The End Of An Era: The Breeders Bowl Turf
The temptation in writing about the Grade I, $3,000,000 Breeders Bowl Turf is to become a cheerleader for Horseshoe Bay. There are lots of stars in the field, but just one that you’d recognize with one name: “Horseshoe”.
He’s a future Hall Of Famer, he’s a two-time defending champion of the race, and he’s one-third of a “holy trinity” of one-name turf legends that have been legendary for their intense rivalries: Allied (for Allied Assault), Sunnybank (for Sunnybank Memorial), and Horseshoe. It’s a trio that has largely dominated Sim turf racing for several years. And Horseshoe Bay is the last horse standing, the other two having been ushered to the he-mare clinic to pay their successful genes forward to a new generation. He, too, has a date at the clinic forthcoming; it has been announced earlier this week that would be his final Breeders Bowl start. So, Horseshoe Bay aims for a repeat.
The temptation to root for sentiment, though, is tempered by reality. Horseshoe Bay is not top-ranked anymore; that honor falls, in what seems like a Marvel Comic scenario, to Lex Luthor. Horseshoe Bay is still the second-ranked turf marathon horse in the Sim, and continues to do battle with fresh faces from each successive generation. This year’s “next generation” has yielded a bumper crop in this year’s BB Turf: Rural Law, Max California, and Galactic Bomber are the respective 1-2-3 within the three-year-old turf ranks going long, and each comes into the Turf on a tear all their own. In fact, each of these three colts won a Grade I prep for this in their last start. They don’t need to respect the tradition that Horseshoe Bay has provided in back-to-back Turf wins; they’re looking to stake their own claims.
Even the veterans aren’t simply conceding to history. Lex Luthor didn’t inherit the top spot in the division, but he’s earned his heir-to-the-throne standing with six wins in his last seven starts, including three Grade I victories. Yet this is his first meeting with Horseshoe Bay since last year’s 1-2 finish, Horseshoe winning out, in the Turf. Without some of the other top-ranked veterans one might expect on the scene in this year’s field, though, there’s an opening for a fresh face, whether it comes from one of the three-year-olds or an unheralded older star, such as Ottoman Turks, who had an outstanding spring and looks to return to form after a summer of diminishing returns, and the game Jumpin’ Java, a fresh horse who’s had his moments to shine in the middle of a hard-luck spring season.
There is no Ricks Natural Star here; everyone has earned their rightful place coming into the Breeders Bowl. The morning line suggests the race isn’t terribly wide open, as only five horses are 9-1 or less, but what the BB Turf does not have in a free-for-all atmosphere it makes up for in strong storylines. And for Horseshoe Bay, this race is either a Grimm fairytale ending or a grim reality speaking volumes about how everything is always in transition in Sim racing.
In eight runnings of the Breeders Bowl Turf, no one has run a mile and a half on grass faster than Horseshoe Bay, who owns the stakes record time that was set last year. Here’s a look at previous runnings of the Turf:
2006: Horseshoe Bay – 2:28 1/5* (117 speed figure); stakes-record time
2005: Horseshoe Bay – 2:29 1/5 (110 speed figure); longest-priced winner at 13.90-1
2004: Sunnybank Memorial – 2:28 3/5 (116 speed figure)
2003: Allied Assault – 2:29 2/5 (117 speed figure)
2002: Project Thor – 2:29 (120 speed figure*); stakes-record speed figure
2001: Joe Cayenne – 2:29 3/5 (115 speed figure); stakes-record margin of victory at 6.75 lengths
2000: Dusty Dance – 2:30 3/5 (109 speed figure)
1999: Writer Orange – 2:31 2/5 (103 speed figure)
And finally, here’s the lowdown on the breakdown of the Breeders Bowl Turf.
