Dollis Hill Heads Betting in Queensland
The Knick Knack Juvenile headlines this weeks
A really hard event to analyze, as every one of the thirteen lightly raced runners has put in at least one run which would challenge their right to be labeled genuine topliners. Is that an indication that the top juveniles this year are a very even bunch? or that the top quality runners have yet to assert themselves? Perhaps we’ll find out this week.
We’ll work our way through the field:
Moose Tracks has drawn the coveted inside barrier. This is a big ask in that he’s had four runs on the dirt and is tackling Grade 1 company for his first try on the grass. His first couple of runs had him looking like a star in the making, then he stepped up to the route trips and has failed twice, therefore giving us concerns with both the surface and the distance. He’s a son of Street Cry (good sign for the surface) from Southbound Moose (Cozzene / Sadler’s Wells). Mum was a Grade 2 placed turf router and his two older half siblings have both been stakes placed. Although his exposed form makes him a risky proposition at this level on previously untried surface, he comes from a good family with plenty of green in the blood. pullaway3 owned and trained, Moose Tracks is a risky proposition, but impossible to totally dismiss.
Barrier stall 2 has been reserved for Idlepimps, and I feel he’s been overlooked by the oddsmakers here, and as such could represent good value at the 22/1 on offer. In a race lacking in superstars, and where every runner has a glitch on the scoreboard, this bloke can at least boast a 100% win rate from turf routes. Sure its only one from one, and at allowance level, but you don’t take home any more money by breaking track records. 6ward bred this colt by sending three times stakes placed mare Level Head (Level Sands / Sadler’s Wells) to Oratorio for this, her first mating. Idlepimps hasn’t drawn too well in the jockey lottery and will need plenty of luck, but a decent run will not surprise.
Saint Vivant is due to line up at number 3. Racing for the famous super conglomerate, he’s well respected in the early market, despite putting in a slightly sub-par effort last time out. That last run was the only stumble in an otherwise impressive five start career, and as all his opponents also bring a degree of mixed form into the event, it may well pay to overlook that latest outing. His record consists of two wins and two ITM’s in graded company, and that’s just about as good a formline as any in the race. Saint Vivant is a scratchbred son of Street Cry / Danehill / Roberto. He’ll carry an in form rider and is a genuine chance.
Raging Menace, from gate 4, is another who looks more of a chance than his price in early betting would indicate. With steadily improving speed figures and a last start third in the G1-High Flyer Stakes, he’s established his credentials at this ultimate level of competition. That’s a claim which cannot be made by one or two of his more highly fancied rivals. In a race largely lacking in consistency, this colt is an exception, improving his speed ratings at every outing, winning his maiden and allowance in succession, then running a strong third when stepped up to highest level of competition. Bred by trainer teerades, he’s a son of lightly used inexpensive sire Trail City, from Wild ‘N’ Free (Deputy Wildcat / Nureyev). I feel his price may be more a reflection of his moderate blood than his racetrack performance. Excellent value at 12/1.
Affirm This jumps from 5, and lines up here for just his third career outing. His most recent run obviously inspired his connections to aim for the top. After starting out with a comfortable maiden win, which, because of the leisurely time, proved nothing, he then steeped up to ungraded stakes, and showed plenty of heart before fading late. His time in defeat indicated that he would not need a great deal more natural improvement to mix it with the cream at this early stage of his career. He’s a scratchbred son of Montjeu / Affirmed / Caerleon, and as such lack nothing in the search for a turf router. tihsho has decided to throw Affirm This in at the deep end, and it may well prove a wise decision.
Azdemonic jumps from 6, and the lenny trained colt probably needs to find a few lengths to challenge his more fancied rivals. Of course, at this time of the juvenile season, such improvements abound, and he may well be in the right place at the right time. Of some concern is that he’s had two of his four starts under these conditions, and while the allowance third and stakes second were creditable, they did result in defeats against a lesser class of opposition. Balancing that is the fact that nothing lines up her with an unblemished record, and this colt is established against black type opposition. Adzemonic is by Azamour, the first foal of dual stakeswinner Demonic Theory (Rainbow Quest / Not for Love). He’s not without a chance, and if you like his chances, she’s at a great price.
Galvanized Anchor was slightly disappointing last start out in the G1- High Flyer Stakes, but he was in the mix for a long way in his first attempt at this level of racing. He meets a couple who finished ahead of him in that event, so he’ll need to find a bit to turn the tables. However, his prior run was full of merit, when second in the G3-Tiny Toes Stakes, and if he can replicate that run he’ll prove more of a threat. With three of his five runs having been against Graded opposition he’s been given a solid grounding at the higher level, but that also presents a negative in that he’s failed to greet the judge on those three occasions. Bred by jeffdrew, Galvanized Anchor is a son of Charge Forward, from Ray of Sky (Cozzene / Rahy), he’s already the most successful of his dam’s three progeny and is one of many with a good chance this week.
