Txmsslew Handicap will it be Silver, Oxy, or will Tropical Take home the Trophy
Thxmsslew Handicap is a 6 furlong, Grade I race, for 2 year old fillies on dirt. A field of 14 will take the gate in what looks to be a very competitive race.
1) Silver City Gal (ky) 10/1 – (Silver Train X Carson City X Roberto) Trained by Squity this filly has 7 life time starts with four wins. What concerns me about this horse is her best race was three starts back in the GI Horsehead Juvenile Fillies at 6.5 furlongs where she won posting a 91 speed. In her next start at 6 furlongs in the GI Restricted World Cup Juvenile fillies, she dropped speed fig to 86 to finish 4th though only by just under two lengths. Her next start was her only distance start where she bombed finishing dead last. She’s been on rest for almost 2 months and looks to make a fresh start; will she be able to improve? She’s being ridden by V Elliot (18.2% win) who can hopefully coax an improvement out of her. Could pull a big race or could be done for the year.
2) Clear the Lead (ire) – 6/1 – (Shamardal X Vindication X Gulch) This filly is trained by Laserbarn and has 7 life time starts. This filly is less accomplished in the graded ranks though she won in the G3 Breeders Bowl Nightcap youth dirt sprint against the boys. It was only a 4.5 furlong race and she posted an 89 speed. However, I feel less confident about her winning at 6.5 she has only one race at that distance where she finished a close second in a stakes race. She also has a second in a GI Getaway Stakes at 7 furlongs. Then a failed graded attempt at 8 furlongs. Personally I think this mare needs to be run against girls. Or stay really short. C Gerhke (15.1%) may help but I could be wrong but I get a feeling she will get out run here.
3) Full Hearts (ky) – 9/1 – (Gone West X Northern Dancer X Alydar) This little girl is trained by Saver and buddy I hope she does well for you but I think she is over her head. The breeding suggest that she would be perfect for this race, however, the most this filly has accomplished is an 82 speed in a stakes race over 5.5 furlong on good dirt. Not quite a qualifier for a GI, I am surprised she got in. If she runs poorly I would say try turf she seemed to like the off track. She does have another stakes win but it’s over a mile and only had 4 horses in it. Jockey G Stout (6.1%) Does not seem to help in the situation. This just may not be her race, I still think this is a nice little filly and she could surprise but more likely she will need some more experience to take on this kind of competition. But hey it’s worth a shot, huh.
4) Office Buster – 18/1 – (Officer X Housebuster X Phone Trick) Trained by Okieslew this brown mare has a nice 5 wins from 7 starts which include 3 stakes sprints. Unlike some of the graded winners in this race this filly brings in 5 sprint wins over 4 different distances. Experience will help her out, though her only 80’s speed came in her last race, a 6.5 furlong stakes race with only a 84. If she can pull a good speed she has a chance, but it may be hard after a career best lto. Though she’s a baby and this is the age they improve the most. Her only off the board start was also her only graded attempt and only route attempt to boot. G Maggs (8.3%) wont add much to the equation I think she will run but I don’t think she will hit the top three.
5) Fire west (fl) – 25/1 – (Fire Slam X Bright Launch X Gone West) – This filly trained by Graywolf9 is our long shot today. Her best race to date came last time out in a 50k claimer over 6.5 furlongs where she won with an 85. Her best speed before that was a 78 in a restricted allowance at the same distance. I don’t think she’s graded race material, but she will make a nice allowance horse. She needs more experience but I think she will do very well despite a cheep sire. I like this filly just not here and not yet. She needs to go through the allowance ranks to prove she belongs. But who knows. Jockey S O’Brien for some reason I could not get the stats to appear on. Good luck with this filly and hopefully she will prove good for you.
6) Oxtripper (Ky) – 10/1 – (Gulch X Dehere X Nureyev) This little girl is trained by Oxymoron2 hence the cute name. This little girl only has four starts under her belt but all 4 have been victorious. 2 open allowances and 1 stakes race at 7 furlongs show consistency and a nice margin of win. The closest she’s come to being beat was Lto in a stakes where a horse got within 1 ¼ length of her. Ya this is a tough girl, she is lest rested than some of the others, but she is a little monster. Not much more to say other than oxy can I have her, I want one. She’s an amazing little filly, good luck with her and I think she could pull this off. T Dillin (8.2%) I don’t think the jockey will have much of an effect if she’s going to win she will make it happen.
7) Gilded Edge (ky) – 8/1- (Gilded Time X Cutlass X Baederwood) this uniquely bred filly is sent to the gate by Hwhisper. This filly seems to be in a trend she won her first 4 starts and has 3 thirds out of 7 starts. She has lots of good speeds and in the GI World Cup Juvenile Fillies she was only third by a nose. She is graded placed 3 times all very respectfully. She has a legitimate chance at winning this if she can get over her third place finishes. She’s a strong fast filly and this is a fairly large field to get around. N Prescott (10.6%) is aboard and we will see if he can get this filly to break her graded curse.