Simulation King(IRE) [Desert King x With Approval, trained by champions4 for Wanted: More Injuries, Please…..Sir] (17-1)
This four-year-old started off strong, winning six of his first eight career races entering the spring. He hit his stride this summer, with a pair of graded wins at this distance, in which he beat the likes of Director, fourth-ranked Total Chaos (absent from this field) and veteran millionaire Hey Zeus (also missing here). Winning both the Grade I Lot Of Luck and the Grade II Longstickgoboom boosted his stock within the division, and also looked quite impressive; both races featured this colt closing a sixteen-length gap to win driving by a combined almost-seven lengths. He’s a deep threat who will appreciate a contentious pace. Still, for the professional performances he delivered in summer, his recent form has been ghastly. Following a shift to a different section of of his connections’ outfit, moving from legends2 to champions4, his last two outings have been different shades of miserable. Two back, in his debut for his “new” barn in the Horseshoe Falls, he only managed a seventh in which he was rated too far back in the field, and closed from twenty lengths out to only be beaten by ten. In the Classic Turf last time, he was soundly defeated in a weirdly-run race; winner Another Tenpin Tap sat just off Dancin In Seattle and took over without being challenged until the last furlong by fellow stalking type Expected Yield. Simulation King got a poor ride, retreating to the rear and just stalling without making even a token run. He’s battling history, as the Classic Turf generally does not produce a next-out BB Turf winner, and while the last was so flat that it needs to have a line drawn through it, he needs to have his form return to his summer races. As for this race, he needs his speed figures to leap up from his last-out 79 to the mid-110s just to contend with what historically wins the Turf. His jockey is strong in Europe and ships in for the ride, which should be light years better than the one he got in the Classic Turf, but at fourteen starts he’s got plenty of time to hit peak form against a division currently reaching a state of flux. Expect him to sit somewhere about fifteen lengths off the pace before trying to unleash a strong late run, but as for the expected result a minor share is all that appears likely. His connections have a stronger contender in the field with Ottoman Turks, but next year, the odds are good that Simulation King could regain his early form within the division.
Dancin In Seattle [Danzig-Senor Sea, by Seattle Slew, trained by eliza for MV4ever Stables] (19-1)
This six-year-old veteran has been hard at it for four seasons now, and neither Vivaldi nor Alan Alda could compose a harder horse to send to a championship day of racing. He’s no stranger to Grade I affairs, with four Grade I wins over thirty-nine starts. This year, though, this millionaire has met his match: time. Though he captured the Grade I U Want A Piece Of Me in June over soft turf, and was third last out in the Classic Turf, he’s begun to lose ground to the younger set. Three-year-old Galactic Bomber got him two races back in the Man Of War, after this one set a solid pace. The lighter-raced five-year-old Mine D’Inverne passed this one’s stalking trip back in April, and Simulation King passed him by in the Lots Of Luck. Still, this weathered veteran has shown he still has magic, thanks in part to the weather: his two wins this year both came on wire jobs over wet turf. The turf condition here, though, calls for no rain, so he can’t expect help from nature. It is, however, within his nature to go to the lead, something which he can be counted on here to do forthrightly. He won’t be alone there, but he has gotten loose out front before which has played successfully into his hands. His speed figures don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence; if the trends hold and a number over 110 is called on to win this race, the last 110+ speed figure…well, it hasn’t happened yet, and at start #40, it’s going to take a brave and daring ride from a capable local jockey to propel him towards that goal. History is rather against him, too: no speed horse has ever wired the field in the Turf, and the last “stalker” to win was Project Thor, who sat second for almost a mile before taking the lead for good in 2002. (Joe Cayenne was closer to the lead, but had been fourth at the first call, in his win.) His Classic Turf was respectable, a faded third, and he has the always-respectable back class, but with just three speed figures over 100 in 2007, there’s just not enough new evidence to suggest that the toughest field he’s faced since last fall’s Ark De Triumph is ripe for defeat based on his recent form.
