Vermont for Lovers: Classic Dirt
With Valentine’s Day just around the corner, young lovers’ thoughts turn, of course, to
The seventh race on the card is a Grade II stakes for four year olds and older going 10 furlongs. Four of the top forty ranked runners in racing’s toughest division join ten others in a race that looks very tough to call.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 IRISH QUEST (RAINBOW QUEST x IRISH RIVER(FR) x GRAUSTARK) bred by jrogue1, trained by xanderman (Jrogue Stables, 16%) odds: 13-1
First of a one-two punch from the Jrogue stables, Irish tends to be the early runner, while his non-coupled stablemate Mambo Bones runs late. Could not match the early pace of others last time in the Grade II Willing and Able, and while he doesn’t need the lead, he does not like getting dirt in his face and was never a factor. The bad race last time inflates his odds and beware: he’s run a few clunkers before and has always bounced back to run well next time out.
PP 2 HEAD START (JUMP START x RAHY x KINGMAMBO) bred by gbrace6, trained by 6ward, (
His first two graded starts were not auspicious, but he pulled out a huge win last time. Sure the win was nice and his time makes him more than competitive here, but if he never wins another race, he’ll be able to say he ended the winning streak of Horse of the Year and certain Hall of Famer Solar Song. With five wins in his last six starts, this one is on his own hot streak. Jockey is off to a fine start, and he gets a favorable post position for a horse that figures to be prominent early. Good chance.
PP 3 PYE ARE SQUARED(AUS) (VISCOUNT (AUS) x RAHY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by jeffdrew (The Big Oil Conglomerate, 14%) odds: 15-1
Pye is more than happy to enter his mares against boys, but doesn’t get much respect from the oddmakers here. This “area of a circle” has been out of the money only four times in her career, however two of those times have come in her past three races. On the upside, her last race, while she finished in the back half of the field, was in good time and not that far off the money horses. And this frontrunner has a good chance to grab the early lead. Look for an attempt to steal this wire to wire for a big payday.
PP 4 A VOW TO BE A SLEW(KY) (BROKEN VOW x SLEWPY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by willyam37 (Wfstables3, 16%) odds: 13-1
Millionaire comes off of a bit of a freshening after a poor race against a very tough DelPenn stakes field. He’s run well off a layoff before, and that’s common for this barn’s runners, so expect a top performance. All three of his stakes wins have come against restricted fields, and even though the GR Simsters are well respected, this is a tougher placing than any of those races. Barn scores a coup in getting this hot jockey.
PP 5 HERE FOR THE PARTY (HANSEL x TREMPOLINO x
Barn has never been shy about bringing him to the party often or running him against top competition. In ten graded starts he has a couple seconds, and he comes here just two week after facing an incredibly tough field. This group doesn’t have an Ermington Pegasus, and Party hasn’t run a bad race in almost a year. Don’t be scared off by that eighth place last time; he’ll likely pick up a check today, though it may be for a minor award. Jockey is winning at a 24% clip.
PP 6 DEFIANT DIREWOLF(KY) (STORMY
Six of the other runners, including many of the obvious contenders, were entered after Direwolf, so when this top-tier trainer made the entry it may have looked like a weak field. This horse looks over his head here. He’s tried graded stakes twice before and lost by a combined 44 lengths. None of his three overnight stakes wins have come in fields with more than five runners. On the plus side (and we have to find plus sides for longshots) he’s a streaky colt who once won three in a row, and he’s exiting a win.
PP 7 BLUEGRASS GHOST(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x SEATTLE SLEW x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by illbred (Pierchinski Stables, 17%) odds: 8-1
Sometimes horses look so good, but then they step up a bit in class and they can’t repeat their performances. We need to keep telling ourselves that so we don’t go overboard on this colt. Wonderfully bred runner makes his graded stakes debut here. He exits an impressive win in an unusually strong overnight stakes, where he won at today’s distance with a speed figure that is tied for best last-out figure in the race. With only 15 starts, he’s only getting better. This is his toughest test yes, but he looks up to it.
