The Heyman Sprint Stakes
The Heyman Sprint Stakes (GIII)
6 Furlongs on the sloppy main track
Eleven fillies and mares will take the track this week in the Heyman Sprint Stakes, a Grade III event covering six furlongs in the slop. How these horses handle the slop will likely be the key to finding the winner.
11/1 Thetis (Lion Heart x Black Tie Affair(IRE) x Caerleon) – troy5 sends this 4yo filly out in good form. She’s coming off of back to back allowance wins and a career best speed figure. This stakes-winning four year old daughter of Lion Heart is looking to finally break through against graded competition. Her best races have perhaps been a tick below the best in this race, but she is on an improving pattern and another effort like her last would put her right in the mix. Her only off track experience was on the turf, and that race didn’t go well.
9/1 Cinematic (Seeking The Gold x Sadler’s Wells x Secretariat) – Cinematic, a well bred filly from topicountc’s barn, will also be looking for her first graded win. Also like Thetis, she’s coming off of back to back allowance wins – and more importantly – three straight speed figures over 100. This versatile filly is a stakes winner on both turf and dirt. She has three wins from six starts at the distance and has run in the slop before, finishing a nice second in an allowance race last July with a speed figure roughly in line with what she had been producing on the fast track at the time.
9/2 Hurricane Katrina (Tale Of The Cat x Stop The Music x Majestic Prince) – champions4 sends out Hurricane Katrina, the co-favorite in this race. Looking at her record, it’s pretty clear why the odds makers like her so much. She consistently runs speed figures over 100 and does so against some pretty good competition. Unfortunately, all of that may not be enough to overcome what appears to be a dislike for sloppy tracks. She’s only run on one once – back in April – but it was by far her worst effort this year. It’s possible that was just a bad race, however, and if so she’s definitely one of the best fillies in the race.
5/1 Suffragette City (Carson City x Affirmed x Darshaan(ENG)) – sdmf5’s 5yo homebred mare has several things going for her that could result in a minor upset in today’s race. She likes to come from well off the pace, so she won’t get used up in any sort of speed duel. She also appears to love the slop, having run second by a head in a Grade III race last year over a similar surface. Her last race speed figure of 108 is one of the best in the field, and given the company she normally keeps, this race might be considered a slight drop in class for her. At 5-1, she’s a decent longshot to play.
9/1 Moguer (E Dubai x Storm Cat x Hoist The Flag) – platero has found an interesting spot to place this well bred 6yo mare back on the dirt. She spent most of her early career in dirt routes before swithching almost exclusively to turf sprints in the last year. She’s a two time Grade I winner at a mile and a sixteenth, and is 3-4 over sloppy tracks. Her best days are probably behind her, but she’s got the class and off-track ability to be a threat in this race.
30/1 Magpie’s Causeway(ENG) (Green Desert x Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Gone West) – The longest shot on the board is this lightly raced 3yo filly owned by turfwins. This is her first race in nearly two months, and she’ll be taking on older horses for the second time. While she wasn’t embarassed in her first race against older fillies and mares, she wasn’t spectacular either and her career speed figures don’t quite match up with some others in here. However, she is an improving 3yo (last race was a career best SP by 7 points), and another similar improvement would put her right in the middle of the competition.
5/1 Classic (Tabasco Cat x Conquistador Cielo x Tom Fool) – Pretty much everything I said about Suffragette City above applies even more to this speedy mare out of sunkitten’s barn. While she doesn’t have much experience sprinting, she does have a stakes victory this year going seven furlongs over a track rated as good with a speed figure of 113. She’s also posted speed figures of 111 and 102 this year. So, she appears to like off tracks, has the ability to run a monster race, and is a graded winner. What’s not to like? The only question appears to be regarding if she’ll be able to close fast enough to get up in a six furlong race.
9/2 Mail Order Bride (Gone West x Nijinsky II x Round Table) – The other co-favorite in the race is this homebred from zapspride’s barn. She’s a ten time stakes winner looking for her first graded win. She’s accomplished at the distance, the 44th ranked sprinting mare, and on an improving SP pattern (100, 101, 109). Finally, she also appears to like the off track. To put it simply, she’s the deserved favorite.
8/1 Kepler Gnaget (Rahy x Nureyev x Mr. Prospector) – This 4yo filly from marianus’s barn had a monster 3yo season. Unfortunatly, she hasn’t been able to put it all together this year. She’s a graded winner at this distance as a 3yo, but as I already said, she hasn’t shown much of that form this year. Her off-track record is a mixed bag, with some very good races and some terrible ones. On her day, she’s more than capable of winning this race, but I can’t see it happening here.
23/1 Growling(KY) (Kingmambo x Forestry x Royal Academy) – The other 3yo filly in this race, super7 sends out a filly who’s breeding says all turf but the race performances say all dirt. She’s been either first or second in half of her races on dirt – most of them sprints. She’ll be facing her elders for the first time, and her speed figures so far don’t quite match up – though her last two have been pretty nice (101, 95). She could win this by taking another step forward, but this appears to be a pretty tough spot to be making her debut against older runners. One to watch out for in the future.
7/1 Old French Luv (Empire Maker x Theatrical(IRE) x Danzig) – theoldguy appears to have a pretty nice filly on his hands here. She’s very lightly raced for a 4yo filly with just 11 career races. She had a nice allowance win in May over a similar surface, and is coming off a second place finish in The Counting With Poet Bonanza on Sept. 15th here at Finland. She’s hit the board in 10 of her 11 lifetime races, only missing in her first career start on the turf. One can easily make the case that she’ll hit the board here as well.
Analysis: This is a pretty evenly matched race. Kepler Gnaget should lead the field into the stretch, but I can’t see her crossing the line first. Mail Order Bride is the deserving favorite with Classic and Suffragette City just behind her. Old French Luv is an interesting one. I could definitely see her taking this race, and given that she sits pretty close to the pace, she should have the first run at the leader when they turn into the lane.