.
9/1 Insanity Plea(KY) – #4
Trainer: mickbriant
(Toccet x Honor Grades x Vice Regent)
With just one win from 8 starts this colt from Briant Breeding & Racing Empire looks a lot better than those figures suggest. Yet to make his debut as a 3yo he could, if he improves sufficiently, casue a big surprise in this one. Certainly he is the each way bet of the race in my opinion, and his front running style will make him hard to catch in the stretch.
10/1 Im Mining Gold(JPN) – #5
Trainer: moleh
(Mining x Vaguely Noble x Bold Bidder)
With just 4 runs so far this colt from Liddleski Empire has a lot of improvement to come in order to get on terms with his more experienced rivals. His first run in 2008 should be interesting.
11/1 Shreveport(FL) – #1
Trainer: pleasnttap
(Macho Uno x Glitterman x Distinctive Pro)
The outsider from Timjbehr Stables was bred from an E class dam and has 3 wins from 6 starts. Won his last 2 starts on off-tracks so it will be interesting to see if he can make any improvement here on a fast surface in his first race as a 3yo. I can see some turf runs coming up for him in the near future.
Summary
I really don’t think the favourite, Tsf Academy(JPN), looked that convincing in his last race and believe he will struggle against Konois Step’n Sand (IRE). The one to watch though could well be Insanity Plea(KY) who, if he finds the sort of improvement I would expect, may well lead from start to finish.