Dollis Hill jumps from gate 8. In a tight betting race, this colt has been given the nod from the bookmakers, and heads the betting at 9/2. His pattern in his earlier runs makes him the omen selection here, as his six starts have seen him win, lose, win, lose, win, and lose. It’s win time this week. Breeder / trainer liam has given him a solid grounding for this, winning twice at ungraded level before tackling the graded opposition. He’s a son of Afleet, from the breeder’s excellent Grade 1 winning mare Red Dulhert (Deputy Minister / Storm Cat). Dollis Hill is her fourth issue, and each her offspring is surpassing the achievements of it’s predecessors. This one looks like he might be the first to emulate the family’s earlier deeds.
Gate 9 sees Danisha line up for paceman2 and if there’s a major concern with this young colt, it may be that the eight and a half this week is still not far enough. He’s developed a recent habit of running out of time to close the gap on the leaders, so it looks certain that he won’t find the trip too far. Like all of his opponents, he’s shown a kink or two in his armour, but he’s also shown the ability to bounce back and unlike some of the others here, there’s virtually no doubt that he’ll be doing his best work at the finish. Danisha is a son of Dansili and is the first offspring of sim legend and 2004 Eclipse award winner,
Gate 10 is to be the starting position for Busted Hollow, lining up here following a most impressive allowance victory last start. On the plus side of his record is the fact that he’s recorded two wins and a second from his four trips to the track. The negative argument points out that his only failure was at his only attempt against black type opposition, and that he’s adding a couple of furlongs to the previous extent of his distance range. Of course, he’s never failed over the route trip, so that perhaps balances the negatives. Bred by trainer hawkz, he’s a son of Beat Hollow from Granny Bust (Bustino / L’Enjoleur). He’s the second issue of his lightly raced three times victorious dam, and is half brother to a winner of $400k. In a tough race, if he handle’s the jump in distance, Busted Hollow is a solid chance to significantly reduce the earnings gap on his sibling.
In gate 11 we have True Blood who is the enigma of this race. Being sent out the lavish quote of 36/1, a quick glance at her speed ratings would give the only filly in the event little chance against a field of runners generally sporting much higher numbers. She is, however, the only runner lining up with two consecutive victories from her two most recent starts. As Grade 1 racing generally requires winning form to warrant respect, this fily can, at least on that level, demand her fair share of that. Disregarded in the markets possibly because of her modest blood (scratchbred daughter of Desert Style / Shelter Half / Tony Bin), and partly because of her unexciting speed figures to date, it must be remembered that the boreanaz bred and trained filly is a black type winner at her only attempt. This is a huge jump in class, and she’s never tried the trip before, but True Blood is the longest priced runner in the event and I doubt that she deserves to be so harshly treated.
Hoarfrost Hill will jump from gate 12. With his only blemish a fourth placing in the ultra competitive Smackdown series, this colt bounced back solidly with a most convincing win over these conditions last time out. In a field bereft of the consistency one normally associates with the highest class of racing, this chap probably scores major points in that department. Winner of maiden, allowance and stakes from his five to date, he’s had a thorough preparation for this event and as previously mentioned, has already tasted victory over the eight and a half furlongs. Bred by trainer confessor. Hoarfrost Hill is a scratchbred son of Danehill Dancer / Fappiano / Caerleon. He scores the services of a leading rider and looks one of the standout chances in a very tough race
From the outside comes The Stardust, with seven races on his CV, the most experienced runner taking part in the event. With three wins and another three ITM’s, he’s among the more consistent performers, and his last start second in the G1-High Flyer Stakes gives him the previous look at Grade 1 racing which so many of his rivals have yet to taste. If we look at the three most recent starts as the most important races when considering form, then this colt comes out on top, as he’s one of only two to boast two wins and a second from those three, and he’s achieved it all against higher quality opposition. Bred by owner greatnames, The Stardust is a scratchbred son of Generous / Shirley Heights / Vaguely Noble. The best jockey and the best form make him impossible to look past.
Summary: A bit disappointing for a Grade I, in that no runner has the sort of unblemished record we’d expect to see from a group of lightly raced juveniles taking on the highest grade of racing possible. I’m giving The Stardust my first selection as he ticks the most boxes. Raging Menace is at a ridiculous price for a last start Grade 1 placegetter, so I’m putting him in second, and, keeping with the value theme, Affirm This for third.
The Betting Order:
9/2 – Dollis Hill
5/1 – The Stardust
6/1 – Saint Vivant, Danisha
7/1 – Hoarfrost Hill
The computer likes:
The Stardust – 3
Raging Menace – 12
Galvanized Anchor – 20
Hoarfrost Hill – 28
Saint Vivant – 36