Cotton Handicap

The 8^th running of the Cotton Handicap expects to see its usual loaded field of future and former graded stakes winners.  This Grade II handicap for 3YO fillies and mares in Pennsylvania goes 1 1/16M.  On average the winning horse of this handicap has or will win 5 graded stakes races.  Last years winner Armed With Money has already won 8 graded stakes races.  This race has also crowned as its winner 7-times graded stakes winner Livvi’s Lass.  The average winning speed rating should fall somewhere between 107 to 111.  The field usually averages about 8 future or former graded stakes winners and the highest speed rating (120.2) was posted by Squall Is A Storm which also is a 7-times graded stakes winner.  Saturday’s race already has seven graded stakes winners and if history is right a couple more of this Filly’s will experience that thrill if not today.

VERA GEMINI (12-1)

Kingmambo x Danzig

This little 3YO filly started its career on the turf winning three of its first nine races.  The Grade III Snaggin’ Wagon Stakes winner posted a 106 rating in that race.  The O/T malekfarms pulled off a little coup when it made a surprising switch six races back to dirt and won a small stakes race.  Its last race in the Grade II Fast Feline Stakes was an improvement over its last couple of races with a 98 and closed fast in that race.  The previous graded experiences were less than to be desired with a 92 average.

CROSSBRED IN A TIE (18-1)

Gators N Bears x Black Tie Affair

The 3YO filly is the winner of the Grade III Timber Stakes.  She has posted mainly in the 90s with declining numbers lately.  It is coming off of a seven week layoff.  This could be a good sign because its graded stakes win came off a similar layoff when it posted a career best 98.  Most of you might remember this horse as it started out in the Ohio Leg series for 2YO. 

LADY FLY (15-1)

Storm Cat x Machiavellian

This will be its first stakes race for this Storm Cat filly.  Its success has been in allowance company, but if race is off track watch out.  It posted a career high 101 in its last race on a sloppy track. 

FLEETWOOD MIA (7/2)

Strike the Gold x Seattle Slew

The morning line favorite has already won the Grade I Dancer Cap and the Grade III Flurry Stakes.  This filly started off fast winning seven of its first 10 races with 3 seconds.  As a 2YO and early 3YO it won 3 stakes races in those first 10 races.  It likes to sit about 5 lengths off the pace and has a wonderful late kick.  This filly is begging for the distance since this will be its first race at a route and this winner of three of its last four looks like the one to beat.  If the race is off track it posted a 114 rating three races back just adds to its resume.

RAISE A LAKE (42-1)

Salt Lake x Raise A Bid

This lightly raced 3YO has won a small stakes race with a 94.  This will be a big step up in class for this long shot since it has only post 90s rating twice.  If this horse comes to play look for it to be at the back of the pack with a late kick.

KATHERINEOFARAGON (8-1)

High Yield x Kingmambo

This filly has been posting 100s in 3 of its last 4 races.  This beauty has already won 4 Grade I stakes races which include The Getaway Stakes and Movieland Startlet as a 2YO.  As a 3YO she won the Black Middle Flower Stakes and the Sister Hen Stakes.  In her last race, the Grade II Fast Feline Stakes it fell short as it made a late bid for the win.  I expect this filly to pop somewhere between 102 and 105 while sitting four lengths off the leaders and at the turn for home it needs to be just off the leader or in the lead to win. 

SAND IN DUBAI (6-1)

Saarland x Deputy Minister

This filly posted its first triple digit rating as it won the Grade II Fantasia Handicap seven races back.  In its last stakes race it posted a 109 rating at 1M, but needed more distance to win the race.  I expect this filly to be about 3 to 5 lengths off the front runners and it is well rested with 5 weeks off.  That rest should allow it to make a massive rush for the finish.

WILLOWRUN HOTTIE (9-1)

Silver Deputy x Seattle Slew

This filly has been slowing brought through the allowance ranks by O/T latekick.  It has competed as a 2YO in a couple small stakes races finishing 2^nd.   In its last two stakes races as a 3YO it was outrun.  It does have the ability to pop a 104 rating.  Expect this horse to sit about 5 lengths off the pace and if it makes its move at the right time it might pull this one out.

PRAVDA (8-1)

Kingmambo x Pleasant Colony

The 7^th ranked filly in the Dirt Classic is the winner of the Grade I lool Oaks and the Grade III Ontario BB Oaks in its last race.  In the Grade III race it posted a career best 104 and with these speed numbers showing an increase over the last four races makes this a very competitive horse.  It’s best performances are when this filly sits about 5 to 6 lengths off the pace and should find itself not alone Saturday.  O/T Super10 has convinced one of the top jocks, Piotrowski (24%), to ride this champion.

LOCKET (16-1)

Eurosilver x Pulpit

This filly is known for its closing ability.  O/T invisible has tried it routes and sprints.  This filly has been invisible in the winners circle in its last 10 races.  Its last race was the Grade III Ontario BB Oaks and it needed more distance and today it gets it.  I like Pravda a lot in this race, but watch out for long shot closer as it has finished second in races at a shorter distance than todays.

DARK PLACES (10-1)

Black Tie Affair x Danzig

This filly will try to go for the lead and there is not much speed in this race.  I expect it could find itself all alone as the big girls fights for contention four or five lengths back.  In its last 3 graded stakes races it average a 98 and led or challenge in all those races.  The problem is that it has faded badly in the last two races.  This fillies stakes win was on an off track so watch the weather channel.

ALL OVER THIS (15-1)

Aptitude x Unbridled

This Allowance NW1X has had improving numbers in its last four races.  This is always a good sign for a bigger number.  It almost pulled off a victory in a smaller stakes race when it posted a 102 rating.  It’s another one of those horses that I expect to be about 4 to 5 lengths off the leader making the turn for home a mess as they all position themselves for the final kick.

WINTER DREAMS (10-1)

Afleet Alex x Nijinsky II

This filly has posted nice numbers of 101 and 104 in two of its last three races.  It has been nicely moved through the allowance conditions.  The last two attempts at stakes races this got gassed.  This filly will be sitting right off the leader hoping to tire out the front runner Dark Places and position itself for the furious finish I expect to see.

LOCKED ON HIGH (11-1)

High Yield x Sharp Drummer

The Grade III Leopard Stakes four races back has struggled in its last two races.  It needs to regain its form of 101 to 102 rating to be competitive Saturday.  O/T wdfifty hopes this horse will sit about 2 to 3 lengths off the leader.  It is rested and hopefully its history of fading in its last four races has ended.  This horse was 9/2 choice of the public in the Grade II Fast Feline Stakes which some of these horses competed in their race.

This is a tough race to call with so many former graded stakes winners and a few future graded winners in the field.  There seems to be parts to this race, the front runners of Dark Places and Winter Dreams hoping to go wire to wire, while the stalker and closers position themselves for what I believe will be one of the most exciting finishes this year.  My picks are 9 – 10 – 6 – 4.  I look for Locket to make it very interesting for Pravda in tomorrows Grade II Handicap.  I just think the favorites have too many nicks and I’ve feeling about this Pravda/Locket match-up since Wednesday.