8) Tropical Trophy (ky) – 7/1 – (Tropical Storm X Bahri X Machiavellian) this Brown filly is trained by Deepblue. With 10 races in her bank of experience this filly has an edge up on the competition. She is true a sprinter finishing off the board in her only route attempt. She is place in all but one of her sprint attempts and has a G3 win with an 89 speed over 6 furlongs. She looks to be a tough one to beat; I cannot see anything that would suggest she won’t be competitive. Though I would giver her a break after this race as she may be getting a bit tired out. I am surprised it has not shown up yet in her performance. She’s also hit up all the big races, so no avoiding competition with this one, a true rough competitor. N Lumpkin (8.7%) will not help much, but hopefully will not hurt her chances.
9) Ballad (ky) – 6/1- ( Elusive Quality X Saint Ballado X Mr Prospector) this chestnut filly is trained by Super29. Her best start came last time out in a 7.5 furlong stakes race where she ran second by a head with a 92 speed figure. I think this is a nice filly but I think she belongs in routes not sprints. She is getting faster and better as she goes longer. I don’t think this race will give her enough distance to really strut her stuff. Her speeds dropped when she went from a 6.5 furlong GI 82 speed to a G3 furlong with a 78 speed. I don’t think she will be happy here but it’s worth a shot. In my experience her sire is about a mile sire, so I can see where this filly would appreciate more distance than she will find here. C Culpepper (8.5%) does not seem to add or detract from her chances.
10) Porn Starr (ky) – 7/1- ( Empire Maker X Mr. Prospector X Nijinsky II) Trained by Korn this oddly named filly is bred for success. Her best race to date came 4 starts ago in the GI Horsehead Juvenile filly’s race where she finished third with an 88 speed. Since she has tried a route where she bombed, and has two stakes wins over 7 furlongs, both speeds fairly unimpressive. This is another filly I think wont appreciate this short race. This filly has been placed well for most of her career she has only one of her 4 wins with a full field. The two most recent wins only had 4 horses in them. I don’t think she will fare well here. R Clink (9.7%) I don’t think will be enough to help her win here.
11) Woette’s Wide Web (Tur) – 16/1 – (Mountain Cat X Montjeu (ire) X Darshaan) this filly is trained by Titje. This filly took her time breaking her maiden but she is a very nice filly none the less. However, I don’t think she is ready for this race yet. 6 furlongs will be her longest dirt race to date. All the others have come at 5.5 furlongs. I know she did not seem to shine on turf, but don’t count it out, I love her breeding but to me it says turf. Give her some time then put her back on it and make sure its firm. Her best speed of 86 came in a 5.5 furlong stakes race where she came in second and closing. 6 furlongs may be what she’s looking for, we will see. If any of the long shots have a chance she does. T Waters (10.3%) May help her out some here, hopefully it will come together. She may not have the speed.
12) Texas Winter (saf) -19/1- (Western Winter x Texas Glitter X Fappiano) This bargain bred filly is by Scorpion. With only 2 races under her belt I doubt this one will make it to the wire first. She did break her maiden last time out with a nice 88 speed in MSW Company over 6.5 furlongs. I don’t think she has the experience for this race and I think it will hurt her. For her breeding she has done very well and I expect she should do well. I fear that this race might be way too much for her. I would suggest putting her in the easiest race you can find if she loses here. L Betts (7.9%) will not help her out any in this race.
13) Linnie Niner (ky) – 8/1- (Dehere X Forty Niner X Storm Cat) this beautiful filly is trained by Karchy. Another filly with only 2 starts, again lack of experience may hurt her here. The difference between this filly and the last is she broke her maiden then ran third in a 7.5 furlong stakes with a 89 speed. Not shabby for a second start. I would be cautious about her though, only two starts though her speeds are competitive. She was also closing at 7.5 and not very fast, I think she will need more ground not less. But we will see, with so little experience she has a lot to prove and the unknown ability to do it. C V Bher (10.1%) I think may help her out some, though it’s his first year as a jockey.
14) Incredible Lucy -15/1- (Smarty Jones X Cat Theif X Forty Niner) This nice filly is trained by Tg1. 9 Starts under her belt and she has done fairy well. She has not shown much speed until her last start where she posted an 84 in a 6.5 furlong stakes race where she finished only 4th. I don’t think she can handle graded ranks yet, she has not proven she has the speed or the ability to win at stakes, with one exception at 5.5 furlongs. Do not be discourages, my Smarty was like this at 2 at 5 he’s running 110 speeds at 7 furlongs stick with her but go easy tell you find her spot even if it is allowances. D King (7.1%) will definitely not help her here.
My picks.. 1. Silver City Gal 2. Oxtripper 3. Tropical Trophy