Four colts installed as cofavorites in Giant Slayer
The Giant Slayer Classic field is one of the most talented to show up for the Denmark race in years. Several of the runners appeared in two of the biggest races for juveniles, the Breeders Bowl Juvenile and the Eruption Handicap on DelPenn Champions Day, and some others are making graded debuts with good credentials supporting their bids. For the first time in it’s nine year history, the 8.5f race will be run over a good dirt track rather than a fast one. Considering only three entrants have ever tried an off surface, the wet nature of the track adds an extra layer of complexity to the handicapping.
The stakes record time of 1:41.4 was set by carolover’s Leaky Tap in 2003. Oddly, winners of the Giant Slayer rarely go on to win other big stuff as 3yos. Degoldenstorm was the top 2yo of 2006, but hasn’t managed to return to the upper echelons since the highs of his younger days. Despite the relatively poor record of Giant Slayer winners later in their careers, the G3 is still a prize most trainers would enjoy earnings. The $150k purse isn’t so bad either. Add in the 32 stakes points earned by the winner, and this race is a significant one on the trail to the Bluegrass Derby.
You know it’s a uniformly good field when four of the 14 entrants are tied for the title of favorite at 7-1. Cash Due is one of them, starting from gate fourteen for trainer Chilimac. The Encosta De Lago colt is making his first appearance in the graded ranks, but he’s got a very solid foundation with a full 10 starts already. With 4 wins and 6 more top 3s, this colt is one that likes to run hard every time. He hasn’t had to face much yet, running in just 3 stakes. Of course, in those three, all at 8.5f, he placed twice and won once, so you know he likes this distance. Why do i like him? Cash has won from on the lead, stalking, and placed further back. He’s been improving SPs very well, and despite the plethora of starts, he looks poised for a big run.
Eddielegg owns another of the cofaves, Fall Out Boy. The colt is one of those hot young Pivotal babies with a great record on the main track. At a mile he’s 4:2-1-1, and just popped a 99SP two back in winning his lone stakes trophy. Has yet to go 8.5, but there are no indications of problems stretching out. A nice third in the G1 Eruption last out puts him among the best of his class. He’ll likely come from midpack, so watch for a strong stretch run. The perfect ITM rate on the main track shows his class.
Liam’s Dollis Hill is the third cofave. The Afleet colt has a pedigree perfectly suited for the classic distances, yet is a stakes winner at a mile. Though he hasn’t yet gone 8.5, there should be do problems for him. The biggest challenge is likely to be the combination of graded debut and slower speeds than some of the other top runners. Even so, he’s run a 94, and been getting better incrementally with each start, so a higher SP is pretty certain to be earned here. But will t be high enough to win?
Speaking of high SPs, take a look at that of our last cofave, Bernie Ets. The A.P. Indy colt popped a 100 in his sole graded start. Esstable’s colt closed from midpack in the G3 Pleasure Stakes at 8.5f in mid-December to win by almost two lengths. That made his third straight win, and pushed his overall record to 8:4-3-1. Very classy colt with a bright future ahead. Has a nice midpack running style, with an ability to switch it up and run closer to the front, that should suit him well here.
At 8-1 is Broadway Dancer, trained out of the Super20 stable. The Kingmambo colt was the darling of Team North and South America after a lovely victory for a huge 95SP at the World Cup in the Juvenile Mile. He went into the Breeders Bowl with a lot of admirers, but found himself outclosed at the wire and had to settle for fifth. Two months off and back in the fray on Delpenn Champions Day, he looked the worse for wear, running a dismal 12th. If this trip doesn’t go well, we might see the colt try the grass before long. His pedigree certainly supports a try on the green stuff.
Also 8-1 is the classy Eavesdropper colt Listening. Foxvbullet’s youngster has spent most of his career in the stakes ranks, raking in placings and points but never winning anything higher than an allowance. His performance in the G3 Pleasure Stakes last out had to tell the trainer the colt might be something special, however. Listening came from way back to finish third after a solid closing charge. He looks like he really wants more ground, and should love some of the later spring races This one may be too short, but still, keep an eye out for him now and in the next few months.
