Black Time Bonanza Stakes

The 3^rd running of the Black Time Bonanza Stakes at a 1 1/16 for 3+ horses occurs this Saturday in Oklahoma.  The average winning speed number for this race is 106.9 with last year’s champion Peacenik holds the record at 110.9.  O/T oaklawn66 brought this beauty into this race last year winning 9 of its 22 races with a Grade I win at Clinton Potts and two Grade II races; the Rumson Stakes and the Wooden Indian.  Tragedy befell last year’s champion two weeks later when it pulled up in its next race.  Since that race it has lost 16 straight and has yet to show any of its earlier greatness.  Today’s horses are very evenly matched with 12 of the 14 easily able to post a 106 to 108 rating.  This creates a very competitive race that could be won by one of the longshots.

ALYCZAR (10-1)

Silver Deputy x Alydar

This 4YO will try to sit about 2 lengths behind the frontrunners as they turn for home.  O/T jedi made a great move, this colt had declining numbers in its last two races resulting in a much needed seven week layoff.  This freshening should result it rebounding to its 107 form.  This will be it fifth attempt at the stakes level with two second place finishes.  The two attempts at the Graded stakes level were disappointing. 

MY BEST STAR (6-1)

Casanova Star x L’Enjoleur

The 5YO horse is one of the many frontrunners in this race.  The problem lately has been it has faded in its last four attempts.  O/T Goodwin did a great job with this horse in the allowance company winning six of its last 12 allowance races.  The last four races have been at the stakes level and its best finish was third.  Five weeks of rest should bring this horse back to its 107-108 form.

HAWKFLY’S PHARBAT (9-1)

Hawk Wing x Lyphard

This 4YO has lots of speed and loves this distance.  I expect to see this horse stalking the leaders from about 2 and 5 lengths waiting for its opportunity.  This horse had a very interesting life when it started its career with its first 11 races on the turf then a switch to dirt, then another switch back to turf until its latest switch.  The last six on the dirt stuff has resulted in four wins in five races with one being a stakes race.  The last race resulted in a 113, yet today it has one of the weaker jockeys onboard.

WALL OF WONDER (21-1)

Empire Maker x Carson City

This beautifully bred 3YO colt is a winner of four of its last six races.  This colt loves be on the front and will try to go wire to wire Saturday.  It has been nicely moved through the allowance ranks by O/T steller3 and last out it posted a career best of 105.  A couple problems for this colt; it has faded in its last 3 races, and interestingly in its last five races it had the same jock.  Today’s jock is not one of the best.  This will also be its first stakes race and it will be facing a much larger and more competitive field than in its previous races.

GONE WEST WITH ACT (7-1)

Gone West x Known Face

O/T coug has had problems trying to find the right surface for this 5YO.  In its first 15 races it kept being switch back and forth between dirt and turf resulting in only three wins.  Since the decision to stay on the dirt stuff; four wins with two of those being at the stakes level.  It has won three of its last four and the last race, in which it faded, can be blamed on being raced on only two weeks rest.  Since its last race this colt has rested for four weeks which should result in a 107-109 rating.

ROBERT THE BRUCE (18-1)

Mt. Livermore x Roberto

This 7YO started on the turf with seven races and its first race on the dirt was an allowance win.  The 05 Grade II Copenhagen Cup champion hasn’t won a race in eight months and has seen better days.  It looks like it is over its head at this level.

BT’S FLEET (6-1)

Afleet x Buckaroo

One of the early morning favorites, this 4YO has lost its last two stakes races with decent numbers.  Prior to its current losing streak it was had won three straight races; including a stakes level win, posting very nice triple digit numbers.  It look like it will be five lengths back and it has an awesome big kick in the stretch making this colt a danger for the frontrunners.  A problem for me is that it is coming off of just 2 weeks rest, but to be honest it has done well before on two weeks rest.  One of the true off-track horses should post a 107 rating, but so can 12 others in this race.

DEMONSTER (8-1)

Denon x The Minstrel

Here is another horse that should be about 3-4 lengths back with a big kick in the homestretch.  O/T Galileo picked up this beauty nine races back in a claimer.  Since the O/T switch this 4YO has won six races mostly though in the starter allowances and allowances.  Distance is not a problem and in its last race it definitely needed an extra 1/16 of a mile and it gets it on Saturday.  I look for it to 105, but it will need 108 to 110 to win this stakes race and jock is okay.

GLOAT OR GOAT (7-1)

Sky Mesa x Seeking the Gold

If O/T estreli is right about the jockey selection of W Cahill (21%) tomorrow will be a day for gloating.  This 5YO frontrunner hopes that with the best jock onboard it should stop the fade it has experienced lately.  The last 3 stakes races, including the Grade I Bob Woodward Memorial, saw this horse totally collapse in the homestretch.  This winner of four stakes races hopes a wire to wire or maybe with a jockey decision could see it hold back a little so it doesn’t collapse like it has lately.  A win Saturday will most likely lead to another shot at the graded stakes level in which it has third place finish in 3 starts.

MR. PLUG (29-1)

Alphabet Soup x Gate Dancer

This 4YO is entering the race off of two straight allowance wins.  This one time auction horse has won three races with two seconds in 7 races under new O/T tsl403.  This was a nice steal, but the 96-97 speed ratings makes it doubtful this horse will be there at the finish; except it does come in rested with 5 weeks off.

BARB’S CARD SHARK (8-1)

Brahms x Fast Play

This 4YO is a big time closer that has a wonderful closing speed in the stretch.  Expect to see it about 7 to 10 lengths off the leaders waiting for its move.  O/T barbheff has finally switched it to the route for the first time.  This sprinter has been begging for the added distance and I’m little surprised it took this long.  It has struggled of late winning only one race in 12 attempts, but this switch should easily result in a 107 or even better speed rating.  Watch out for this one.

WAR GENERAL (7-1)

General Meeting x War Chant

This 5YO is like many in this race who has done well on the off-track surface.  This is a more difficult horse to read.  Expect it to be about four to seven lengths back and speed rating will range from 102 to 109.  It just missed in its last stakes race posting a 109, but it faded in this race held just two weeks ago.  This is by far the most decorated horse in the field with graded stakes wins; 05 Grade II Texas Derby, 05 Grade III Gary Asher Memorial Stakes and the 06 Grade II Mansur LeRoys Handicap.  Looking at its PP shows a pattern of triple digit race followed by a 90s race. 

ARCED (17-1)

Arch x Lion Hearted

This 5YO has had two bad races and lately doesn’t like this distance.  O/T sallygee is still trying to decide if it’s a turf or dirt horse along with if it is a router or sprinter.  It was claimed two races back and could pop a 104 to 105 if everything is right with horse. 

JEWEL BANDIT (61-1)

This 3YO will seek the lead Saturday.  It has yet to win an allowance race, and it’s second in the stakes race four back was for 3YO’s only.  Is this low 90s colt ready for this level, it’s gonna be tough.

This is a very competitive field with so many horses having the same range of speed ratings.  I don’t think the two co-favorites are strong enough to hold off these former and future stakes winners.   The two I like the best are Hawkfly’s Pharbat and Barb’s Card Shark with its first attempt at a route.   Also watch out for a horse that draws the top jock (Gloat or Goat) or is coming off a much needed rest (Alyczar).  This is going to be one exciting race to watch.

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