Meetball [Diesis-Butchery, by A.P. Indy, trained by honeyj for Bob123g Stables] (11-1)
He’s been one busy Meetball, to be sure, with thirteen starts this year and forty-seven career races overall. And this very late-blooming horse is finally making the most of his opportunities. That’s not to say he’s slacked in his career; far from it. He just came from humble beginnings, spending his three-year-old campaign running through his allowance conditions, before tackling listed stakes last year at 4. His trainer’s approach has been even-handed and methodical, with six stakes wins in fifteen listed stakes attempts between January of ’05 and March of this year. It paid off, too: when he was elevated into graded races, he performed respectably, even as his only graded win to date has been the Grade III Winchester Park Cup three back, in September. His trainer has done everything just right getting this journeyman to this point. That being said, this is a Grade I mile-and-a-half classic test. He has only one win in seven starts at the distance, and hasn’t won going a mile and a half since August 2006. In his only graded win three back, the only opponent there that he finds here is Ottoman Turks, which doesn’t say a lot for who he’s beaten lately at this highest racing level. While that Grade III victory got him a career-best 111 and a BB Turf start, there’s a lot of consistency here (and a bunch of millionaires) that have not just achieved more, they’ve achieved more, and better, more recently. Most recently he was sixth in the Kentucky Cup Turf and seventh in a listed stakes in Tennessee just two weeks ago. His trainer has done everything right for a few years with this wily vet, but the last horse to win the turf using a listed stakes as his final prep race was Dusty Dance in 2000, who at least won his final prep by nine lengths. A listed final prep for a Grade I test is a lot to ask of a horse who’s raced forty-seven times in his life. He should contribute to early pace pressure here, sitting likely just off the front end, and the distance isn’t that big of a deal; getting the necessary high-end speed figure could be more of one. This horse’s story is a good one about patience and perseverance, but in this race, a happy ending doesn’t appear imminent.
Max California [Rock Hard Ten x Secretariat, trained by buffy5 for Winterfell Racing] (18-1)
Surprisingly, this three-year-old colt is one of the longest shots in the Turf field, and it comes across as being rather unjust if understandable. He’s only making his fifteenth career start here, and just won his first graded race last time out. But it’s that win that gives him more cachet and allure as he faces some top marathon specialists here. He was the second longest shot on the board in the Grade I Coalminer Cup three weeks ago, when he circled the field and rallied from nine lengths back to just nose out Ottoman Turks on the line. His trainer is bullish on the chances of what is pointed out as “the first Rock Hard Ten in the Sim, week one, of year one”, but still humble enough to allow that, “Honestly, It’s a bit surreal having him in this race against SIM giants like Lex Luthor and Horseshoe Bay.” The 113 he earned seemed to take most people by surprise, but “I don’t know if he can replicate that 113 he ran.” He achieved the sparkling speed figure turning back from a fourteen-furlong stakes race to the mile and a half of the Coalminer, and with an all-time high and his first 100+ figure both coming in one fell swoop, a bounce is a realistic possibility. He’s a closer, and won three of his last four coming from off the pace, but this field is a little tougher than that Coalminer Cup. He’s riding with history at the same time he’s competing against it: Horseshoe Bay (2005), Project Thor and Joe Cayenne all won the Turf coming out of the Coalminer Cup as a final prep race, but only Joe Cayenne has pulled off the Coalminer/Turf double, back in 2001. He’s a late bloomer as both three-year-old turf star and marathon specialist, but has a much tougher task here. There’s guarded optimism on his future, but he’ll need to show a little more against older horses here. But for someone who never expected to breed a BB starter, much less a grass specialist—“I thought Secretariat would be a nice cross with (RHT) but I didn’t expect a turf runner”—his trainer has found a great way to hit the big time. His jock ships from South Africa for the mount, which hints that the connections may know something we do not; watch him late, and consider him for a share of the purse.
