Upstarts Look to Put New Twist on Ouchy Nips

The Ouchy Nips Special

Grade III

One mile

Fast Dirt

$150,000

Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up

Race ID:3476.0515

This curiously-named mile contest matches established performers like ESPRESSO D’ITALIA, BIG UGLY, and PRAVDA(KY) with a slew of up-and-comers.  With no confirmed frontrunners, at least for middle distances, the pace could dawdle a tad early, but the deep closers in the field are for real, so a little pace problem might not trip them up.

1 121761 BALANCE(KY)  chloedawg  A Brooks  9/1     

The sim’s BALANCE(KY) is identically bred as her real-life counterpart (THUNDER GULCH x KRIS S. x FORLI).  While real-life Balance is now retired, her sim sister keeps running, although she lacks the graded stakes success of her namesake.  She really moved forward with a 108 number in the Grade 1 DPCD Distaff, taking the lead late only to finish a good third.  That followed a nice third in a Grade 3 event in Idaho, so she has the look of a 4-year-old just hitting her peak.

2 96746 ESPRESSO D’ITALIA  lasthope1  D Hogin  7/2    

Dark grey and 5 years old, she’s by MEDAGLIO D’ORO out of multiple stakes producer AREQUIPA.  If you see her closer than eighth at the third call, check your eyesight: she’s a dead closer who’s been making moves from close to last for years.  She’s hit triple digits on the speed rating very consistently.  When she’s on, she can win the big ones, like the Grade 1 Bumblebee last June.  If she closes like she did in the Grade 3 Be Forewarned Stakes in Ontario two weeks ago, where she was second by less than a length, this could be her race.  She’s usually not wheeled back so quickly, but with her late running style it might not hurt her.

3 57608 A.P. BRAIN(KY)  dmckinna  C Schroeder  23/1    

She exits two allowance wins at much longer distances, both by daylight.  Trainer dmckinna must be hoping the newly 4-year-old A.P. INDY gal is ready for the big time, despite disappointing in her only stakes try to date (ninth in the Mango Prospector back in November).  A frontrunner at classic and marathon distances, it’s hard to tell whether that will translate to controlling speed at a flat mile.  It’s also a big step up speed-wise from her recent wins to the likes of these.

4 130128 DICTATION(JPN)  jerrylee  N Bonkowski  7/1   

The only stakes winner out of stakes-winning mom LAURA STORM, she moves up from seven and seven-plus furlongers to this distance.  Her recent runs are impressive despite the class rise, especially her 109 speed in her stakes triumph back in October in Massachusetts.  Having FORTY NINER as a dad doesn’t hurt, and she’ll have sharp speed from the shorter distances.  Another 4-year-old on the improve?

5 8492 BIG UGLY  jrogue  D Joines  5/1    

SUMMER SQUALL is done as a sire, but her roan 6-year-old daughter keeps going.  She tasted Grade 1 success last year in the My Girl in California, but hasn’t cracked the trifecta since.  She may be the only one behind ESPRESSO D’ITALIA turning for home, as she was in the Be Forewarned last out, and she crossed the line behind ESPRESSO D’ITALIA in that race as well as the Bumblebee.  She’s finished behind others in here, like BALANCE(KY) and PRAVDA(KY).  While I wouldn’t write her out of the trifecta this time, I’d want more than 5/1 for her on the win end.

6 127321 PRAVDA(KY)  super10  F Oxon  4/1    

The KINGMAMBO filly popped a big one in the Air Line Handicap (New York Grade 3) in November, but disappointed when sixth next out later on the same card as BALANCE(KY)’s big race in Delaware.  Maybe facing a field smaller than the crowd of 18 she did that day will help, as she’s a tracker and did manage third in earlier stages of that contest.  She does have Grade 1 on her resume from April’s lool Oaks win, as well as the top jockey on the grounds in F Oxon.

7 108516 MINNY MOUSE  theodore11  Bo Ryan  8/1    

This cartoon character sports some huge numbers in mile allowances, so maybe you should multiply the 68 she earned in a two-mile stakes in between those to match.  She likes to run late but has been known to make a move on the backstretch, so that might be a good strategy with more accomplished deep closers in here.  This is the first foray into graded company for the El Corredor 5-year-old, but the recent allowance wins say “watch out!”  This is a live longshot.

8 137066 CK BLURRED VISION(KY)  docoz  P Sullivan  10/1    

First of twenty in the restricted Minnesota Oaks last month, and that’s got to count for something.  That win followed a brief downturn that saw her career-opening six win streak snapped.  Returning to a mile distance seemed to help the DISTORTED HUMOR lass, and her tracking style looks well-suited to today’s stakes.  Her top speed of 106 is behind the best here, but it’s hard to count out a 7-for-9 filly.

9 31259 BELLE OF THE BUDA(KY)  godmother  T Campy  7/1 

Her dam, BEAUTIFUL BUDA, was Grade 1 quality on turf, but this one has excelled on the dirt.  Another KINGMAMBO 4-year-old, she comes in for Topicount Stables having never finished off the board in her 12-race career.  She made the successful transition from allowance winner to stakes company last out with her score in the ALONE THAT BABY Stakes in New Mexico, and looks to move up again today in the graded ranks.  She’s versatile, but that 109 for her most recent race is the only one that matches the speed of the best here.  Jockey Campy is solid enough, but I’d like to see another big one before backing.

10 100672 SILVER STRAV  emb2  N Hobby  8/1    

The STRAVINSKY 5-year-old has stakes wins, but the last was in November 2006.  Her 2007 was not bad, including graded stakes placings, but she was inconsistent and frequently below the century mark in speed numbers.  She opened 2008 with an allowance win on this oval with F Oxon aboard, but that estimable rider jumps to PRAVDA(KY) today, leaving emb2 with the low-percentage N Hobby.  Those with horse-for-course angles may take note, but I’m opting for others with more recent big wins.