The CON UNIT Special

1- TRAIL RUN(WA) 4-1-0-2 A Lee 14/1

ID # 149543 3 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable svengali TRAIL CITY x HOT RUN (DEN) x SEATTLE SLEET

A simple look at the PP’s says Trail Run(WA) is heavily overmatched here. The only hope for her is that she sits towards or at the back of the field and passes a tiring horse or two late. Just beating one horse in this field is good enough to earn $1,200 and some BP’s. She did finish third in an ungraded stakes at a mile on the dirt last time out, but that was a four horse field and her SP was a 76. I would avoid her at the betting windows or play her as a long shot on the bottom of a trifecta.

2- DANCING SPIRIT(KY) 6-1-0-2 A Timpson 5/1

ID # 144928 3 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Stable zeppelinz GHOSTZAPPER x SECRETARIAT x NORTHERN DANCER

Dancing Spirit(KY) is running for the third straight time in Alabama. In both of her previous efforts here, she went a mile on the dirt and ran fourth in both A-22000NW2L races. This race is a massive jump in class from an A-NW2L, but her connections spotted a weak field at her home track and decided to enter her. She ran an 84 SP last time out, which was a 10 point improvement over the 74 SP she ran last October. I expect her to improve again, because she is comfortable in Alabama- especially at a mile on the dirt. She should be in contention at the top of the stretch and if she comes up sharp and improves on her last effort, she could steal a win.

3- STUN(KY) 4-3-0-0 R Pollard 3/1

ID # 28428 3 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable gavinw FORESTRY x PINE BLUFF x GONE WEST

Stun(KY) has progressed rapidly through the ranks in her short career. She won an MSW-19600 in Oklahoma as a first-time starter, then she won an A-24600NW2L in gate to wire fashion at 6.5 furlongs, and then she made it 3/3 with a win in an ungraded stakes also at 6.5F. After three successful efforts in sprints, her connections finally tried her in a route, the Grade 3 Reflection Futurity at a mile, where she ran fifth in a full field of fourteen. Although she finished outside of the winner circle for the first time, she did match her career high SP (87) in that race. She is based on the grade “E” he mare This Is Visual, who had success as a two and three year old in sprints. This Is Visual did not even try a route until late in his four year old campaign, but he ran a 114 SP in his first effort at a mile or over. Stun(KY) is going to want to be on the lead and she could steal the race if no one forces her to run hard early.

4- BASEBALL FEVER(KY) 11-5-2-1 E Sharp 3/2

ID # 110349 3 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Stable dundey STORMIN FEVER x GRAND SLAM x NORTHERN DANCER

Baseball Fever(KY) is out of the well bred grade “G” mare Baseball Babe, who only won one career race and that win came on the turf. Her connections might have debuted her on the turf last March for that very reason, but after she ran fifth in a field of seven, she has run exclusively on the dirt. Whereas the previous two horses need a certain pace scenario to develop to win on Saturday, Baseball Fever(KY) comes in as the favorite for good reason. She has broken the 90+ SP barrier in four straight races, only one other horse in the field has ever topped a 90 SP (and she did it only once). She ran second in the nineteen horse field of the Minnesota Miss Juvenile at 8.5F and should be much more comfortable against a smaller field here.

5- BLUES SHAFT(KY) 5-1-0-2 N Mann 6/1

ID # 147291 3 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable badkarma MINESHAFT x CURE THE BLUES x STORM CAT

After breaking her maiden as a first time starter, Blues Shaft(KY) has not been back to the winner’s circle. She has never tried to run in a route, and her career high SP is only 80. She has been running higher SP’s in the longer sprints, her career high (80) came in that 7.5F race and her career low (72) came in a 5.5F race. Her connections are trying to stretch her out another half furlong and figured they should try that against a small field. Blues Shaft(KY) is out of the grade “B” mare Worldy Outweigh, who has produced 4/4 winning foals that have raced, she has also foaled an un-raced two year old. Worldy Outweigh did the majority of her damage in route races. I would expect a mid-80s SP from her on Saturday, that is not enough to win, but it could get her third place.

6- LOVE TRAIN(AUS) 7-3-2-0 C Riddle 3/1

ID # 57777 3 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable laserbarn REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x APTITUDE x CORONADO‘S QUEST

Love Train(AUS) comes in as a winner of three straight races and they all have featured constant SP improvement. She has never tried a stakes, but she won an ANW4L last time with a 91 SP at 7 furlongs. She has only tried a mile once and she ran a 75 SP, good enough for sixth in an MSW race. She is based on the grade “F” he mare Quest for Talent, who was successful in turf sprints. She has been improving rapidly, but I expect her to bounce at a mile against a field of stakes horses.

FINAL ANALYSIS

I will pick the favorite for another week, #4 Baseball Fever(KY) to win. Expect a decent trifecta payout, if they run how I see it: 4-2-5. Good luck.