Lex Luthor [Empire Maker x Theatrical(IRE), trained by galileo for Galileo Stables] (6-1)
Lex is ready to become a one-name star, like Horseshoe. With fifteen wins in twenty-five starts, the case can be made that he’s already arrived, but with Horseshoe’s BB swan song, the torch seeks to be officially passed here. He comes in on the hottest tear of the entire field, winning five of his last six, including a gate-to-wire masterpiece in the Grade I Ark De Triumph last time out. That prep was marvelous to see, as he opened up by more than eleven lengths with a half-mile left and was geared down under the wire. There was only a field of eight, but they were scared away by the missing Rapid Grey, not Lex Luthor. If there’s a slight shadow cast, it’s that no one running in the Ark has come back here, and so he’s not as tested against the likes of his super nemesis Horseshoe Bay. Speaking of that, curiously this will mark the first battle between Lex and Horseshoe since last year’s 1-2 finish. And as good as Lexis, and as good as many of his opponents this year have been, he hasn’t faced many of the horses in this field this year. In fact, the only member of this field he actually faced in 2007 is Jumpin’ Java, who beat him in the Grade I King Geoff and Queen Beth’s Emerald Stakes in July. He’s faced some fine specialists in 2007, such as Sunnybank Memorial, Good To Be King, Cache and Rapid Grey, just to name a few, but by picking a path not taken by the other heavyweights, particularly Horseshoe Bay, it raises some questions as to whether such a path is worthwhile. He’s certainly fit,though, and winning five of his last six is an exclamation point that only Max California can match. He needs to avoid a repeat of last year’s Turf, though, where he opened up a huge lead with six furlongs left and still got picked off by Horseshoe Bay in the stretch. He looks like the main and best speed in the field, and his speed figures are quite solid throughout the season, averaging about a 106 in five races at this precise distance. History shows, however, that he’ll need just a little more than that if he hopes to prevent last year from repeating itself—the average speed figure in the turf is a 113, something he matched last year but a level he hasn’t equaled since. Now, unlike reality, the Ark/BB Turf double can be achieved, but the last, and only, one to do just that was the defending champ Horseshoe Bay. It’s a tall shadow to escape, and his time is now if he hopes to make a definitive statement in advance of 2008.
Horseshoe Bay [Red Ransom x Woodman, trained by fatattack for Lone Star Racing] (9/2)
This ain’t no love song for a horseshoe. Horseshoe Bay is a two-time defending BB Turf winner, but he isn’t coming into this race the same way he threw it down against the Allied and Sunnybanks of the world the last couple of years. Last year he rocked the Ark/Turf double as mentioned earlier, and two years ago he turned a misstep in the Coalminers Cup into a breathtaking rally in the final furlongs. This year, he could not get going in his last prep, a listed Epsom stakes that featured some loose speed that carried through eleven furlongs virtually uncontested. He closed enough to get fifth, but even so, a down Horseshoe Bay is still better than most horses can imagine. He’s entering his final BB race with a light schedule behind him, and his California-based jockey, F(rankie) Gossett, was made available for a rare interview this week by Horseshoe’s trainer. Gossett’s quiet confidence and easygoing manner is something he shares with the star horse he rides. “Horseshoe is an easy horse to ride….we’ll just slip over to the rail after the break. There should be plenty of pace to run at and I’ll just bide by time near the back out of harm’s way. Horseshoe is so push-button and he’ll give you one long sustained run when asked.” Gossett knows his horse well, and that’s proven by four wins and two seconds in just six mounts they shared. The late run is his trademark, and he’ll need every inch of ground he can save against a lot of speed with Lex Luthor and a few of his henchmen. There’s hope and class still coursing within, though; the 115 he earned two back is still the best recent speed figure in the field, he’s had a month off with just eight starts on the year, and even with the clunker at Epsom, odds are that was a tactical tool by his trainer rather than a fatal flaw showing that the reigning emperor has no clothes. Still, he needs a little magic to get some overall flagging numbers back into a more consistent form. This year, the champ is unpredictable, and there are no free passes simply because a first-ballot Hall Of Fame shoo-in is nearing the finish line; if he’s going to defend his crown, this is where he makes his last, best stand.
