Future Stars Series – Grab a Beignet and Watch 9 Run in a 8f Louisiana NW2L (Part 1)
First, a quick recap of last week’s race. Pancakes and Beer really wanted to get to the post-race buffet and he bolted for the front early, just narrowly grabbing the lead over Unjustify. The two of them dueled for the first half of the race, but Pancakes and Beer would give way at about the halfway point, ceding the lead to Unjustify. From there, it was just a question of whether Unjustify could hold on, or whether the closers would get to him. But in the end, it was Unjustify ($12.50) who dug in gamely and held on for a ¾ length victory, earning an 86 SP in the win. Howe To Cross and OG By My Standards both came flying from the back (Howe To Cross from 9 lengths back, OG By My Standards from 11 lengths back) and got very close, but couldn’t quite get there. Those two hit the wire together, both ¾ lengths behind the winner, with Howe To Cross earning the photo for 2nd and OG By My Standards settling for 3rd. Pancakes and Beer held on for 4th, 3 lengths back.
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This week, the Future Stars Series orders things Cajun style, as we head to Louisiana where 9 horses do battle in an 8 furlong NW2L Allowance. The field is:
#1 – Song Ready (More Than Ready x Danzig x Unbridled’s Song) – Owned by stockswami24 -9/2
Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $38,590
Capsule: Song Ready made his debut at 6f in a March 17 MSW. There, he stalked the pace early and then showed why he was the 6/5 favorite, grabbing the lead at the top of the stretch and then pulling away to win by 1-1/4 lengths. But he’s struggled in 2 allowances since. After tiring at 6.5f in his 2nd start, he came back last time out at 6f and passed some tiring horses, finishing 3rd and earning a career high 75 SP. This will be his first routing attempt. Song Ready is a scratch-bred foal of More Than Ready, out of a Danzig mare. More Than Ready ($80,000) was the #8 ranked US sire in 2018. His 2018 sim crop is probably his best crop, currently ranking #11 with 125 winners from 142 runners, and his 2019 crop is currently #27 with 38 winners from 110 runners. The 2018 crop includes 14 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners, and the 2019 crop already has 3 stakes winners (including 1 graded stakes). More Than Ready’s progeny have a strong preference towards dirt (66% of earnings on dirt) and favor sprinting generally (58% of earnings and 62% of wins in sprints), and his 7.14 sim AWD is pretty close to his real world 7.09 AWD. The More Than Ready x Danzig cross has been used 22 times over the past 5 years, producing 20 winners. 5 of those are stakes winners, with 2 graded stakes winners. The cross produces mostly dirt sprinters, but there is a smattering of turf and route runners in there. Song Ready (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.79) might be reaching his distance limit here, and he’ll need to take a pretty big step forward to keep up with some of his competitors here.
Watch Level: Medium
#2 – Royal Satsuma (Imperialism x Satsuma Clan [Afleet x Lyphard]) – Owned by bumpercrop – 9/1
Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $20,220
Capsule: Royal Satsuma began his racing career on July 27 in a 5f local MSW for Canadian-bred horses. In that field of 10, Royal Satsuma went off as the 5/1 third choice and didn’t disappoint. He sat towards the back early in the race (though it was only 2 lengths off the pace), and started to move up just as some of his other competitors started to tire. As they closed in on the finish line, Royal Satsuma dug in and caught the leader, winning by ¾ length with a 74 SP. He’ll make a leap out of local company for today’s race. Royal Satsuma is the 5th foal from 11yo mare Satsuma Clan, and is by Canadian sire Imperialism. Imperialism ($2,500), the #5 ranked Canadian sire in 2018, was a graded stakes winner from 7-8f, in addition to finishing 3rd in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #1,174 overall, with 7 winners from 10 runners, and his 2019 crop currently has 5 runners, of which 2 have won earning a current #896 ranking. None of his 110 sim runners have earned a stakes win yet, though 2 are stakes placed. The runners are primarily sprinters (69% of earnings in sprints, sim AWD of 6.83), with a somewhat surprising edge in turf races (51% of earnings, and 62% of wins, on turf), and his only stakes placed horse over the past 5 years is one of those turf sprinters. Satsuma Clan was a router who won 9 of her 37 career starts, with half coming on dirt and half coming on turf. Her fastest speeds were on dirt in the 8-9f range, but she had some talent on both surfaces. Her prior foals are all multiple winners, but only 1 has more than 1 win at the open allowance level, and the foals have had a mix of sprinting/routing and turf/dirt preferences. Royal Satsuma (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.85) looks like he might have the ability to get the distance today, but it’s a big jump and he might need a race to get acclimated.
