Big Race Preview 3392

Just two grade one races this week. It is the big two mile event from down under in the Millwood Cup. We have quite a collection of two mile runners that should make for a great race. We also have a turf sprint for fillies and mares that has drawn a very competitive and talented group. Lets get to this weeks races.

Race:  3392.4210 Millwood Cup – Grade I – $3,000,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Two miles on the Turf

We have co favorites in what is the greatest test of stamina the most prestigious two mile race in the sim. Total Chaos and Gold Doors are your five to one co favorites on the morning line.  Both runners are experienced at the distance but in a race like this a long shot may be just as likely to win than the favorite.

Total Chaos has won his last two starts at the two mile distance. He has taken the grade two Longchamp Marathon and grade one Gold Glass over the summer. He ran second three times with some of the better mile and a half horses in the sim and third to Horseshoe Bay at the Sand Castle Golden Turf. He has the class and he has the victories appearing to be better at the longer distances. He has not run that huge speed figure at the distance but he has not had to do that to this point. He is usually close to the early pace and should be stalking today.

Gold Doors has a win at the distance as well although not at the graded level. He just missed at the World Cup at this distance and is running well at a mile and a half at the graded level. He is not as accomplished as he fellow favorite but has been running speed figures a little better than his fellow favorite. He comes from way off the pace and that might not be a good place to be in a race like this.

Band of Budas has a pair of grade one wins at this distance. He won the World Cup last time out and earlier this year won the grade one Bourbon Cup. He ran a a very good second in the grade two Iago where he ran a 107 speed figure at fourteen furlongs. His speed figures are pretty good and he has shown he has the class at the distance. In his one try against Total Chaos he finished fourth and was well back. That was on an off surface which Band of Budas does not like so this time could be different. He too is a deep closer and will have to do it from way off the pace.

Pedro Extremist is a runner that has not run at the graded level. He is a runner though that should be respected. He has won four listed stakes in a row and has a couple of very nice speed figures like 105 and 107 in those wins. He has not run this far but his last three races have been at 14, 14, and 13 furlongs so I do not think it will be a stretch for him to get the distance. He runs close to the pace and that could be an advantage here with several of the favorites being deep closers.

Three year old filly Tilt a Whirl is an interesting choice here. She probably is not a player for the win in this race however she is a runner that is very capable of running in the money here. She is a deep closer and has really improved over the summer and improved as the distances have gotten longer. She has run second in her last three all at the fourteen furlong distance. Her last was a good run in a grade two race with solid speed figures. Her biggest thing to over come will be her deep, deep closing style but a runner to watch for.

Mile for Mile is another interesting three year old. He had a try at the distance in July and it was not a bad effort for a three year old. He has really started to improve in the last couple of months and comes off a pair of strong allowance wins. His last was at a mile and a half where he earned a 104 speed figure. I do not think the extra half mile will hurt and he should be close to the pace.

Race: 3392.3616 Triptych Memorial – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Ostend
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: Six furlongs on the Turf

Herbalism leads a full field of fillies and mares in a grade one turf sprint. Herbalism is the five to one morning line favorite. She had a seven race win streak snapped last time out as she lost by three quarters of a length. Her only other defeat of the year came by a nose in her 2007 debut. She has not tested the graded waters all year though so this is a different level of competition than she is used to. She can run a big speed figure as she runs mid 100s and has a 111 earlier this year. She is a stalker and will likely be mid pack early. Hard to go against her with her record.

Dance Seeker is a graded stakes veteran unlike the favorite. She comes into the race off a third place run in the World Cup. She has a pair of grade two wins and a pair of grade three wins sprinting on the turf this year In her grade one tries she has been second and third so the class edge appears to be on her side. She is a middle of the pack closer that runs consistently in the mid 100s. She should be a factor in this race.

Buda for a Day is this years Thousand Guineas winner. That is one of the most prestigious turf races for three year old fillies and is run at a mile. She backed that win up with a  grade one win at the one mile Cremation Stakes. She has been a good miler this year and after a disappointing finish in the World Cup Mile she is dropping back to sprints. She may be better at a mile than she is in a sprint but you must respect the talent she has shown. If the shorter distance is not a problem she is in with a big chance. She will probably come from well off the pace.

Eye of the World was the winner at the World Cup Filly Sprint. She closed form more than ten lengths off the pace that day to get the win. She has been getting better as the year has gone along. She earned a 106 speed figure last time and prior to that had a 104 so she can run with these. She is likely to come from way off the pace so look for her closing late.