Sunny Florida Due for Some Clouds?
It’s a short fourteen weeks until the first Saturday in May, and there’s no time to waste in gathering stakes points if you hope to hope to qualify for the Bluegrass Oaks.
Thirteen trainers, entering fifteen fillies, have seized the opportunity for a Grade I win and all the points that go with it in this inaugural running of the Sunny Florida Stakes.
It’s no surprise either that, this early in the year, most of the field is unproven at this distance or even at this class level. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot to go on. At least eight previous graded stakes have featured two or more of these fillies.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 IT’S RATHER CLOUDY(ENG) (PIVOTAL(GB) x STORM CAT x
Maybe the most exciting entry here. Trainer is writing the textbook on how to do it right with this one. Every start she goes a bit farther, a bit faster, and more than a bit higher in class. She’s won all four starts with ease, including last time right at this track in the Grade 2 Boca, where she bested Miss Hennypenny and Graupoint. She leads the field in earnings per start; she owns the third highest last-race speed figure and the second highest divisional rating. Everything has gone flawlessly so far, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. Only problem is the name: how do you bet on “Cloudy” in a “Sunny” race?
PP 2 MISS HENNYPENNY(KY) (HENNESSY x A.P. INDY x MISWAKI) bred and trained by simond2 (Hornedfrog Stables, 14%) Odds: 8-1
By last May she had her second lifetime win, taking the Grade 3 Unusual Circumstances. Later races have revealed that that was not a very strong field. Her third and last win came in a small listed stakes. This closer has been steadily improving and steadily earning checks for her veteran trainer. A second to It’s Rather Cloudy last month makes it look like she is likely to earn another check, but unlikely to pick up the top prize. Her last start was a short two weeks ago.
PP 3 STREET ACTION(ENG) (MOTIVATOR (GB) x STREET CRY (IRE) x NUREYEV) bred and trained by randwick1 (Bmr005 Stables, 9%) Odds: 16-1
Her first seven races were outstanding: a debut third, followed by three seconds and then three comfortable wins – her only three routes. A move to graded stakes was certainly warranted, and so barn entered her in the Grade 1 Movieland Starlet. She made a credible effort in finishing fifth, but unfortunately runs into two fillies that beat her there, and a host of others that have produced speed figures well in excess of her best. Still, she loves the distance and is eligible to improve.
PP 4 LOVESTRUCK(KY) (SMART STRIKE x SUMMER SQUALL x LAW SOCIETY (IRE)) bred and trained by knowlton (Washer Toss Stables, 23%) Odds: 7-1
With five wins and two seconds in seven starts, this filly’s limits are hard to predict. We can see that her speed figures are close to the top in here, and sire Smart Strike’s offspring do as well in routes as they do in sprints. Formidable trainer demands respect. Also there is a definite lack of early speed in the field, so she can get any kind of trip her connections want. On the downside, she is making her first start around two turns and her first start in a graded race.
PP 5 BANJO ATTACK(KY) (BLUEGRASS CAT x UNBRIDLED x COZZENE) bred and trained by simond4 (Hornedfrog Stables, 14%) Odds:15-1
The last two races do not inspire confidence. Two back, she was nine lengths out of it in the Movieland Starlet, finishing behind Demonic Presence and two others. In her last outing she was third in a four horse stakes. She needs to make a dramatic improvement to overtake several in here. The great thing about this time of year is that that’s possible. Jockey is off to a hot start in 2008.
PP 6 WANDERING STRANGER(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x DANEHILL x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by baracoon (Pierchinski Stables, 20%) Odds:23-1
Since moving to the dirt, and especially since moving to routes, this lightly raced filly has been improving dramatically. She’ll need to continue to improve at that same rate, even as she steps way up in class. Considering the class jump, she’s not a likely winner, but she deserves a better chance than 23-1.
PP 7 GRAUPOINT(KY) (POINT GIVEN x STORM CAT x VICE REGENT) bred by choke, trained by xanderman (Jrogue Stables, 16%) Odds:18-1
In her six previous starts, she’s tried graded stakes twice before, and the results were not good. In September she was well behind Justify and five others in the Margarine Stakes, and last month she was well beaten by It’s Rather Cloudy and Miss Hennypenny in the Boca Stakes. Barn is hoping for sudden maturity since she turned three.
