Arkansas Minstrel Draws Six
The third running of the Arkansas Minstrel Memorial is being run this weekend in Texas. Six horses are entered and have a chance at the $55,000 purse in the fourteen furlong grass affair. A maiden, a horse with seventeen wins, and four horses at various stages in their careers are the contenders.
1) Silvershaft (9/2) lenny6: Silvershaft, a four year old son of Mineshaft, is a nice horse. He really is. He just took *600 cpu conditioned allowance horses wire to wire last out at this exact distance. He ran second for the exact same condition in his previous race. He won wire to wire three starts back against n1n company going 12f. He’s a nice horse. And nice horses usually do well at marathon stakes when there is a graded stakes that same day because all of the tough competition is off on the other side of the world chasing some cup. And while this is a small field, there actually aren’t any pushovers in here and Silvershaft might be up against it today. He’s got a chance if he can get clear and set a slow pace, but there is definitely other speed in here. Nine to two is a bit of an underlay I believe here.
2) Gutt Rock (13-1) deeprock15: Four year old filly has been a bit inconsistent of late, running a speed fig in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s in her last four races. She’s shown an ability to be competitive in marathon routes with a win and a couple of seconds this year, but she seems a step or two slower than the best here. She does have one advantage – she’ll want to be rallying from far back and there definitely will be enough pace on today. If she’s capable of relaxing early and runs her best race, she can certainly rally and pass a few of them and perhaps if things fall her way maybe run them all down.
3) Dur Fred (9-1) a2912: Ahh, the maiden. Trained by Magoo, this three year old son of Rakti tried upsetting the apple cart in the World Cup Turf Marathon by running a very strong fifth at odds of 48-1. He’s clearly improving (he ran a lifetime best speed figure of 98 last time) as he’s getting older and the distances keep getting longer. He’s never run 14 furlongs before – he ran two miles in the SWC Turf Marathon and twelve furlongs before that. He might be the one horse in the field that would benefit the most from an extra quarter mile. While he displays tactical speed and is definitely not a one dimensional front runner and stays on well, he also never has displayed the turn of foot needed to actually pass too many horses. It’s an interesting dilemma for a trainer – you have a maiden that has displayed no will to win, but also has displayed enough ability to compete in Grade 1 races. He’s likely to get a great trip sitting behind three front runners all intent on taking the field wire to wire. Is he going to be able to take advantage of it? Or is he going to be content to move into second position and let one of them do the running on to the end?
4) Stronghold (3-1) jonsnow: Five year old trained by given, this guy’s had a nice career; Ten wins, over $350k earned. He’s still putting up the numbers, running a 101 speed figure last out while fifth in a listed stakes in Virginia. There’s just one fact that can’t be ignored about Stronghold – he’s run fourteen furlongs three times: His speed figures for those attempts? 86, 87, and 88. He’s a fine and classy horse up to about a mile and a half. That last quarter mile is a killer though, and even though one of those 14f attempts resulted in a win, I’d be leery about betting this guy at 3-1.
5) Spanish Heart (2-1) noia: Spanish Heart on the other hand seems perfectly suited to this mile and three quarters distance. He tried the SWC Turf Marathon in his last race and pressed the pace and faltered badly late (getting beat by Dur Fred in that race). But he’d shown in the past that two miles was just a little further than he wanted to go. His previous three 14f races were all pace pressing wins by daylight. He’s going to have company on the front end, but his win two back was especially impressive, showing an added dimension of being able to sit second just off the pace and still run on in the stretch. He’s not a lock here at 2-1 (the outside horse is pretty darned good as well and who knows if Dur Fred will keep on improving), but he’s going to be up close early and will very likely be hanging around until the bitter end.
6) Wingfly’s Dancer (2-1) lafly: Wingfly’s Dancer rounds out the field of six and makes handicapping the race just a little bit more complicated. Trained by Brundlefly, WD has a pretty simple plan. Get the lead and hold on to it as long as he can. It’s how he’s gotten seventeen wins from just thirty seven starts. If he can’t get the lead, he loses interest. If he gets the lead and is able to get clear, he might prove really, really tough to catch.
That’s the field – there are only six of them, but three of them all want the lead and will have the rapidly improving Dur Fred looming right behind them to pounce should they go too fast. The handicapper in me rebels against betting a front runner at 2-1 if I’m not even sure they’re going to get the lead, so the pick here has to be someone that doesn’t want it. I don’t think the filly is fast enough and I don’t think Stronghold wants the distance – that leaves the maiden Dur Fred, who might not quite be ready to pass quality, stakes proven front runners. In a case like this, price rules the day – the pick, Dur Fred at 9-1.