Is Secretariat’s Kentucky Derby Record Time in Danger This Year?
As I wrote previously, I’m basically ok with the rearranged and decompressed Triple Crown series for this year, noting various rearrangements and gaps between races in previous years.
However, the four-month delay of the Kentucky Derby (G1) could cause an event in which a very big asterisk would need to be inserted in the record book: That is if a 3-year-old should break Secretariat’s stakes record in the Derby. (Secretariat also owns the track record, but there would be no need for an asterisk on that achievement.)
As the Kentucky Derby has always been run on or right around the first Saturday in May, an early September Derby gives this year’s crop of maturing 3-year-olds a 1/3 of a year advantage over Secretariat. So how likely is it one of this year’s crop can take advantage of the extra time.
Two other horses have crossed the finish line under the 2:00 mark in the actual Kentucky Derby, Monarchos (1:59.97) and Sham. Now Sham’s time based on lengths back converted to time in fifths of a second added to Secretariat’s final time of 1:59 2/5 gives him a time of 1:59 4/5-2:00 1/5. However, two separate examinations of the difference in time between the two make that gap .348 seconds or .34 seconds, and given that Secretariat could have raced the distance in anywhere from 1:59.40 to 1:59.59, that would give Sham a time of 1:59.74 to 1:59.93 if timed in hundredths.
There are many 1 1/4-mile races (albeit at different tracks) we can look at to examine if the extra time can give one of this year’s sophomores an edge over Secretariat. On the last Saturday of August 2016, Arrogate stormed the Travers (G1) setting a track record while completing the race in 1:59.36, or 1:59 1/5. Arrogate, of course, was a pretty special horse.
Tiznow came close in his Super Derby (G1, 2000). He also set a track record in getting the 10 furlongs in 1:59.84 (1:59 4/5). Now that race was run on September 30 of that year so he had additional growing time. Two week’s later another 3-year-old of that crop would take on elders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and would get the distance faster than Secretariat in the Derby. On that day, Albert the Great won by six lengths stopping the clock in 1:59.24 (1:59 1/5).
In 2012, following a fifth-place performance in the Haskell (G1), Dale Romans shipped Dullahan to Del Mar to take on older horses in the Pacific Classic (G1). In that late August race, Dullahan finished the 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.54, equaling Secretariat’s fractional time on a sloppy track. In the inaugural running of the race in 1991, Best Pal won in a time of 1:59 4/5, with Unbridled third.
That’s only a handful of 3-year-olds who have eclipsed or approached Secretariat’s Derby time four or so months later (again different tracks). So while it’s within the realm of possibility the feat is accomplished this year, it certainly seems unlikely with the track condition having to be just so. Further, looking at the race histories for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, there haven’t been a lot of older horses capable of challenging Secretariat’s Derby time either.
i don’t think his record should even be on the table. honestly i don’t think we should even have a triple crown winner. the Belmont wasn’t 1 1/2 miles. unless they lengthen the Preakness then honestly it should be called the covid crown.
While the Preakness was run at 12 furlongs for 17 of its first 18 renewals, I don’t think they would want to place a 1 1/2-mile race that close to the Breeders’ Cup. The Preakness also was run at 1 1/16 miles or shorter on 17 occasions and at nine furlongs 14 times, including in Sir Barton’s Triple Crown year. As for the Belmont: http://btb.ehorseracing.com/?p=52124
While I completely understand your logic. Most purist will. I could easily argue this years triple crown is more difficult then ever. Think about it- the horse needs to stay sound, run races between the triple crown, late arriving 3 year olds, ect, ect, ect. The Preakness (although a great race) is pretty easy to win as the derby winner in normal years. Because its only 2 weeks after most of the horses are either retreads from the derby and horses that cant make the derby. This year is completely different. 3 races spread apart this year will give everyone horse a legitimate shot. I understand the 3 races in 5 weeks thing, but for me a triple crown winner needs to be great for months. Just not weeks.
” I understand the 3 races in 5 weeks thing, but for me a triple crown winner needs to be great for months. Just not weeks.”
We are not talking winners as much as we are talking Time?
For a record to be broken the playing field should be level and if Secretariat’s stakes record in the Derby was broken then (Because of what you explained in your write up) the playing field would diffidently not be level ! Agreed the track record should be up for grabs BUT not the Derby record or at least not without an asterisk. My Money will be on Secretariat’s stakes record in the Derby NOT to be broken.
Running the races out of order is absurd and I refuse to watch or wager on any of them.
These particular three races have been run in a different order many times before, two falling on the same day occasionally and even two of the races being run at the same track on the same day on one occasion. Gallant Fox won his Triple Crown running the Preakness first (and Sir Barton his with a nine-furlong Preakness and 11-furlong Belmont).
Absurd in the modern age.
The year Monarchos ran a sub two minute Derby the Churchill surface might as well have been the Autobahn, times were silly the entire day. Outside of situations like that, or maybe a sealed track with a real mud monster running, I would think the record is safe.