Future Stars Series – 7 Colts Tackle The New York Turf
First, a quick recap of last week’s race. Crying Allure got out to set the early pace, but she was quickly challenged by Marylebone and those two would battle for the lead. It didn’t take long before Marylebone stuck her neck in front. From there, there was nothing anyone could do. Marylebone ($11.20) opened up a 1-1/2 length lead and was never really threatened, winning by 1-1/4 lengths an earning an 80 SP. Primetime Kameha, who had stalked the early pace, stayed pretty consistent throughout the race and was a well clear 2nd, with a 78 SP. Lingering Drama and Lope Cartoon both came running from the back, with Lingering Drama getting first run and just narrowly edging out Lope Cartoon, 3-1/2 and 3-3/4 lengths behind the winner, respectively.
—
This week, the Future Stars Series is finally going to check out the colts! (Though that’s only because I was tired of handling only 2yo fillies…The top 2 races this week, as noted below, are once again races for Fillies). The Future Stars Series heads to New York, where 7 colts try their luck in a NW3L Allowance at 7 furlongs on the turf. The field is:
#1 – Tuns O’ Kittens (Kitten’s Joy x Tuns O’ Fun [Distorted Humor x Storm Cat]) – Owned by dragonrider8 – 5/2 (f)
Race Record: 4:2-2-0; $87,290
Capsule: Tuns O’ Kittens, the sponsor of this race, has been very consistent in his 4 previous races, running first or second in each of those. After breaking his maiden in his debut on February 14 in a 6f dirt MSW, he proceeded to run 2nd in back-to-back NW2L allowances on the dirt at 6-6.5f, showing a slight SP improvement each time. Tuns O’ Kittens comes into this race off of his best effort yet, as a switch to turf back on May 26 saw him duel for the lead early and explode late, taking the 6.5f-T NW2L allowance by 2-1/2 lengths with a 76 SP. Tuns O’ Kittens is by Kitten’s Joy, and is the 5th foal out of G3-winning mare Tuns O’ Fun. Tuns O’ Fun won 7 of her 25 races, all in dirt routes-long races, and although she proved to be a good longer distance runner (with 3 stakes wins at 10-12f), her coup de grace was in her second career race, where she took The Adam’s Apple-G3 at 8f on the dirt. Her first two foals were both very successful runners, as both were two-time stakes winners in dirt routes, though her two more recent foals both retired without a win. Kitten’s Joy ($75,000) was the #1 ranked US sire in 2018 and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks #46 overall. That crop includes 74 winners from 146 runners, and although there are 6 stakes winners among them (mostly in turf routes), none have won graded stakes yet. In general, Kitten’s Joy foals are turf routers, with 75% of earnings on turf and 72% in routes, which is probably in line with his 7.82 real world AWD (given the number of his foals that run in the US) and does line up with his 8.69 sim AWD. Kitten’s Joy has been bred to a Distorted Humor mare 17 times over the past 5 years, with 5 of those earning stakes victories (and 1 3-time Graded Stakes winner), all in turf routes, which seems to be the ideal type of race for this bloodline. Tuns O’ Kittens (DI: 2.69; CD: 0.75) is looking to buck the trend of his dam’s family, but conforming to his sire-led bloodlines, by taking to the turf, but it certainly looks like he has potential to succeed here today.
Watch Level: High
#2 – Broadworld (Ruler of the World x Kodi [Kodiac (GB) x Broad Brush]) – Owned by lightng115 – 3/1
Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $18,860
Capsule: Broadworld took the sim world by storm in his debut on April 14, going off as the 3/1 favorite in a field of 11 for a 6.5f-T MSW and he proved the oddsmakers right, breaking towards the back of the pack early but coming on late, grabbing the lead early in the stretch and pulling away to win by 1 length. That win earned him a 76 SP, and so he made the jump to stakes company and acquitted himself very nicely. Against more experienced 2yos, he again closed from towards the back and gained on the leaders, but came up 2-1/4 lengths short, finishing 5th with a 75 SP. Broadworld is by Ruler of the World, and is the 3rd foal out of 6yo mare Kodi. Ruler of the World ($10,000) was a G1-winning turf router currently standing in Ireland. In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #217 overall, with 47 winners from 105 runners. One of those winners is a multiple stakes winner as a turf sprinter (who is also G3-placed at 9f-T). Ruler of the World’s sim foals have a strong preference for turf (73% of earnings on turf) but only have a slight routing preference (56% of earnings on turf, 8.29 sim AWD). Ruler of the World has 4 sim winners from 5 runners with Kodiac as the DS, mostly as sprinters (2 on turf, 1 on dirt). Kodi was not much of a runner on the track, as she spent much of her career at the claiming level, and her 3 career wins (from 16 races) all came in turf sprints. Her first two foals haven’t been much on the track either, with a combined 2 wins in 27 races. Broadworld (DI: 0.88; CD: 0.00) looks to buck that trend here, and he is well positioned to do it.
