Thirteen colts. Eight Furlongs. Just one Upper State Juvenile winner.
Juvenile competition continues with the arrival of the annual Upper State Juvenile Stakes. The G3, traditionally held at the Northern California track on the dirt, this year features several very promising youngstersin the hunt for a graded win and the lion’s share of the $150k purse.
Our field favorite, Urban Storm Cat, is 5-1 on the morning line. Triscay’s Storm Cat youngster has two wins form three starts, including a pair of 90 SPs in his maiden victory and a mile stake last out. Urban is a deep closer who’ll come charging from way back in the stretch. He’s turning around in just four weeks, a bit close for his age especially considering this will be his fourth start in 11 weeks. So far the heavy schedule hasn’t been a problem, however, and the colt clearly relishes new challenges.
Theatrical enters Gratest at 6-1. The Congrats colt posted an eye-popping 96SP in winning the G2 End Of The Line at 8.5f five weeks ago. He’s got four wins from eight starts, and holds the #9 divisional ranking. Clearly a major threat in this field, but he too likes to close from the back, though he has demonstrated he can stay closer to the pace. Just got up to win by a head in that G2 last out, will dropping back to a mile suit him? Would much prefer to see him stay at 8.5 or even hunt down a rare 9f race.
The obligatory Super entry, Rave, runs for Super27 and is in at 6-1. This one has some major credibility here, with a third in the G2 Little Tree at 6f and an excellent win in a 7f listed stake on his record. First start at a mile, but the 86 and 86SP he earned for the 6f and 7f races respectively suggest going longer is ok with him. Add in his parentage (he’s by Awesome Again) and there’s no reason to suspect he’ll find a mile difficult at all. He’s very well-rested after a seven-week break, and should be ready to really step it up.
What a name for Rvd’s entry. God’s Shoeshine, 7-1 on the morning line, has a single win to his credit, an 8f MSW victory. The 90SP he earned for that win in his second start merited a try in the G2 End Of The Line, but Shoeshine finished fourth by nine lengths with an 85SP. A decent performance, but hardly impressive. Still, it was good enough to support another shot at graded. Dropping back to a flat mile to mirror his maiden win conditions is a good idea. The Awesome Again colt likes to settle in within a few lengths of the lead when he can, so watch for a solid and gradual move forward in the stretch.
Lacostra’s Seeking The Gold colt Buda The Explorer is 8-1 on the toteboard. The colt won his debut at a mile with a strong 78SP back in July, and went straight for graded. He placed third in the G2 BTB Cup on Sim History Day, also running a mile though this time in the mud, to earn a 84SP as he made up ground at the wire. The colt last ran six weeks ago in the G3 North Fork. He earned a good SP (83) but lost by over eight lengths. Was that just a fluke? We’ll find out here.
Apparently we have a mini-religious naming theme with the field, as the second of three 8-1 horses is Jesus Walks. Milesius’ Came Home colt broke his maiden in his second start, taking a 5f race by a length and a half. He went straight to stakes company and repeated that 1.5 length win with a pace-pressing trip. Off to grades for start #4 last out made sense, but the colt settled for fourth (90SP) in the G3 Cryogenics. Was it the mile distance? The graded level? The seven weeks between races? We’ll find out here, as the colt tries the same level and distance again , though this time off an eight-week rest.
The final 8-1 entrant, Forest Ambush, has but one win in five starts, but don’t let that win rate fool you. The Forest Wildcat colt is quite talented. He’s not yet in the same league as his graded-winning peers, but he was just three lengths out of the win in his only graded start (the G3 Closest Friends at 6f) three back. Ambush’s biggest advantage here is his versatility. He’s stakes-placed on the lead. He’s a winner stalking. He’s also stakes-placed coming from toward the back. With a top SP of 88 he’ll need to improve several points to win, but lionart’s colt looks capable of that.
Thecrow has Fatal Consequences. Well, he has a colt named Fatal Consequences. That colt, a son of Macho Uno, won his only mile trip in a listed stake, and is stakes-placed at 7.5 and 8.5f. Heady stuff indeed for the 9-1 colt. His top SP of 85, earned in that mile win, is good but not yet good enough to win this race. He’s got a nice easy front-running style that could work well in this race, assuming he’s fast enough to hold off his speedy closer peers.
Moving into double-digit odds, Larbare enters the A.P. Indy son Unprohibited at 12-1. The colt broke his maiden in start #3 at 7.5f, then turned around a month later to notch a stakes win at 7.5f by a nose with an 85SP. So a trip to the G2 Darling-Squash Futurity at a mile made sense, right? Not judging by the colt’s last place finish with a lifetime-low SP of 66. He’s had seven weeks to recover and at this point there is no reason to believe the colt has any limitations as to distance or class. This race should give a good indication of his future prospects.
Also at 12-1 is Djiin’s Crazy Miner. The Stormin Fever colt broke his maiden at first asking back in June, was lackluster in the G3 Midsoil in July, then finally showed off with a 1-length loss for fourth in the G3 Camel Juvenile at a mile in September. A drop back to listed company at 8.5f seven weeks ago gave Crazy his stakes win. He posted at 89SP for the huge 4 1/2 length win. The impressive performance sets him up very nicely for future success, but like Gratest I believe Crazy will do his best running at 8.5 and longer.
Winnett enters E Z Warrior at 14-1. The Storm Cat colt makes his stakes debut in very tough company. Warrior debuted at a mile on dirt to run a fading fourth after leading through the first half. In his second start, a 6f MSW, the colt put it all together for a wire-to-wire win. He repeated the winner’s circle trip in a 7f dirt allowance, this time coming from off the pace. The trainer tossed the colt onto the grass for his fourth and most recent start, choosing a mile allowance. Given the 18-length loss and lifetime-low 63SP, it appears Warrior prefers to eat grass, not run on it. Many horses do very well returning to their preferred surface; if warrior is one of those, he should do well in this race. The big concern will be class. He’s still untested at the stakes level, and faces a fast, talented group of colts.
Many, perhaps most, graded races feature at least one T/Ted entrant. This race is no exception, as Arrive Alive Ted is in at 20-1 to represent the Puddinpuss stable. The First Samurai colt took three tries to get his first win, but he finally figured the running game out in a 6.5f MSW two back. The colt broke sharply and took the lead in short order to win by two lengths. Sent off to allowance company last out, the colt changed it up a bit to push the lead through three-quarters before taking over the lead for a 3/4 length win at 7.5f. He’s making two big changes by going to a mile and bypassing listed ranks for grades, but he’s steadily improved SPs and seems to handle new tasks with aplomb. The top SP of 80 is a bit concerning, however.
The final entrant at 26-1 is Madhouse3’s Lime Cake. He’s won two of two mile starts, both by a length and a half. Like Arrive Alive, Lime Cake is also jumping to grades and has a top SP of just 80. Because he’s perfect at a mile however, of the two Lime Cake has to be the preferred horse. He’s a son of Limehouse, and we hope has inherited his daddy’s good juvenile form.Can close or stay near the pace as needed.
Based purely on previously-earned SPs, you’ve got to think Gratest has this race sewn up. I think he’ll find himself out of room in the stretch, however, leaving room for Urban Storm Cat and Rave to duke it out. I’ll give the nod to first-time router Rave rather than Urban Storm Cat solely because I suspect Urban will face similar troubles as Gratest will likely experience.