Director [Empire Maker x Theatrical(IRE), trained by snappa4 for Snappa Racing Syndicate] (12-1)
If there’s a horse here who may have a shot at trying to duel Lex Luthor…well, he may be a bit suicidal. But if someone keeps the pressure on just a little bit, it’ll be this colt making his nineteenth start. He likes the lead as well, but he’s not overpowering on the front end; his leading margins in his past performances typically aren’t a lot more than four or five lengths (although he can open it up considerably; witness that double-digit margin with about three-and-a-half furlongs left two back in the Iago’s Bred To Stay going a mile and three-quarters, and forget that he came within a head-bob on the wire from going down in flames). Expect him to stay pretty close, but the jury is out on hanging tough. This year, with three graded wins, the colt has pushed through to a higher competition level, with a Grade I and a pair of Grade II wins. The two preps leading to this were both marathons that went much longer than this race’s distance of twelve furlongs. The results reflect this, with that nose win and a two-mile race where they spit the bit in the final half-mile, coupled with speed figures that are quite fair. The only horse to win the BB Turf turning back in distance from a longer race was Dusty Dance, who in 2000 turned back from sixteen to twelve furlongs effectively. I believe the return to a shorter marathon works in his favor, and should give him an added level of fitness. The speed figures fit decently with a Grade I at this distance, but fall short of what historically has been needed to take this race. He’s coming into the race from an unusual place of strength, and turning back might just give him the boost he needs. He’s an intriguing long shot.
Mine D’Inverne [Mineshaft-Queen Of Dubai, by Dubai Millennium(GB), trained by umea for Umea Stables] (13-1)
It’s not often a BB Turf candidate comes in with dirt preps that are quite decent. This horse had a couple of fair tune-ups on dirt before rallying for third in a restricted Grade I World Cup marathon back on grass. The dirt races produced some decent numbers, and from a fitness standpoint might work in his favor a little bit, in that now he’s back on a surface he clearly prefers. Those speed figures, though, are middling compared to others here, even if they are dirt numbers. He’s got three stakes wins routing on grass, including the Grade I Big Turf Race in April, where he beat Sunnybank Memorial, Rain God and Dancin In Seattle, among others. His speed figures overall, though, do lack firepower. There’s nothing higher than a 104 in his career, and that one was earned in a losing effort in the Grade I Simply The Best. Not only this race’s history, but just racing in a higher echelon within the division, requires more consistent numbers, and ones that approach the 110s. Nevertheless, his trainer is new to the big racing stage, and enthusiastic about his big coming-out party: “This race will be the toughest in his career and maybe is the distance a couple of furlongs too short. But we are hoping for someone (maybe Lex Luthor) to put up an early pace on the race.” That’s a good hope to have, and indeed his best races are ones in which he closes with a flourish. A lively pace is ordained, but his closing kick is going to need a little bit of help for the best possible effort. The only horse to have a prep race on dirt only a couple of starts removed from the Turf was the first winner, 1999’s Writer Orange, so there’s history to contend with.
Ottoman Turks [Empire Maker x Sadler’s Wells, trained by stoners for Wanted: More Injuries, Please…..Sir] (7-1)
Stoners can be a polarizing figure to some, but say what you want about him: he comes with many different kinds of tricks in his arsenal of horses, and they always bring their “A” game. This is the stronger half of his uncoupled entry in the Turf, and one of the lightest-raced in the field at fourteen career starts. He’s peaking at just about the right time, with a tantalizingly close near-miss last time out in the Coalminer Cup, where he led most of the second half of the race with the exception of the final couple of strides, picked off by a rallying Max California. The 113 is a career-best, but it’s not new territory for this four-year-old, as he also earned a 109 in April’s Grade I San Francsico Capitan, his first of two consecutive graded wins in the spring. There’s power in his early turn of foot, and one should expect him close to the lead, if not challenging Lex Luthor outright. The horse is being brought along at the most opportune time, and showed last out in the Coalminer that he can win on the lead, but he’s a strong hand a rating just off a hot pace. If there’s a flaw, it’s in some recent inconsistent hiccups, such as the Judgemont three back, where he never got the tactics he likes to work for him, and let another horse get away with a big early lead. The mile and a half he returns to here certainly appeals to him, and he has beaten Horseshoe Bay previously, if that was a consideration. He has the goods and is a relatively forgotten entity in the other storylines of Luthor, Horseshoe and the three-year-olds. If he goes toe-to-toe with Lex Luthor, which is quite possible, sparks will begin to fly.