Watch Level: High
#3 – Fastnet Quality (Fastnet Rock (AUS) x Elusive Quality x Redoute’s Choice) – Owned by massanewbreed – 7/1
Race Record: 5:2-1-0; $55,490
Capsule: Fastnet Quality is the most experienced horse in the race, with 5 career races already under his belt. He broke his maiden at 5.5f on the turf in race #2, back on February 23, where he broke in the back early but came flying late, earning a 65 SP. He moved up to stakes company in his next 2 races, running similarly to the maiden score and just missing a stakes placing in his second try, at 5.5f-T, finishing 4th. Fastnet Quality comes into this race off of a win in a NW1x allowance, where he went off as the 4/5 favorite in a 5.5f-T race and easily took the lead in the stretch, winning by 1 length with a career high 69 SP. Fastnet Quality is a scratch-bred colt from Fastnet Rock, out of an Elusive Quality mare. Fastnet Rock ($70,000), the #11 EU sire and #3 Australian sire in 2018, was the champion Australian sprinter in 2005 but in the sim, his horses seem to prefer slightly longer races (60% of earnings in routes), which is in line with his real world 8.65 AWD (8.03 AWD in the sim). His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #31 overall, with 99 winners from 134 runners, including 3 turf route graded stakes winners (2 at 8f-T, 1 at 10f-T). Overall, Fastnet Rock’s sim foals have an unsurprisingly strong turf preference (80% of earnings on turf). The Fastnet Rock x Elusive Quality cross has been very successful in the sim over the past 5 years, as 2 of the 5 horses with those bloodlines have won stakes races, both in longer turf races (one in turf routes, one in long distance turf races). Fastnet Quality (DI: 2.64; CD: 0.65) is a closer and that would seem to suggest a desire to run longer, but his best races thus far have been at 5.5f-T so we’ll see if he can prove that stretching out will help here.
Watch Level: Medium
#4 – No Free Meals (Congaree x Shin Splint [Danehill Dancer x Deep Impact]) – Owned by mschweitzer74 – 7/1
Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $30,360
Capsule: No Free Meals, the least experienced horse in the field, made his debut on June 1 in a 5.5f turf Local Texas MSW. Taking on a field of 4 as the 3/5 favorite, No Free Meals broke last early, but got moving late and pulled away to win by 1-3/4 lengths, earning a 65 SP. No Free Meals is the only foal from 7yo he-mare Shin Splint, who was sent to Congaree for this breeding. Shin Splint won 6 of his 33 career races, all at the allowance level and all in turf routes, and throughout his career he showed an almost endless supply of stamina, winning everywhere from 8.25-15f, all on the turf. Congaree ($3,000), the #3 ranked Texas sire in 2018, was a multiple G1 winner at 8-9f (including 3rd place finishes in the 2001 Kentucky Derby and Preakness). His 2018 sim crop is relatively small, with only 15 runners, 8 of whom have won, ranking #1,060 overall. In his sim stud career, he has only had 1 graded stakes winner, and has had no stakes winners in the past 5 years. His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 64% of earnings on dirt and 60% in sprints, with a 6.69 sim AWD and a 6.74 real world AWD. No Free Meals (DI: 3.00; CD: 0.92) is bred to sprint, and although his debut speed figure is a little below the best in the field here, it was a 4 horse local MSW that he dominated and there’s every possibility that he’ll make a leap here.
Watch Level: Medium
#5 – Creed of Hefin (Jimmy Creed x Hefin [Pioneerof the Nile x Malibu Moon]) – Owned by zanthulus – 9/2
Race Record: 3:1-1-0; $35,755
Capsule: Creed of Hefin struggled in his debut at 6f on the good turf on March 9, tiring to finish 6th, but he bounced back in a big way in race #2 when he finally caught a firm turf. In that 6.5f-T MSW, Creed of Hefin set the pace and never looked back, opening up by 2 lengths and hanging on to win by ½ length, earning a 74 SP (2nd, 3rd, and 6th in that race each came back to break their maidens next time out). His most recent race saw him duel for the lead early and briefly take it, before being outrun to the wire and finishing 2nd. Creed of Hefin is the son of Jimmy Creed, and is the first foal from 6yo mare Hefin. Jimmy Creed ($20,000), a G1-winning dirt sprinter, was the #99 ranked US sire (and #5 ranked second crop sire) in 2018. His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #309 overall, with 23 of 33 runners having won thus far, with 2 of those being victorious in stakes races (both on dirt, with one in sprints, one in routes). Much like him as a runner, Jimmy Creed’s sim foals are largely dirt sprinters, with 70% of earnings on dirt and 79% in sprints, lining up with his 6.64 real life AWD and 6.39 sim AWD. Hefin was a winner of 6 of her 39 career races, mostly coming in turf routes in the 9-10f range, which is where she spent the bulk of her career. Pioneerof The Nile mares have been sent to Jimmy Creed 5 times over the past 5 years, but thus far only 1 of those have won an allowance race. Creed of Hefin (DI: 4.33; CD: 0.88) looks to become #2 here, as he is well suited for this turf sprint and has the consistent improvement in his past to put his best hoof forward today.
