Winterthur Oaks
DPCD VI:
A Mile and 3 eighths on the Fast Dirt
Fillies and Mares 3 years old
The end of the year approaches and Del Penn’s Winterthur Oaks has brought together a group of 3 year old fillies from all walks of life, from one time maiden claimer to multiple grade 1 winner; all in search of a Grade 1 win to end the year on a high.
Here’s the field as it stands:
1. Aspet (IRE) 25/1
(Shamardal x Caerleon x Ribot)
This daughter of Shamardal is a part of his first sim crop and she’s been fairly successful for her trainer so far.
A consistent allowance runner managing 4 wins so far in her career.
All she has really done so far is work through conditioned allowances and even her last two performances, which resulted in wins at 12 and 13F, have not produced the outstanding SP figures of some others in this field.
She may well take to the shorter distance and raise her speed figure dramatically in which case she might cause a boil over but her racing history would suggest this is unlikely.
Outsider and will need luck to figure here.
2. Awesomeseekngold 11/1
(Awesome Again x Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II) thebear20
Unlike many in this field, this chestnut filly is very inconsistent and has a habit of causing surprises in big races (although not always good ones).
This year has seen her claim 2 stakes victories, one of which was against the boys in January, and a couple of top 3 finishes in stakes races but she hasn’t produced a big win yet.
She looks much more comfortable at 9 furlongs and will probably find this too long and too tough.
If she somehow manages to get the distance, look for her to sprint home late.
Place chance at best if she runs the distance.
3.
(Golden Missile x Northern Baby x Conquistador Cielo) ghorseguy
Unlike those above her on the card, Nancy’s Boots certainly takes to the 11F nicely.
Her best effort at the distance was good enough for a 2nd place in a Grade 3 although she was also 2nd in the Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes at this distance.
If she can hit a speed figure of somewhere around 100-105 she should be right up there at the finish, flying home from out of the clouds.
Good place chance and better if everything suits.
4. Black Tuesday 9/2
(Storm Cat x Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells) fairhaven2
Dream breeding anyone? If you can breed one with better lines, you’re a better man than I.
Strangely enough, it took her until March of this year to win a stakes race (look at the breeding people, she should’ve won every race she’s ever been in!!!) but ever since it’s been nothing but onwards and upwards.
Another stakes win, a Grade 3 win and 3 Grade 1 wins later, she’s the number 1 ranked classic and long routing 3 year old filly and is the one to beat here.
She’s done her best work at 10F but did win the Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes at this distance and should be fine.
If you think the others are coming from the clouds, this one might well be 10+ lengths back at the 3rd call but she’ll quite possibly still catch the leaders as she finishes like a steam train.
Best 3yo filly out there and the one to beat here.
5. Prominent 11/1
(Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II x Halo) lenny3
This lightly raced filly has had just 11 starts for 4 wins including a Grade 3 for the pg45 stable.
Since moving stable mid-year, she has been good but not great, chalking up speed figures around the 100 mark and managing a win in a NW4L allowance.
If she’s to make her mark here, she’ll need to get right up there with the leaders and try and pick off the tiring frontrunners whilst holding off the late closers.
A tough ask for sure, but she should be competitive here.
Good place chance, capable of winning if things go her way.
6. Sight to See 28/1
(Rainbow Quest x Sadler’s Wells x Valid Appeal starstruck
Probably the weakest in a strong field, this filly may indeed be ‘starstruck’ by some of the fillies in this race.
Her speed figures have never set the world alight, and even her best effort of a 96 won’t go far enough here.
She generally drops back in the pack and you’ll know her chances at the halfway mark (whether she’s made a move or not).
The outsider for good reason, but certainly a solid stakes level filly with a big 4 year old year ahead.
Others better.
7. K’s Kuriara 10/1
(Awesome Again x
Out of nowhere and in a matter of a couple of minutes, this filly jumped into the limelight when winning a 12F stakes race with a 109 whilst wiring a small but classy field.