Rural Law [Law Society(IRE) x Take Risks(FR), trained by vettori for Son Carby Lodge] (10-1)
The trainer makes no bones about his understanding of the Law: “I expect my colt to win this week.” Fortunately, he’s got the horse to back him up. This three-year-old has proven to be a tough customer this year. He’s won two of his last three, both Grade I’s, including a restricted World Cup marathon win. That WC field had a couple of members of this field, but top to bottom it wasn’t quite as deep as other preps for the turf. Yet it yielded a strong 111 speed figure, and he comes in well-rested, with a four-week break in between then and now. From his trainer: “He beat the older horses last time out in very good style and I believe there is only two horses in the field that can beat him, Horseshoe Bay and Lex Luther.” Not lacking in faith, he adds that “I’m hoping they are past their best and my horse is ready to take the throne. I am very, very confident going into this; he is coming good at the right time.” The veterans have been riding high for a long time, though making a case for Luthor being past his peak is rather silly at present. And his colt has the goods: the late kick in the WC race was Horseshoe Bay-esque, between the 111 speed figure and the near-thirteen-length deficit to overcome in driving fashion. The three-time Grade I winner has won three of four tries at a mile and a half, has a fine running style and is hitting his own stride at the right time, which means serious business in a field top-heavy with talent. If there’s an Achilles heel, it might be his youth, but recent history in the Turf is on his side: three of the last four BB Turfs have been won by three-year-olds: Horseshoe in 2005, Sunnybank Memorial in 2004, and Allied Assault in 2003. He’s the best three-year-old on grass this year, ranked number-one, and poses a great challenge to the elder statesmen for a breakthrough performance.
Galactic Bomber [Orientate-Solar Storm(IRE), by Theatrical(IRE), trained by focusforce for nextbonus] (14-1)
He’s the unheralded member of the three-year-old trio, the one no one’s been buzzing about. But he’s a threat, because of the way he rolled to victory in his first Grade I win last time out, the Man Of War. The field lacked some spice that day, but he still rallied from a ten-length deficit to win going away, and he received a speed figure of 111 for his efforts. Another great angle is that he’s the singularly freshest horse, having taken a seven-week break off of this win. Rust never sleeps, but rust rarely wins this race; the longest layoff to win this race was four weeks, by Horseshoe last year, Sunnybank in 2005, and Allied in 2004. (By contrast, Writer Orange won this race after finishing fifth in a Grade II the week before in 1999.) The Man Of War was a strong prep, but it raises the question of how truly battle-ready he is. The Man Of War featured only one older horse from this field, and while he’s knocked heads with the rest of the three-year-old crop, like Rural Law, he hasn’t beaten the best yet on a big stage, and this could be a problem because the other three-year-olds are very talented, and he has yet to get the best of the tops in that division, never mind the older horses. The 111 is by far his best speed figure, but earned against a weaker bunch of horses could mean a bounce downwards this time. The late run is always a threat, and there’s a lot of pace to chase, plus one of the European Harzheims gets the mount here, so there’s quite a bit to like, including the rest. But the lengthy, reasoned break is a double-edged sword, and this is for him the deep end of the pool that he needs to conquer.
Cortez [High Chaparral(IRE) x Conquistador Cielo, trained by slipknot22 for tequilas Mockingbird] (8-1)
His trainer is candid about his chances. “We’re trying to prove that Cortez is not a has-been at age 4. Unfortunately, the top all-time money winning son of High Chaparral has had a mediocre (for him) campaign this year. But if he can run his best race (like the 110 he put up three races back in the G2 Dawn to Dusk Cup), he can run down the best in this race.” Indeed, the Dawn To Dusk was an excellent race for him, in which he sat in mid-pack and began to move with about six furlongs left. he won with authority, but yet hasn’t been able to repeat since in spite of facing generally softer opposition. His closing kick had little impact in each of those two starts, and his speed figures went back down to the low 100s. Third here in this field last year, he needs to pick things up where they left off after a marvelous three-year-old season. Still, there’s the element of back class. “Of the four horses in this BB Turf race that he’s previously faced in G1 races (Lex Luthor, Horseshoe Bay, Jumpin’ Java, and Love Boat Captain), Cortez has beaten them all at least once, except for Horseshoe Bay. He’s also beaten future Hall of Famer Sunnybank Memorial twice,” says his trainer. Right he is, but the last win over any of those contenders was the 2006 Classic Turf. Turning back from the recent fourteen-furlong marathon was a good first step, from which an improved performance second time out should develop. Pace should play a role, if all goes to expectations: “Lex Luthor has been able to wire Cortez (and everybody else for that matter) most times out. But if someone goes out and contests the speed and makes him work harder than he likes, we have the perfect style to pull the upset.”
