Spotlight Race of the Day: Allowance Paris 6/28
An allowance race for horses age four and older attracted 8 runners in Paris. The distance is 8.5 furlongs on the dirt track and has an eligibility requirement of not winning two races over the past 6-months. This basically equates to winning one or less races during 2019. Only the boys have entered the race as the gals have opted to sit on the sidelines and watch the boys do what they do best…showoff! Here’s the field of showoffs:
1 HIPPO ROCK 5/1-Flipped to the turf in his last start and going 6 furlongs, the shortest distance for him over the past year. The change worked as he earned a win and drew away by a length and a half. Back to dirt for this race and just a tad over a mile in distance has not been working well lately. Since last September, he’s gone a mile three times and gave up distance in the final quarter of the race. It should also be noted that the win in his last outing came with a drop to a $25,000 claiming race and leaving the allowance company. He will go through the door back to the allowance company and connections hope that some confidence with the recent win will flow back up the ladder.
2 A.P GOLDEN EMPIRE 6/1-This front runner had a nice run last summer, starting in June and ending in October where he netted a record of 3-1-0 in five races that included a fourth place finish. Over the following five starts this golden effort became tarnished as he was unable to touch a top-three finish. Perhaps you can throw out the one race that was on an off-track as a dislike for the wetness. And maybe toss out the grade level and listed stake races too as being a bit too tough competition wise. Speeds of 100+ have been recorded very frequently but getting this early speedster to stay up in front for the final quarter of the race will be a challenge to overcome.
3 LOUIE’S FLASH 13/1-It’s been over a year and a half since Louie last took a trip to the winner’s circle, in fact, he only has two wins in 23 starts. When he last won back in October, 2017, he did it in a rare fashion by an eye-opening 11 lengths at 9/1 odds. Speeds of 100 or better may be a thing of the past as he has hit it once in the last dozen outings. He will be making his first dirt start of the year and only the fourth time in his career with a third place finish as his best outcome on the surface. Struggles have been around for quite a while and getting a break in the form doesn’t appear likely.
4 I’M NOT GONNA CRY 3/1-Two of his last three races have been with speeds of 112 and 113 resulting in a win and a second. Squeezed between the two races is an embarrassing 6th place finish with 99 speed. He has been a strong dirt runner in 14 races, finishing first or second a total of 14 times. The distance suites this runner very well and he is in a good spot to deliver a win. But he has been skunked in the past too and he has found ways to disappoint too.
5 NOT INVINCIBLE 44/1-The longshot in the field has a lot going against him. First he has only 2 wins in 26 starts which both came on the turf. He has finished behind the winner in each of his last five races by double-digit length counts. He has not hit the board since March of 2018 which happened to be a win. He has only hit the 100-speed once in his career and that did happen on the dirt. To pull the upset, he will need to hit and exceed the 100-speed number. He enters off his second best dirt speed of 91 but to bump that up to a level necessary to get the victory will be a tough task
6 JQ TURN MYSELF IN 6/1-A winner of two races that both came early in his career. In fact, these came during his first four career starts. JQ has since been in a drought with 21 races in a row without a victory. Despite that drought, he has hit the board 10 times, nearly half of his starts during the drought. He also has been running streaks of 100+ speeds going three or four races in a row before dropping into the 90-range. His last start was a fifth place finish with a 99 speed and if his recent trackline holds up, he’ll be sporting another 100- speed in this race.
7 NUKA CHAMPION 9/2-An established mile runner will go slightly more than a mile, but it’s only half a furlong and he’ll be ok with that. Since last October, speeds have been over 100 and actually equaled the 100 number once in a streak of seven races. During this span, he’s obtained a nice 3-2-1 record and includes a respectful fourth. He’s a nice late runner and the fourth place finish came in a race where he was sent out to the front. As long as he avoids being a front runner in this race he should perform very well and is one to keep an eye upon.
8 TOP RESULT 2/1-The favorite in the race has been lightly raced making only five starts since last August. In that time, he was able to pull a win streak of three straight with speeds ranging from 110 to 116. He also has the fewest career starts of the field with only eight, of which he has won five times with a pair of thirds. His last start was in May and while he posted a decent 108 speed, it was not enough to hit the board. As the 7/2 favorite in the field, he was never a factor and generally ran five to six lengths behind the leader over the duration of the event and finished fifth. That was his only outing off the board and hopefully it will just be one of those races to forgive and forget. He should be able to top that effort in this race.
My kash in this race is going on the favorites as they look good and have shown nice consistency. It’s just a matter in which order I like them. I’ll go with TOP RESULT in the top spot as I think he will overcome the fifth in his last and pounce right back to the top. I’M NOT GOING TO CRY should be closer to the early speed and I’m leaning towards him for the second spot over NUKA CHAMPION who will probably need to make up more ground.