Dunbar King Bonanza Stakes
Welcome all to Idaho in what looks to be a race with a predictable finish. We are here for the $45,000 Dunbar King Bonanza Stakes on turf at 16f, a race open to all horses 3yo and up. This will be the third running of the race and this years field is very different to most. We have one of the sims best maidens in DUR Fred, a 5yo mare in Sophie Sweet who has won 50% of her 24 career starts and we also have Confederacy – the headline act, a graded winner and with career earnings in excess of 2.7 Million dollars she really has bolstered a very average field. After being asked to cover the race and looking through the field, I was compelled to enter a horse. He will most likely be smashed after running last week but he is at the end of his career and after just missing the cut for the $3M Millwood Cup last month, I am curious to see if he gets 16f.
Worldfly’s Wells won this race in a field of 6 last year posting a 100SP in a time of 3:29 3/5 which is the time to beat. In 2005 it was Hollofly’s Hollow who beat 6 others home in a time of 3:31 1/5 to take home the chocolates. Who will it be this year? I think the race is almost over before it starts!
PP #1 – CENTERFOLD SPARK – EXPLOIT x GREEN FOREST x JAY’S DOUBLE
99/1 – no chance.
9yo mare who really doesn’t deserve this kind of flogging after she is long past her use by date. Her last effort at 16f turf was horrid posting a 41SP and she should be able to start now to make it a fair race!
PP #2 – DUR FRED(IRE) – RAKTI (GB) x STRAWBERRY ROAD(AUS) x CARO(IRE)
6/1 – will place, big future.
Magoo from the Ohio Thoroughbred Racing Residency presents us with quite possibly the sims best maiden. This 3yo Rakti colt was always going to run marathons with the likes of Caro, Nijinsky II and Rainbow Quest in his blood. Has been ultra competitive in all races up to now however is still to break through after missing narrowly a couple of times.
The centre of uproar early last month when he was balloted out of the 3 Million dollar Millwood Cup at 16f and his trainer spoke out about his potential. Many were quick to jump on the trainer but he is obviously going to be a force in the future being able to post high 90 SP’s early in his career. Nailed some big names in the G1 World Cup after running nicely and will go close again here.
Was slightly disappointing last time out at 14f and obviously ran out of ground so the 16f is great. Again he is racing against a great Graded champ this week but DUR Fred will have his first stakes place after the race is run this week. Well done Magoo!!
PP #3 – SOPHIE SWEET(IRE) – HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x THE PRIME MINISTER x PIASTER
20/1 – Consistent and should place.
Over raced? Yes – and why not. This great has had a bizarre career to date but Qwikvett of the Northwest Racing Circuit Residency has done a phenomenal job this last year with 11 wins from 15 starts in 2007. 16f is the go for this 5yo mare who raced as a sprinter as a 2yo, winning a listed stakes race and placing in her first 5 runs which were all at listed stakes level. Amazing job by the trainer and she is as consistent as just about any other horse in the sim. 8 races at 16f for 7 wins with her first loss at the trip coming last start in listed stakes company. It was a two horse race on that occasion and this race will really test her this week against Confederacy and DUR Fred. Should run 3rd after leading throughout with Confederacy stalking the whole way.
PP #4 – K’S SCHUMAN – SEEKING THE GOLD x DANEHILL x SKY CLASSIC
7/2 – short for a horse untried at the marathon trip and untried at this level.
Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation have chosen a very tough assignment for this 5yo horse who has raced exclusively at allowance level until this point. Upping the distance to 4f more than he has ever run is a risky move (but a good one) but upping the class level at the same time may bring him unstuck.
This is however a horse trained by Ledwith and who am I to pass judgment when the 29 stables operate at a 23.8% success rate??? Does have Buckpasser and Nijinsky II in his blood which will no doubt help at 16f and he did turn a 16 length deficit into a 2 ½ length win two starts back posting a 97 SP at 12f. Taking on a 2.7Million dollar Graded winner will not be easy and odds are against him this week. Has won 4 of last 5 starts but the class may be a problem.
If he gets the trip, he may just snag a place here however he must maintain his SP figures of low to mid 90’s to do so. Will most likely get back in the field and rocket home and if the trip suits – look out in the stretch for this guy!!!
PP #5 – CONFEDERACY(IRE) – HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x CAERLEON x CONQUISTADOR CIELO
4/5 – Great champion who I would love to see win it.
A very special 5yo horse who will make a cracking he-mare when he is retired with fantastic turf routing bloodlines. Not much to say when you present a 2.7 million dollar, multiple G1 winning champion of the sim. Under the training of Snowchief, he certainly looked back to his best last time out winning by 3 lengths at 13f.
This is not just another runner, he is a serious racehorse who has battled with the likes of Horseshoe Bay, Sunnybank Memorial, Lex Luther, Rapid Grey, Rain God, Puppet Regime, Cortez and Band Of Budas over his career and has still amassed over 2.5 mill – wow. Has only run at 16f once in which he was never asked to do any work and cruised home for a 6 length win over Band Of Budas over 2 yrs ago.
16f not an issue, class is well below him, B Gulch aboard with 21yrs experience and riding 21% of his horses to win, small field – Confederacy wins if he doesn’t have an off day!!!
PP #6 – CRIMSON MOON(IRE) – GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x NUREYEV
2/1 –This could get very ugly!!!
Many people would shake their heads, and rightly so. He has had no rest, is out of form and has never run over 10f. I know he may get smashed but he will become a he-mare in 2008 if he doesn’t return to form at 9f, so why not try it?
A $30,000 claim in Feb this year he has had 11 starts for 4 wins and a stakes placing. Was disappointing in Coxless Stakes two starts back and was waving the white flag in his last run after being forced by the jockey to be ridden at 0.50 to the leader. Jockey has no instructions this week and will hopefully rate him back in the field and let him run home. No legitimate chance at all!!
So there we have it folks.
Sophie Sweet to lead for most of the race with Confederacy stalking her and cruising past in the stretch to take the win ahead of a fast finishing DUR Fred in 2nd, Sophie Sweet to hold for 4th, K’s Schuman 4th, Crimson Moon wanting to retire in 5th and an outclassed war horse in Centrefold Spark last!!!