PP 8 BATTLE DRIVEN(KY) (RAHY x LEAR FAN x
As a longshot last time, she made the kind of jump in speed figures that others in here are hoping to make this time. That last race was the owner-restricted DelPenn Juvenile Filly, where she made a strong move – moving from 20th up to finish 2nd. Normally owner-restricted races are not to be confused with real graded races, but DelPenn races usually are just as tough. Huge jump last time makes 13-1 very tempting.
PP 9 LUCK(AUS) (BRADBURY’S LUCK x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred by reman12000, trained by justicesmu (R & R Stables, 22%) Odds: 17-1
Lone winning daughter of an infrequently used sire tried graded stakes twice before without much success, but after a handy win over a small allowance field in quick time, she comes back ready to try again. She has serious class questions to answer, but she showed last time a fondness for the distance and a big jump in speed figures. Another jump like that in this, her first race as a three-year-old could earn her a piece of the purse.
PP 10 JUSTIFY(KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x WILD AGAIN x EL GRAN SENOR) bred and trained by zwango1 (Black Label Stables, 13%) Odds: 10-1
Her quest for the early lead last time led to a speed duel and she faded late, passed by Battle Driven and others. She’ll be gunning for the lead again here, and there’s a fair chance she can get it without being pushed. The last three times that happened, she responded with three stakes wins. This is her first try at a graded stakes, though, and we usually don’t like to see even a little regression in speed figures at this point in a horse’s career, but the chance to wire the field might justify a bet.
PP 11 DEMONIC PRESENCE(KY) (VICTORY GALLOP x MINESHAFT x POLISH NUMBERS) bred and trained by taicheska (Shamran Stables, 14%) Odds: 9-1
She threw in a clunker in the Breeders Bowl, but rebounded to hang late and just miss in the Movieland Starlet last time. For 9-1 you get: the best speed figure in the race, the filly with two and a half times the stakes points as any in here, a jockey that has not only won 42% of his races this year, he’s won 40% of the track’s races, and a filly who is facing a weaker field than she’s been running against. Ignore at your peril. On the downside, her earnings and ranking are inflated by her World Cup win, and she has seldom put two good races together: up-down pattern points downward today.
PP 12 MISS SULLIVAN(KY) (A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by paulson (Galileo Stables, 13%) Odds: 16-1
Lightly raced filly tries a few new things today. It’s her first graded stakes, her first turf-to-dirt race, her first route on a fast track. Breeding credentials are beyond reproach, but the class jump makes her a risky bet. She should add to what early speed there is in the race. Jockey can’t seem to find a live mount.
PP 13 RUBY GLOOM(TUR) (STRIKE THE GOLD x STORM CAT x AFLEET) bred and trained by beamerback (Beamerback Farm, 10%) Odds: 8-1
The gloomy news is that her lone route was sandwiched by a pair of sprints where she was both faster and finished higher. The good news is that she is one of the few in here who have actually won unrestricted graded stakes, so if it turns out she can handle the distance, she can handle the class.
PP 14 RATTYBURG(KY) (
Joined Miss Hennypenny in the Santa Jezebel a couple weeks ago. Didn’t set the world on fire there, but if fit she deserves a second chance at this class level. She does like the distance – she’s tied for the most route wins here with three. Speed figures say she belongs with these, but connections would probably like to see a hotter pace up front.
PP 15 BALLAD(KY) (ELUSIVE QUALITY x SAINT BALLADO x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by super29 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 12%) Odds: 12-1
She tries a new song this time, stretching out for her first route. Both sire and dam sire make that look like a promising tune. Her figures are a bit light and her only three times out of the money came in her only three graded starts. Her decent sprint speed should put her near the early lead, and that looks like a good place to be.
Summary: Several angles apply here: From a class and speed figure standpoint, Demonic Presence is the choice. From the standpoint of which filly do you wish you owned, It’s Rather Cloudy is the choice. From a pace handicapping angle, the choice is Justify. From the angle of “You’ll kick yourself if you did not pick my,” is Lovestruck. The official timmn choice: Justify/Lovestruck/It’s Rather Cloudy.