Mild Temps, Mile For Mile Headline Fridge
Last week, I was going to write my usual Arizona article. But I got distracted when I received an invitation to the Super Bowl in the mail.
I was gleeful, and celebrating, and raced over to Glendale to see if I could heckle Michael Strahan about the gap in his teeth. But I got ejected from the stadium before I had a chance—something about fraud, I dunno. Then I looked at my ticket, and I had misread. Instead of an invitation to the Super Bowl, I received a coupon for a Super Bowl of barley soup at a Sun City bistro. That’ll teach me to shirk my Sim responsibilities.
This week, after the Giants and Patriots left, the weather finally warmed up above normal. This is the Arizona winter weather people come for: a warm, sunny day, a firm Grand Canyon Turf Course, perfect weather for this weekend’s Arizona feature, the $55,000 Brave Fridge Challenge. This is the third running of this race in Arizona, with Make Me Forget and Salfly’s Wells winning in 2007 and 2005, respectively. (The 2006 running was canceled after turf conditions were deemed unsafe and political conditions were called treacherous. There was evidently a drainage problem which Australian engineers couldn’t solve, while at the same time the state franchise to operate racing had expired and all sorts of government blockheads kept the red tape and bureaucratic rhetoric from operating racing that weekend….hmmm, that sounds familiar…) This year’s race drew only four entries, each hopeful that they could set a stakes record and break the two previous runnings, both completing the mile and five-eighths in 2:46 4/5.
It’s a short field, but two favorites set themselves apart from the remainder. Here’s the field.
Mile For Mile(KY) [Kingmambo x Pleasant Colony, trained by fatflab for Jef’s Thoroughbred Club] is a 7/5 second choice among these, and in spite of a pedigree that doesn’t necessarily hint at 13-furlong success, he’s made a name for himself going long. He’s thrice (it’s a word!) stakes-placed, including twice at a mile and three-quarters, and managed a very respectable fifth last fall in the Grade I Millwood Cup. But recent form has tailed off, with the combination of facing heavier stakes foes coupled with the trip across the Pacific taking its toll on him. He hasn’t won since clearing his NW4L allowance condition at a mile and a half last fall, before the Grade I effort, but he’s a versatile runner, able to both close, lead and stalk with decent effect. Additionally, his speed figures at or about this distance do stand out in a small field. There’s a goulash of variety in terms of pace here this week, and only one, Hubbert’s Peak, looks like early speed here, so the conditions might be ideal for him to make a good late run. He’s been consistent if average against other stakes foes lately: sixth going shorter last out, a tired third in Oregon before that, and a tired third in Nebraska three back. But the game performances and the weak field may have prepped him nicely here. Owen Sweeney won on the debut of my first stakes winner Pueblo, and he gets the mount here in spite of being 0-for-2008 thus far in the meet.
Milladys Revenge(CHI) [Stagecraft(GB) x St. Hillarion, trained by minski1 for Gorytus Stables] is third choice in the field, and the only filly of the four. A small field is a good spot for a filly to face the boys, but it still requires the ability to back up the challenge. This being her twelfth start, the jury is definitely still out. She can run, and with that bargain pedigree she’s definitely a steal, plus she makes her late run from back in the field. She’s won four of her last eight since making the surface switch to the grass, and her speed figures as the distances increase do give some evidence on her behalf. But there are some pieces that trump this rather hard. First, she’s 0-for-1 at the distance, that loss coming last out in a stakes for fillies at Illinois. Then there’s being 0-for-3 against colts, though one of those races was a fairly game effort. Last is the fact that though her numbers have shown increases as the distances got longer, they peaked at 95 going a mile and a quarter, and have come down a bit running further than this. A short field is a decent way to pick up money and BP, plus there’s always a change to get some blacktype with a stakes placement. Nevertheless, turning back in distance and maybe returning to allowance company seems like a better play going forward from here. Stanley Jackson gets a rare stakes mount, and in a topsy-turvy jockey colony, his two wins on the year is a much better performance than the usual veterans on top of the colony’s standings are having in 2008.
Desert Joker [Joker x Fabulous Dancer, trained by landen4 for Stal Landen vzw] is your 3/5 favorite, and is the vet of the field, making start #27 here. He’s a bargain who has paid off in a lot of ways, beginning with six wins and over $200,000 in earnings. He’s making only his second start since a disappointing sixth in last year’s Grade I Sword Swallower. He hasn’t been able to keep up with graded foes from earlier in his career, but has found success on his own terms running with the listed blokes. He won a California allowance with something to spare two back, and followed it up with a strong closing second in a stakes over the same ground last time out. He does like to close, but his only other 13-furlong try saw him leading for as long as he could before tiring late; that’s an understandable though not recommended tactic here among just a quartet of runners. He’s hit triple-digit speed figures in three of his last four races, hence being odds-on in this field, but those races did come at shorter distances. Indeed, being 0-for-1 at the distance does make one resistant. Even with one win at a mile and three-quarters, against a weaker allowance field, one doesn’t quite get sold on the idea of him trying to hang tough at a distance in which the expertise is missing. Still, facing just three runners, it doesn’t require a Herculean effort to take the win. There isn’t much pace for him to close stalwartly on, which is another disadvantage. Cutting back slightly in distance his odds might be lower than 3/5 next out. Wilhelm Kewmwa hopes to continue his reign of terror on the turf with a mount on the chalk here.
Hubbert’s Peak [High Chaparral(IRE)-Alyrepublic, by Deputy Minister, trained by mariana5 for Ace Stables – RASH Division] is an intriguing entry here. He likes grass over dirt, and proved as much when switching to the turf. And he only has seven races in his career to date. His speed figures on the grass have a lot of life to them, earning speed figures of 91 and 97 in his last two starts. What’s not to like in a four-horse field? Well, for one, his stakes debut last out was a flop, even with a 97 speed figure. He never fired in the mile race, and while he was third, he was beaten twelve lengths. He seems to prefer going out on the lead early, but aside from his debut has yet to hold on to his speed in winning. He has gone only as far as a mile and a quarter, which he did twice, but in his turf race at the distance he faded after a mile, and on dirt he never got involved and finished thirteenth. His sire is good on grass and supplies some stamina, but the “dam”s side of the pedigree is made to sprint. He may have a fine career to come on the grass, but even should he inherit a nice, easy pace from the gate, there’s not much evidence that suggests that he’d be involved after the first seven or eight furlongs. He’s poised to maybe explode later this year in shorter turf races, but despite the promise, he appears up against it in this marathon. Niles Gardner is having his usual fine season, and he picks up this mount, for all the potential that might exist here.
It’s too short a field to pick a winner, and too late to pick the Giants, so I’ll just reserve my prediction for Arizona versus Arizona State in Tucson this weekend. Since neither are an alma mater of mine, though, we’ll just let it drop and wish all contenders this weekend good luck.