Odds on favourite in The FATHER ICE Memorial Stakes
Ostend has an eight horse field for this 4yo+ mile and a half marathon on turf. Early indications are that with a very short odds favourite the real race is for second spot. The betting is:
3/5 Puppet Regime
9/2 Secret’s Gold
6/1 Steel Giant(KY)
7/1 Tete Of Oz(IRE)
9/1 Nasujabr(KY)
23/1 Daitro(IRE)
30/1 Changeisintheair
58/1 Authentic Gold
Analysis
3/5 Puppet Regime – #8
Trainer: wrecks2
(Kingmambo x Nijinsky II x Mr. Prospector)
Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation send out one of the sims current superstars. His 32 runs have netted 16 wins, 5 stakes, 1 G2 and 5 g1’s, netting him over $3.6m in earnings. Last seasojn saw him put together a sequence of 4 G1 wins, including the G1-World Cup Turf Classic, and this can only be seen as an early season work-out. Expect to see more Graded entries from him over the coming year and if this 6yo were to losee here it would be a real shock.
9/2 Secret’s Gold – #1
Trainer: seacadet
(Touch Gold x Secretariat x Damascus)
The rest of the betting is headed by Seacadet Stables’ 6yo who showed marked improvement last year although his season opener was disappointing. He has 11 wins from 42 starts although only two stakes victories, his first coming in 2006. A nice runner who has been unfortunate to run into such a monster favourite.
6/1 Steel Giant(KY) – #7
Trainer: racer
(Giant’s Causeway (IRE) x Rainbow Quest x Theatrical(IRE))
Tees Stables send out this interesting 4yo colt who has 3 of his 10 races so far. Bred from $1m+ winning class B mare he has a lot to live up to and as a 3yo seemed to be heading the right way, though he came a little unstuck in his first race of 2008, leaving his sprint finish far too late. If he can forget that run and run true to form second place could be a very real possibility.
7/1 Tete Of Oz(IRE) – #6
Trainer: jacobsson
(Moon Ballad (IRE) x Cozzene x Mountain Cat)
Trained and bred by Sabbath Stables this 5yo spent most of his mid career to date on dirt tracks with a number of allowance wins, despite breaking his maiden on turf. A return to turf as a 4yo produced immediate results with a couple of comfortable stakes wins but he seems to have struggled to find any since, though he did manage 2 2nd place in a G3. Managed a second place in his first allowance run of the season but he needs to find a lot more improvement to threaten the favourites here.
9/1 Nasujabr(KY) – #3
Trainer: sabbath2
(Aljabr x Sadler’s Wells x Fast Gold)
Another Sabbath Stables runner, this 4yo bred by therion has a lot to do on paper. His 3 wins from 17 have all been allowances, though his class D mare also took some time to gain a stakes victory. He managed a few runner-up spots in graded races as a 3yo and will definitely be vying for a share of the lower place money.
23/1 Daitro(IRE) – #2
Trainer: lgbost9y
(King of Kings (IRE) x Dynaformer x Nashua)
A 4yo from Lgbost Stables who has changed hands several times in claimers. Apart from his maiden win he has only found success in starter allowances and will struggle in this company. Finished just out of the money in G3 here a few weeks back so should be sharp.
30/1 Changeisintheair – #3
Trainer: madbull
(Changeintheweather x Polish Precedent x Jade Hunter)
Another one who has changed hands several times in claimers, this 5yo from B4rca Stables gets his second ever stakes run. This will be a huge jump in class for him and he will do well to get anywhere near the more proven runners in the field.
58/1 Authentic Gold – #5
Trainer: sherman6
(Authenticate x Fuji Kiseki(JPN) x Gold Crest)
Sherman’s Upper New York Stables send out this 6yo which they claimed for just $4k in January with their fingers very firmly crossed. having only managed a 12th place in that race he will struggle not to come last here – especially as his only long distance race on turf produced an sp# of just 20.
Summary
It would take a brave betting man to go against the odds-on favourite, Puppet Regime, in this race, though others will be fighting furiously for that runner-up spot. Steel Giant(KY) is my pick for that.