Jack’s House looks for some classic love in Vermont Valentine G1
Vermont plays host to a huge card of graded races for horses across all sim divisions this weekend. One of the two G1s on the card is for 3yo colts. This big race, run for a half-million dollar purse, will be the first trip over 9f for 11 of the 14 entrants. In addition to being a big race in its own right, it’s also a nice preview of the big Bluegrass Derby preps to be run over the next two months. Thanks to the Pastures of Green residency for sponsoring the G1Vermont Is For Lovers 3yo dirt colt race.
Our 5-1 favorite is Blacklabel’s Jack’sHouse. The Golden Missile colt is riding a four-race win streak, themost recent a strong win in an 8.5f listed stake. He’s a speedball with the speedfigures to back up his place in the front of the pack. Watch for him to breakcleanly and surge to the front. Can he handle the jump to G1 class? Based onhow easily he took to listed stakes, there looks to be no problem. Stretchingout an extra sixteenth seems well within his reach as well.
Ghost In A Dancer’s getting some strong support at the betting windows. Triscay’s Ghostzapper colt is at 7-1 off the strength of successively better SPs. He took two months off after an excellent third in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, returning to post a lifetime high 96SP at a mile in a listed stake two weeks ago. He should be well-prepped, and shows every sign of needing 9f (and maybe a bit longer) to really shine. Will drop back to the last half of the pack and rest easy before trying to pull off a closing win.
One of two at 8- is Kbsweet’s Pyralis. The Breeders Bowl Juvenile runnerup just took home the winner’s trophy in the 8.5f G3 Silver Fence Derby three weeks ago. The 3 1/2 length score earned a 100SP, his best yet, but surely far from his best ever. The trainer is confident in her horse, and with excellent reason. Pyralis has run nine times, and placed in eight of those, demonstrating a strong will. He’s been improving with more ground, and should appreciate this distance.
The other 8-1 horse, Sardini, is trained by Punter41. The Bernardini colt took the G1 Movieland Futurity by a full length to close out his 2007 campaign. He came back in the G3 Silver Fence last month but never found his run, finishing a well-beaten tenth. His top SP is a 97 (from the Movieland), and he does have a 93 on record to back up the California race. The lack of a 100+ puts him second tier, however.
Suited Ak is the first of two at 9-1. Chilichili’s David Junior colt is a two-time stakes winner, and twice graded-placed. The best of the two graded starts was a heartbreaker in the G1 Arizona Diamond. Suited Ak ran the race of his young life to lose by just a nose. The 97SP was his best yet, but earned on a wet track. We know he’s got talent on a fast track, and we know he likes 9f just fine (and would probably prefer going longer). If he wins here, probably has a Derby spot sealed up.
Texasace’s Alydar Again has been mentioned by a few trainers as one to keep a close eye on. The Awesome Again colt won the G1 Arizona Diamond with a 97SP, pulling off a really gutsy win by just a nose over Suited Ak. You have to like the colt’s ability to dig in when the chips are down. He prepped for this one with an easy 3-length allowance win at 9f last out, making him the only horse with a perfect record at 9f in this race.
Rare to see a good Lenny horse at double digits odds, but we get one here in the form of The Gun Went Off. The Mineshaft colt, in at 10-1, is a G3 winner at 8.5, and has a placing at the same distance to boot. He’s a deep closing sort that really needs more ground to prove what he can do. Watch for him to be flying fast and furious late in the race. Top SP of 96 is good, but he’ll have to get better to win.
Those Ets horses are doing really well, as evidenced by the latest Derby hopeful Vegas Green Ets. Teddy2361 has hit on a nice but inexpensive pedigree with this Trippi colt out of a Cox’s Ridge mare. Vegas has managed a perfect ITM rate, and won four of eight. Only one trip in graded company, but it was a solid second in the G3 Cryogenics. Vegas prefers to hang within two to three lengths of the pace. If he’s close to the front going into the stretch, watch out. 10-1.
Scootboy’s 10-1 entrant Snatch It Back posted a nice 101SP last out in res-restricted company of all races. Turns out the EAAA has a really strong 3yo colt contingent this year. This colt is by Newfoundland, not a name we often see among the graded-quality horses. Just one loss in the last six months means this is a colt with a clear preference, and talent, for winning. The big concern is how he handles graded company. His only try at the top level, in the G1 Movieland, saw him lose by over ten lengths.
The hero of the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, Fleet Daisy, is oddly receiving little betting respect. He’s 12-1, despite earning himself an Eclipse, having the services of one of the sim’s best jockeys, W McClendon, and having earned over $1.5million in just eight starts. Depressing his odds are two turf starts, both decent efforts but neither earning good SPs. He prepped for this race in a turf G3 at 9f, finishing a good fourth. The surface switch should provide a nice boost. SPs are still a tad slower than he needs to win, but should improve nicely at minimum.
Adonai, blessed with the rail post, goes off at 14-1 for trainer Theprofit. He’s managed top-3s in nine of ten starts, faltering only the Breeders Bowl Juvenile (he finished twelfth). Does that mean the Afleet Alex colt has distance limitations? Perhaps. His four wins have all come at 5-6f. Sure, he placed in a mile G3, but the colt was pretty clearly tiring in each of his route starts.
The other 14-1 horse, Magical Danz, has been stuck in gate 14. So far he’s been sprinting only, and pretty successfully. Magicflute’s Kalanisi colt is a G3 winner and placed second in the G1 Lever Sparky Handicap on DelPenn Day. Finished worse than second just once, and that was in a turf debut. Hard to predict if he’ll like the distance, but class-wise this is right up his alley.
The 17-1 horse, Very Funny, is more good than funny if that 98SP last out is any indication. The It’s No Joke colt, trained by Kissnsocal, really broke through in mid-December. He won three straight to start his career, struggled in two mile starts, but lit up back at 8.5 in the G3 Pleasure to run second by under two. Assuming that last race was legit, this colt could be our next hot young Derby Trail contender.
The last entrant, at 22-1, is Socalman’s Telesio. The Bernardini colt has yet to break the 90SP barrier, but when you can win a stake by 3 as easily as Telesio did last out, you may not need to really show off. He’s undefeated at 8.5f, but in two graded tries has yet to rub better than sixth. Unlikely to win, but has the potential to acquit himself well.
These are all excellent colts more than capable of winning here. I like Alydar Again as a youngster poised to hit the big time, but you really have to think Ghost In A Dancer, Suited Ak, Pyralis, and especially Jack’s House are most likely to hit the board.