Red Bird Handicap
The Grade III Red Bird Handicap for 3YO+ fillies and mares is filled with beautifully bred horses, mostly 3YOs, who have been successful in the smaller stakes races but not so in the grades stakes. This 1M race on the turf in
ALMARAZI (11-1)
Almushtarak x Arazi
This 3YO filly has finished in the money in 22 of its 28 races including 10 stakes wins and earlier this year it won the Grade II Whodini. This sprinter is ranked 51st and looks like it could use the added distance. This will only be its second race at 1M or longer and O/T greyghost hopes the longer distance will break its string of not reaching the winner circle in 8 races. I look for this long shot to post a 99 rating which will most likely not be enough for this youngster, but it will find the winners circle next year quite often.
CHATEAU STAR (18-1)
Fusaichi Pegasus x War Chant
This lightly raced 4YO has 5 wins in its 10 races. O/T chateau has brought this filly up slowly through the allowance conditions and Saturday it hopes to press the pace. This girl has won 4 of its last 6 races is coming off a 6 weeks rest. It has faded in its last two races over 1M and with the rest I can see this winner of only one stakes race to post a 108 like it did 2 races back. At 18-1 it’s going to be hard not to place a few $$ on this one. My feeling is that this filly will race probably one more year before it is bred and by that time it should have a few graded stakes wins under its belt.
FREEZING (15-1)
Zabeel x Barathea
This front runner will hope to go wire to wire Saturday. The distance seems to be a problem for this 3YO filly which has one win in its last four races. It was over its head last out in a Grade I race at 6 ½ furlongs. Today I expect it to post a 103 rating which will put it up among the leaders in the stretch if it doesn’t fade.
GONE WYLDE (12-1)
Gone West x Northern Dancer
This 4YO filly is a 2-time stakes winner and 3 races back it won the Grade II Davarto Coker
MAMBOGATE (8-1)
Lydgate x Kingmambo
This 3YO filly has finished in the money in 14 of its 16 sprint races. The last four races this girl has posted triple digit numbers for O/T glbstable and the added distance should be a blessing. This 2-time winner of stakes races hopes sit about 3 to 5 lengths off the leaders as they head into the stretch and with a nice kick due to the extra distance should post a nice 105 or better rating.
SPIN WITH PRIDE (14-1)
Spinning World x Kingmambo
This 3YO won last out with a 103 at 1M in an allowance race which broke a string of four disappointing races. Those races it seemed to be misplaced in those graded stakes. This stakes winner of 6 races back should be able to pop a 102 on Saturday and it has finished in the money in six of its 7 route races.
LADY’S NEW CAUSE (7-1)
This closer has struggled in stakes races and graded level races. It seems to have broken its trend of fading in the stretch based on its last two races. This lightly raced 3YO filly has broken the triple digit rating in its last 5 races and could easily post a 104 or better rating. It does have only one win in 5 races after it started out with 4 wins in its first six races. Not sure why but I have a feeling O/T ladyssecre plans on changing its style and have it press the pace and go for the win.
FIVE CIRCLES (12-1)
Olympio x Kris S.
This 5YO mare is the off track specialist that has not been in the winners circle in its last four races. This true closer should be about 8 to 10 lengths off the leaders as they head into the stretch. This 2-time winner of stakes races hopes the turf is not firm as it has only 5 wins in 26 starts on a firm surface. If the surface is not firm this is a dangerous horse with 7 wins in 14 starts under those conditions. Last out it posted a 97 on a firm surface at 7 furlongs and it needed more distance that it will get today.
THEORY OF LOVE (9-1)
Forestry x Capote
This lightly raced 3YO just missed last out in the Cavalcade Mile. This filly started her career on the turf but switched to the dirt races winning one stakes race. Its last two races have been on turf resulting in a 106 averaged rating, but it will be racing on only two weeks rest. O/T cub’s switch to turf has awakened this filly and it should be a major threat on Saturday.
WONDERGIRL CHERYL (12-1)
Sakhee x
This 6YO mare hopes to go wire to wire Saturday. The last 3 graded stakes races have been disappointing for O/T wonder2. Prior to its current slide it had four triple digit speed ratings with a 103 average; which includes a stakes win at 1 1/4M. This 5-time stakes winner seems to be best suited for races at 10 furlongs, but with its style it could pull off an upset.
FOUGHT THE LAW (18-1)
Empire Maker x
This 3YO filly is already a 2-time stakes winner that has struggled in its last 7 graded stakes races. This has struggled in its last 3 races especially with declining numbers which is a bad sign. The 5 week layoff should help stop the slide but I’m not sure if this filly needs a longer race to finally break into the graded stakes winners circle
Miswaki x
This 5YO mare has already earned $1.9M for O/T ajr15 in 39 races. This is one of the great turf horses on the circuit with 15 turf wins in 29 starts, but fourteen of those wins were in sprints. This 9-time winner of stakes races also has wins in the Grade II Independence Day BB Stakes at 1M and the Grade I The No Respect Blitz in 06. This year it won the Grade III Boon Turf Stakes at 6 furlongs five races back. It definitely needs the added distance of today’s race since it has struggled badly in 3 of its last four races. This closer could pop a 104 rating.
LAMENTATIONS (6-1)
War Chant x Sadler’s Wells
This 4YO filly is the winner of the Grade II Pepperton Mile two races back with a very nice 107 rating. If this horse is sharp it will easily post a 104 and probably better as it will press the pace. A problem I see for this co-favorite is that it has faded when trying to go wire to wire. Don’t leave this beauty out of your trifecta as it has scored in 15 of its 22 route turf races.
AURUM PRADO (9-1)
El Prado x Seeking the Gold
This 4YO filly has struggled in stakes races as it has only one win in 12 attempts. It looks like it will also go for the lead and try to win the graded race wire to wire. In its last two races at 1 1/16M it has posted a 105 rating and with a drop in distance this might solve its tendency to fade in the stretch. This winner of 3 of its last six races seems to be limited to races at 1M which if it can overcome its bad post position could shock the two co-favorites it will be racing next to.
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