As long as that wasn’t a one off, she’s got a big chance here and the odds are very juicy too.
A 109 SP is likely to be close to a winning performance this weekend, so if she can emulate her last start, she’ll be more than just a rabbit out the front.
There are a few front-running fillies in this race and none faster than this one, so expect to see her at the front for a large portion of the race.
Great claims at very generous odds.
8. Tick the Box(
(Brown Arc x Briartic x Quadratic) scootboy1
Well this idiot of a trainer is sure lucky.
6 months ago, this filly was entered into a 25k maiden claimer where she was spared thanks to her non-blueblood pedigree.
For a random-bred to go from maiden claimer to a grade 1 race in such a short time is an amazing thing to watch as a trainer, especially when you’ve got no control over it.
Her last start was promising with a 108 SP good enough to finish a fading 2nd over 10.5F and if she can get the extra half a furlong ok, she’ll be a real threat despite the breeding thing.
Will go to the front unless the jockey’s an idiot, and is likely to fade late whilst putting up another solid performance.
Place chance but she’ll be hard to catch all the same if things go right for her.
9. The Trident 5/1
(Ghostzapper x Gone West x A.P. Indy) asoiaf
The monster of the race, her run in the Grade 3 Breeder’s Bowl Undercard was simply amazing and a 115 SP is nothing to scoff at for sure.
If she performs anywhere near as good as that this week, she’ll wipe the floor with this field as classy as they are.
If she doesn’t, she could end up anywhere from 2nd to last.
She likes to stalk the leaders; a style that should leave her in good stead in this race with most horses either out and out leaders or backmarkers.
Could either rip them to shreds or be torn apart (don’t ask me about the third prong… who knows what else could happen).
Risky money, but hard to ignore.
10. Sisson’s Chant 5/1
(War Chant x Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky II) levers
The toast of the
Her year had been slow until July when she won at Smackdown against some classy fillies.
Since then she’s had just the 2 more starts including a 3rd place in the World Cup Ladies Nine.
Her speed figures are good but her major issue is the distance.
She’s never run more than 9F and it will be a big test to adapt to the distance in this class.
Expect her to sit near the lead and watch to see if she fades due to too much distance.
A good horse, that might not be suited to the trip; place chance at best.
11. Tough As Steel 5/1
(Ghostzapper x
The second of the Ghostzapper fillies and perhaps slightly better credentialed as well.
A World Cup winner in the Ladies Classic and a 5th place against older horses at the Breeder’s Bowl, she’s run her last 3 races against older mares.
This might be a step down in class technically but the favourites in the field are just as good as some of the older mares, so this will still be a tough assignment for this brown filly.
Her consistency is good and if she can run another 100+ speed figure, she’ll do well here and probably hit the board.
She gets a long way back before dashing home late and will be passing plenty of horses in the last few strides.
The distance suits her, the class suits her and everything looks to be in order for her to put in a good effort to finish the year.
Tough to beat and will be popular with punters.
12. A.P. Princess 10/1
(Touch Gold x Kingmambo x A.P. Indy) sharood
Last but not least, this Touch Gold filly has had a long year with 13 starts already.
She has 3 stakes wins to her name including a promising effort at this distance where she clocked a 102 SP.
A similar performance here will probably earn a top 5 finish and anything better will encroach upon the top 3.
She will have to produce the goods on the day, but her form has been fairly good ignoring her last start and the distance should prove to her liking.
Has raced in different ways of late, sometimes coming from the back and other times going to the lead.
Either way, she has claims here and is a decent each-way chance.
That’s the field for the 2007 Winterthur Oaks at DPCD VI.
As for my tips for the race, I’ll try to ignore my bias and suggest that Black Tuesday will finish off a stellar year with another Grade 1 victory. Second place should go to Tough as Steel and to make a statement, Tick the Box might just sneak in for 3rd.
Good luck to all runners!