Jumpin’ Java [Java Gold x Seeking The Gold, trained by waradmiral for Kiddman Stables] (7-1)
Jumpin’ Java, according to his trainer, is sharp for this, his second race off a two-month layoff prior to the World Cup. He needed the World Cup, where a lackluster performance was credited to not being fully prepared for action: “He’s always come up sharp when I wanted him to, until the World Cup. I had to go with an awkward 8-week gap before the race, and he went off Ready To Go and ran flat, finishing up the track. Still, things are better now. The more normal 5-week space before the BB Turf got him to Sharp, and he’s ready to take on the best.” He’s had two Grade I wins this year, both in big races. He upset Sunnybank Memorial in March’s John Scott Appreciation, taking advantage of a perfect stalking trip to win with something left and a 103 figure. This summer, in the King Geoff and Queen Beth’s Emerald Stakes, he closed well after Lex Luthor’s early lead vanished, and picked up a 109 speed figure for the win. No horse has ever won the Turf in their second race following a long layoff of more than six weeks, but the angle is usually a good one in which to see a rested horse come to life. His speed is tactical by nature, and he might be expected to sit off the leaders and hope that there’s a duel up front to burn out the fastest of the fast. The speed figures have come to life at times in 2007, but he’ll need to push over 110 for a good shot at the win. Regardless, his trainer is optimistic about his future. “All I can say is I wish I’d figured out Jumpin’ Java was best at Long Turf a little quicker. I probably ‘wasted’ ten or more races running him in the wrong places.”
Love Boat Captain(IRE) [Century City(IRE) x Prove Out, trained by shamran3 for Shamran Stables] (22-1)
Soon, dare I say, he’ll be making another run. But that run comes from the far outside post. While it’s not lethal—Horseshoe Bay won in 2005 from the thirteen hole—it is compromising, to say the least. What hurts him is that he likes to go to the front of any field. He’ll need an expert trip courtesy of the veteran of Kentucky who gets the mount here, and that means that he may have to sacrifice some speed to save for a late run from a disadvantageous position (if, indeed, you believe such things). He’s the rare critter who earned a spot in the field without winning a graded race in his career. This four-year-old has won listed events from eleven to sixteen furlongs, but did supply pace pressure when a tiring third last out in the restricted Grade I World Cup marathon behind Rural Law. That’s the type of trip he’ll need on his best day to add to the speed that will chase both Lex Luthor and, to an extent, maybe Director. The World Cup placing got him a career-high 104 figure, but he needs another significant bump northward to truly contend against the other twelve-furlong specialists. Again, history is no help: there has not been a BB Turf winner who had to set a career-best twice in a row to win this race; Project Thor did earn his career-best figure of 120 in his 2002 victory, but had surpassed his previous race’s 101 numerous times before. He should run a good race, this being both his second race off turning back in distance from fourteen furlongs and his second race off of a wet-turf start. But there’s a certain threshold most winners of this race usually need to meet, and in start twenty-six, time’s running short for him to hit that threshold in this $3,000,000 race.
My selections, after long and thoughtful deliberation:
1. Rural Law
2. Ottoman Turks
3. Horseshoe Bay
4. Lex Luthor
5. Max California
Good luck to all contenders, and here’s to hoping this race is one for the ages.