The rail post belongs to the 10-1 Alberta Indystorm. Trained by Titleist, the A.P. Indy colt makes his graded debut has finished worse than second only once. A heady record indeed for the royally-bred colt. His top SP is only 92, but he’s been winning on the lead really easy. Sure, he’s going to have to run faster than ever before, but that doesn’t appear to be a huge problem for the colt. Great shot at a top-3 at minimum.
The other 10-1 horse, Pantalaimon, might be better thought of as a heavy favorite given the rain in Denmark this week. The Smarty Jones colt is 1 for 1 on a wet track, though his 3.5 length stakes win was on slop rather than the slightly better good track he’ll be on here. He’s not bad on a fast track, but not yet fast enough to run here without that rain giving him an assist. Trainer Bunsay lucked out with the weather. Watch for Pantal to settle about three or four lengths behind the lead, then start moving heading into the final turn.
Zewango can’t spell, but he can breed good horses. The 11-1 horse, Deja’vodoo, is a stakes winner at a mile. He has yet to run 8.5, but with a top SP of 96 running 8 panels you’ve got to think the Pulpit colt has a real good shot. Most of his races have seen him sit midpack though within 4 or so lengths of the front, though he’s won both on the lead and closing. Has a nice ability to adjust to race conditions as needed which makes him a tactician’s dream.
Maverick returns to the sim in full force with Temporal Spring, running for the Mav176 barn. The 12-1 entrant is another Pivotal baby. If the ones in this race are any indication, I need to breed a few! Spring is undefeated in three dirt starts, and making his graded debut here. He’s never been behind any horse on dirt, always wiring his races. Can he do it here? The 96SP he earned last out in a listed stakes suggests yes he can.
You’d think a graded winner would have better odds than 14-1, but that’s where Broke Back fits into this field. Mrsardis’ Cat Thief colt took the G3 Cryogenics in September with a nice 93SP, then went for the Breeders Bowl but couldn’t close fast enough to affect the placings. Still, he did move up to cross the line just over 6 lengths back, and looks like he’ll handle longer distances better than 8.5f. The worrisome factor is his long vacation – the colt hasn’t run since the Breeders Bowl. After three months off, he may need this race to get back in winning shape.
Also at 14-1 is Cheap Thrillers. The Danehill Dancer colt runs for the Worldwide stable. Back in June he won the G3 Montana Futurity going 5.5f. Since then he’s placed in the G2 I Shall Avenge Thee at a mile and nabbed a fourth in a DelPenn restricted stake at a mile. His lack of wins since June is worrisome, but don’t count the colt out quite yet. The 93SP in that stake means he’s got some serious speed, and the trainer is darn good at handling 3yos.
You’d think a Kitten’s Joy baby would do most of his damage on turf, but so far Drogba looks like he prefers the main track. He’s stakes placed at 8.5f, and won twice at a mile, albeit in residency-restricted allowance company. Top SP of 94 earned last out, which is encouraging. What is also encouraging is his performance on a wet track. Granted, he only tried a sloppy track once, and that was last April in a 5f race, but he still posted a 68 (great for that time of year) and showed a spark with a nice closing effort. Johnny’s got a nice colt here, but it remains to be seen how he’ll handle graded company.
Djiin enters the 26-1 Crazy Miner. The Stormin Fever colt isn’t so crazy. With just five starts, he’s already a stakes winner. That stakes win, two starts back, was at the 8’5f distance and quite impressive. Finishing ahead by over 4 lengths merits some serious looks. Unfortunately Miner hasn’t done so well in three graded tries. A fourth was his best effort, back in the G2 Camel in September. he’s been on break since November, so after ten weeks off may well be at his best next start not this one.
This time of year the good juveniles are still going strong while others are bursting onto the graded scene. It makes the handicapper’s job a real tough one. The quartet of cofaves all deserve their due consideration, but I suspect this race will be taken by a horse at double digit odds. Take careful note of Alberta Indystorm and Temporal Spring. For a real longshot, look closely at Drogba.