Watch Level: Medium
#3 – Home Town City (Lawman (FR) x Gutha Starlet [Raven’s Pass x Awesome Again]) – Owned by applefarms9 – 10/1
Race Record: 3:1-0-1; $39,344
Capsule: Home Town City made his debut on the turf back on June 15. He ran a closing 3rd that day at 4.5f-T, but struggled with the footing when he stretched out to 7.5f-T for his second start. That prompted a shift to the dirt for his most recent race, an 8f MSW in California. There, he went off at 11/1 in a field of 8 and barely even left the gate, sitting well back in last early. But that was no problem on the right surface, and Home Town City came flying in the stretch, making up over 8 lengths and blowing past the others to win by 1-1/4 length, earning a career high 83 SP (a 16 point jump over his turf best). He’ll try to repeat that performance against winners today. Home Town City is the first foal from 4yo mare Gutha Starlet, and is by French sire Lawman. Lawman ($15,000), a multiple G1-winning turf router, was the #45 ranked European sire in 2018. His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #172 overall, with 31 winners from 37 runners, but his 2019 class isn’t doing quite as well, with only 11 winners in 39 runners. The 2018 crop includes an impressive 7 stakes winners, one of whom is a graded stakes winner (a dirt sprinter), and the 2019 crop already has 1 stakes winner. His sim foals have a heavy turf preference (71% of earnings on turf), with a moderate sprinting preference (54% of earnings and 59% of wins in sprints), with a sim AWD of 7.29 that is significantly shorter than his real world 8.62 AWD. Gutha Starlet was a fairly well bred filly, but she didn’t do much running on the track, winning just 1 of her 13 career races. That win came in a 9.5f $25K maiden claimer on the dirt, and her fastest races came in that 8-9f range, but she never really showed much in terms of talent. The Lawman x Raven’s Pass cross has produced one other horse, a winner of 1 race from 8 starts, who has mostly run as a turf sprinter. Home Town City (DI: 2.00, CD: 0.33) has the pedigree to get longer distances, and if his last race is any indication, he should have no problem with today’s race; the question is whether the last race was a turf-to-dirt outlier, or if he’s really this good.
Watch Level: Low
#4 – Kymard Bunny (Tiz Wonderful x Outback Bunny [Mineshaft x Danzig]) – Owned by yozzkym01 – 7/1
Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $47,770
Capsule: Kymard Bunny, the only filly in a field full of colts, debuted in a 6.5f filly MSW back on June 24. In that race, a field of 7, Kymard Bunny dueled for the lead early and briefly had it, but couldn’t outlast one of her competitors and settled for 2nd, ¾ lengths back with a 72 SP. She came back 2 months later in an 8f filly MSW and went wire-to-wire, widening her lead the entire way around the course and cruising to a 2-1/4 length victory, earning another 72 SP. She’ll want to repeat that effort again today as she tackles the boys for the first time. Kymard Bunny is the daughter of Tiz Wonderful, and is the 3rd foal from 6yo mare Outback Bunny. Outback Bunny didn’t spend a lot of time on the track, racing just 6 times and winning once. That win came in her debut at 6f on the dirt, but she never really progressed from that race. Unfortunately, her first two foals haven’t done all that much either; her first foal does have an allowance win in a 4.5f dirt sprint, but her second foal has just his maiden win in a $60K maiden claimer (a 5f dirt sprint). Tiz Wonderful, the #42 ranked South Korean sire in 2018, was a multiple graded stakes winning dirt miler as a 2yo. His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #888 overall, with 10 winners from 14 runners, and his 2019 crop is currently #307 overall, with 4 winners in 12 runners. His sim popularity has waned the past few years, and he has no stakes runners from the last 3 crops, but he had some prior to that. His sim foals are mostly dirt sprinters (68% of earnings on dirt, 60% in sprints, sim AWD of 7.1), and the bulk of his stakes winners have also done so in dirt sprints. For a sire not used all that frequently, it’s a bit surprising to learn that the Tiz Wonderful x Mineshaft cross has been used 7 times in the past 5 years. 5 of those are winners to date, but only 1 has picked up an allowance win, and most of the wins have come on the turf. Kymard Bunny (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.72) might be able to get today’s distance, but she’ll be up against it a bit as she goes up against colts that have already earned wins against other open company.
Watch Level: High
#5 – Who’s Da Boss (Street Boss x Mt. Livermore x The Minstrel) – Owned by vaguy11 – 6/1
Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $45,470
Capsule: Who’s Da Boss wasn’t expected to be much of a runner, and he is the only horse in this field to have made his debut in a $150,000 Maiden Claimer at 4.5f. He broke in the back early and made a big move late, but the race was too short and he finished 2nd. From there, he stretched out to 6f and jumped up to MSW company where he proved he belonged. Again, he sat towards the back of the pack early, but started moving in the far turn and then came roaring late, getting to the leaders just in time and winning by ¾ length, earning an 81 SP. He’ll stretch out again here today as he takes on winners for the first time. Who’s Da Boss is a scratch-bred son of Street Boss, out of a Mt. Livermore mare. Street Boss ($25,000), the #55 ranked US sire in 2019, was a multiple G1-winning sprinter on the track. In the sim, his 2018 sim crop is ranked #218 overall, with 49 winners from 76 runners to date (though his 2019 crop isn’t fairing as well, with only 9 winners from 39 runners thus far). Among the 2018 crop is 3 stakes winners, 2 of whom have found graded stakes success. One of those, Land Boss (the son of Sim Hall of Famer Land Slam), was a G1-winning 2yo sprinter. Street Boss’s sim foals are mostly dirt sprinters (66% of earnings on dirt, 60% in sprints), and his 6.82 sim AWD lines up well with his 6.65 real world AWD. Who’s Da Boss (DI: 3.00, CD: 0.92) might have the pedigree of a sprinter, but if he can maintain his closing speed with the added distance today, he might be growing into a very good horse.
Watch Level: Medium
The BTB has a word count issue (and I write too much), so find Part 2 here.