Watch Level: Medium
#6 – Awesomeizer (Optimizer x Fawsome [Awesome Again x Giant’s Causeway]) – Owned by Parramatta – 4/1
Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $57,670
Capsule: Awesomizer began his career back on January 30 with a very strong 1-1/4 length victory in a 5f turf MSW in Queensland, where he sat up with the pacesetters early and pulled away late, earning a 70 SP. After flying across the globe to NY and finishing 3rd next time out (trailing only 2 horses that are both stakes placed), he stretched out to 6f-T for his 3rd race and took a big step forward, sitting just off the early pace and then assuming it late, winning by ½ length with a field-high 79 SP. The 2nd place horse in that race (the pacesetter) came back to run 2nd next time out in a G3 at 5f-T. Awesomizer is by Optimizer, and is the 11th foal out of 16yo mare Fawsome. Optimizer ($5,000), a multiple graded stakes winning turf router (and multiple graded stakes placed dirt router) entered stud in 2017 so his real foals have not yet reached the track. Optimizer’s 2018 sim crop currently ranks #540 overall, with 22 winners from 46 runners. None of his foals have won a stakes race yet in the sim, but based on his real life preferences, it’s possible the horses will get better as they start to run longer races. For now, his sim foals have preferred turf sprints (67% of earnings on turf, 73% in sprints), with a 6.31 sim AWD. Fawsome never did much on the track in her 33 race career, winning only twice, both in turf sprints. Her foals, however, have faired better, with most having multiple allowance wins (primarily on the turf) and one, Awesomahler (Mahler (GB)), a stakes winner (and G2-placed) at 10f on the turf. Awesomizer (DI: 2.33; CD: 0.53) will try to follow that one’s lead as he stretches out to 7f-T here hopefully on his way to bigger and better things.
Watch Level: High
#7 – A Kings Invasion (Invader (AUS) x Ameha Akna [King Kamehameha x High Chaparral (IRE)]) – Owned by summerset26 – 7/1
Race Record: 3:2-0-1; $34,150
Capsule: A Kings Invasion debuted at 4.5f in a Hot turf MSW on January 17 as the even money second choice, but he showed that he was no second choice when he sat 3rd early and then moved late, winning by 1 length. To prove that the win was no fluke, he came back to go 2-for-2 next time out in a stalking style in a 6f turf NW2L allowance. A Kings Invasion enters this race off of a career best 73 SP, when he stalked the pace early in a 6.5f-T NW3L and finished 3rd, 2-1/2 lengths behind the winner (who came back to run 2nd in an allowance on the dirt next time out). A Kings Invasion is the 5th foal from 8yo mare Ameha Akna, who was sent to Invader (AUS). Amena Akna was a turf router who won 2 of her 15 career races, both at 9.5f on the turf and made two failed attempts in graded stakes. Her foals have also largely been turf runners, though her best has been more of a sprinter than anything else. Invader, a G1-winning sprinter in Australia and son of Snitzel, entered stud in 2018 so we don’t have much real world data yet. In the sim, he wasn’t that popular last year, with only 2 runners from the 2018 class currently ranking #3,002 overall (one of those 2 is a winner). Only 3 of his 10 foals in the sim thus far have won a race, and A Kings Invasion is the only multiple winner in the group. A Kings Invasion (DI: 0.60; CD: -0.13) may have the bloodlines for this distance and has been improving in each of his 3 races to date, so he’ll look to take another step forward here.
Watch Level: Medium
—
That’s the field for this 7 horse allowance, and overall, the field looks pretty evenly matched. My completely meaningless predictions? I’m going with (1) Awesomizer; (2) Tuns O’ Kittens; (3) Creed of Hefin. Good luck to the runners!
Other Races to Watch This Weekend:
1) Spain – Alw NW3L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)
2) California – Alw NW2L @ 7f (Fillies)