Large field contests The PROSPECT LEARN Handicap Stakes
3yo’s make their way en masse to Epsom this week for this $75,000 one mile turf race on a still firm course. Thirteen runners line up, which some of you may see as holding some pretty bad omens, but it will surely be an exciting race. The betting is:
5/1 Hitsugaya(KY)
6/1 Here’s To Beisbol(IRE)
7/1 Nine Forty(KY)
7/1 Skidded(KY)
8/1 Bonus Boy(KY)
9/1 Fantastic Mix(FR)
10/1 Galavanized Anchor(AUS)
12/1 Geological Survey(AUS)
12/1 Flyin’ Noverre(IRE)
13/1 Mongoose Run(IRE)
13/1 Razormaw(KY)
16/1 Start A Storm(AUS)
17/1 Barb’s Victorian(JPN)
Analysis
5/1 Hitsugaya(KY) – #5
Trainer: daedalus
(War Front x Seattle Slew x Medieval Man)
A stakes winner from Ace Stables – Ireland Division whose first outing as a 3yo brought a victory in a valuable owner restricted stakes as part of the EAAA Inter Residency Challenge. A nice 100 sp# makes this young one look an exciting prospect for the future whose earnings already outstrip its modest class E dam. He’s had a 3rd place here at Epsom at 7.5 furlongs so watch for his high class fast finishing as he’ll be happy to prove that his last run wasn’t a fluke.
6/1 Here’s To Beisbol(IRE) – #1
Trainer: zzz2912
(Azamour (IRE) x Barathea(IRE) x Machiavellian)
This colt, with a relatively inexperienced trainer, was bred by deadman and won the G3-Grand Critter Stakes as a 2yo. Only managed 2nd spot in his first 3yo run so steps back to a mile in an effort to improve on that. Another one who has already surpassed his dam in earnings he looks a tough prospect to get away from, and will track the leaders all the way. Ranked 23rd in his class at this distance he’ll be hard to beat.
7/1 Nine Forty(KY) – #3
Trainer: inthamoney
(El Prado(IRE) x Forty Niner x Buckpasser)
This Worldwide Stables colt has had 5 races with 2 allowance wins but does seem to be prone top the odd disappointing run. He’s been tried a couple of times on dirt with no success but looks no slouch on the turf if he is allowed to dominate the opposition. Hard to tell which version of him will turn up here, but if he is on song he could well surprise some of his better fancied rivals.
7/1 Skidded(KY) – #6
Trainer: rose
(Awesome Again x E Dubai x Sadler’s Wells)
Brundlefly Stables send out this colt who has had only 4 runs so far. Bred from a grade 1 winning mare he was only 2nd in his first 3yo run last time and if, as I expect, he fails to perform here will probably be tried on dirt soon. Never out of the top 3 so far but will find this race tough.
8/1 Bonus Boy(KY) – #12
Trainer: canismajor
(Storm Cat x Mineshaft x Theatrical(IRE))
One of the most experienced here with 9 runs already, this colt is sent out by Nextbonus Racing and was based on an average performing class F horse. Came up against Hitsugaya(KY) in his first run this year whe he only managed 3rd and despite winning The GP Breeders Bowl Juvy Turf Mile as a 2yo will find it difficult to reverse that placing here.
9/1 Fantastic Mix(FR) – #11
Trainer: spaderacin
(Linamix(FR) x Fantastic Light x Affirmed)
Another colt sent out by Worldwide Stables, who is having only his 3rd run. Comfortably beat Here’s To Beisbol(IRE) in The WAINS WORLD TOO Handicap last time over 9.5 furlongs so he has obvious place chances and may even be the one to take the spoils if that form can be transferred to this distance.
10/1 Galavanized Anchor(AUS) – #9
Trainer: jeffdrew
(Charge Forward(AUS) x Cozzene x Rahy)
A colt from the ever-popular The Big Oil Conglomerate [Ft. LordPye] who, despite some good runs as a 2yo rarely managed to keep his nose in front where it matters. Already with 4 graded starts under his belt he has so far managed just the maiden win (in an allowance race), but is fast approaching the $100k earnings mark. His first race this year didn’t show enough of an improvement for my liking so I can’t see him adding much to that total here.
12/1 Geological Survey(AUS) – #8
Trainer: mav1764
(Encosta de Lago(AUS) x Red Ransom x Rainbow Quest)
Deadinthelane Stables send out this lightly raced colt who presumably deserved this run based on the excellent start he made to his 3yo career. Although from a very average class G mare he looks set to have a long and successful racing life ahead, although this may prove to be only in allowances. Still has to get a dirt run so could be open to even greater improvements in the future but I just can’t see him managing to take the spoils in the latter stages here.
12/1 Flyin’ Noverre(IRE) – #4
Trainer: pogdig1
(Noverre(IRE) x Flying Spur(AUS) x Giant’s Causeway (IRE))
Saddled by Bmr005 Stables, this busy colt has managed to race 10 times already. He’s matched his class G dams 2 career wins, but struggled very badly in his last race where he was tailed off at an early stage. He’s been subjected to some very hard races so far and may need a break, and an opportunity to gain some experience of winning in allowance races before he will really be able to challenge some of his high flying rivals with any real conviction.
13/1 Mongoose Run(IRE) – #2
Trainer: bluegrass3
(Hurricane Run (IRE) x A.P.Indy x Theatrical(IRE))
The real mystery of the race is sent out by Kk1039 Stables. Bred by photo41st from a class C dam, this colt has run 2 and won 2 – but both were at 6.5 furlongs. To put that 100% record is either madness or brilliance on the part of the trainer and I for one salute his bravery. If he has inherited his dams stamina he will get this longer distance but somehow I still can’t see him winning – but who knows?
13/1 Razormaw(KY) – #7
Trainer: claim
(Speightstown x Wild Again x Danehill)
A lightly raced colt from Opcon Stables who hasn’t really come on since his maiden win in October. His first try at a mile, though his dam did win at this distance on dirt, overall I don’t think he will match the class of his rivals.
16/1 Start A Storm(AUS) – #13
Trainer: meguire3rd
(Stratum x Storm Bird x Ack Ack)
Meguire Stables send out this interesting colt who, in my opinion, is crying out for a dirt run after his 7 turf runs so far. Looks to have little chance here I’m afraid.
17/1 Barb’s Victorian(JPN) – #10
Trainer: barbstable
(Grandera(IRE) x Empire Maker x Theatrical(IRE))
Sent out by Jakematt Stables and based on an average class G horse, this colt gets his first 3yo run here. Has 3 wins, including a stakes victory, and tackles a mile for the first time though I am sure that will be no problem to him. His 2yo form doesn’t seem to hold out too much hope of a victory here but I am sure he will give a respectable account of himself.
Summary
It’s nice to see a 13 runner race which is so full of obvious quality and it is very hard to pick a guaranteed winner here. Mongoose Run(IRE) has his win 100% record at stake here which is always adds to the interest but I’m probably tempting fate (and I apologise to his owners) by sticking with the favourite Hitsugaya(KY) though in all honesty most of these look to be in with a chance of improving well enough to win this. Whilst there are a couple capable of front running ir will be interesting to see where the early speed comes from and I expect the latter stages will hold the key to who finishes where (blatantly obvious comment #1!). Personally I am really looking forward to seeing this race so good luck to all the trainers.