PP 8 AWEGUSTUS (AWESOME AGAIN x UNBRIDLED x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by theagkhan (Galileo Stables, 17%) odds: 6-1
One of four in here to run in the Tropicount DelPenn stakes. He was well beaten by Irish Quest and finished just ahead of A Vow To Be A Slew, and like the latter has been freshened since. Three races back, he just missed in the Breeders Bowl Classic. That race alone makes him the class of the field. He is the highest ranked runner in the field and has banked nearly a hundred grand per start. Trainer hooks up with perennial top jockey. More than a fair price on an obvious contender.
PP 9 IRON BOCK(KY) (GRAND SLAM x HALO x QUADRANGLE) bred and trained by ironmcc (Iron Racing Stables, 10%) odds: 8-1
Trainer is making all the right moves with this youngster. Bock managed to outlast a fast early pace last time and finish strong for a win in the Grade II Willing and Able. He should like the somewhat easier pace anticipated here. He’s tied with Bluegrass Ghost for the highest speed figure last time, and he just gets better every race. He is a candidate for a bounce, if you believe in those things, and it looks like he’d rather go nine furlongs than ten, but you must respect his chance to take this wire to wire, and jockey Fendlay’s agent urged passing on a couple other offers to ride this one.
PP 10 DEVIL CAT(KY) (TALE OF THE CAT x
Hard-luck trainer has a nice one here. Cat’s won six of his eight dirt starts, and is a perfect four for four in dirt routes. He upset an OK overnight field last time and makes his graded debut today, where he hopes to find his rally surprising the bigger operations. Speed figures are light compared to others, and he truly runs into competition he’s never seen before, but the barn’s try here makes every bit of sense.
PP 11 STUDENT OF EROS(KY) (
Perfectly named colt for the day’s theme. Four straight wins, including a pair of stakes wins in his last two, portend a big effort as this colt makes his graded debut. Four-year-old has never been sharper, and his speed figures fit in here. This is his second start off a layoff, so with some anticipated improvement, he has a chance to score a win at a very nice price.
PP 12 ANDREW JOHN(KY) (A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by sonofaus (Sonofaus Stables, 10%) odds: 16-1
Very lightly raced four-year-old could turn out to be as good as they get. He’s been living up to his expensive breeding so far, with four wins and a close second in five starts. After picking up a pair of overnight wins, he, too, makes his debut in graded stakes. On class issues and on the tough 2008 start for his jockey, we’ll look elsewhere for now, but this might be the last time you ever see 16-1 on this promising colt.
PP 13 MAMBO BONES (KINGMAMBO x DANEHILL x LE FABULEUX) bred and trained by jrogue5 (Jrogue Stables, 15%) odds: 5-1
Mild favorite despite finishing behind Iron Bock last time and three others in here the time before that. He has a record of 3 wins, 2 seconds, and a third in ten graded starts, so class is not problem. Nor is speed. His 115 last time is just a point behind the top figures. At six years old, only Irish Quest is older, but Mambo makes only his 20th start today, so he should be right at his prime. Watch for him running from near the back of the pack.
PP 14 ROCKET GO BOOM (PULPIT x CAT THIEF x GALLANT MAN) bred by queenab, trained by lalakers42 (Lakers32 Stables, 17%) odds: 8-1
In his previous barn, Rocket tried 11 times to break his maiden and could not do it. This barn took over training, and he won his next race and has 7 wins, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds in the 13 starts in this barn. Their secret seems partially to be giving him more rest between races (usually). Now they try their magic with him in graded company for the first time. He’s got a tough post, and he surely would have generated more excitement had the track turned up wet. This is his second race after a two month layoff, and he’s responded well to that pattern before.
Summary. This one really is tough. Very few horses look to be toss-outs. Devil Cat, Student of Eros, and Andrew John, for example, are three longshots right next to each other that all demand respect and a chance. None of them have proven they can handle graded stakes for the simple reason that they’re trying for the first time. If you are looking for value, or trying to win a handicapping contest, look closely at those three.
The favorite is, of course, quite good, but this is a race that calls for more value.
Most of the horses under 10-1 make sense: Head Start beat Solar Song! Bluegrass Ghost ran a huge figure last time, and this is his favorite distance. Awegustus has the best jockey and a class edge on the field. Iron Bock has the highest figure and a running style that should be favored here. Rocket Go Boom hasn’t been out of the money since joining his barn.
Here is my call: Head Start /Andrew John / Awegustus