Rapid Grey Vs. Lex Luthor

Longchamp – Gone are the days of the great Allied Assault, sensational Bristol Rovers, awesome Rain God, and the mighty Sunnybank Memorial… The last of their kind remains in Horseshoe Bay, however, the living legend will not be showing up on Saturday.  This leaves us with a couple colts that have daydreams of having their names listed among the great turf marathoners: Lex Luthor & Rapid Grey… Those dreams don’t see to be too far off in the distance.

Past horses to grace the Ark’s winner’s enclosure include the following:

2001 – The inaugural running of the Ark De Triumph showcased the magnificent filly Cecil Roo (then 4 yrs old).  The bettors loved her, sending her to the post as the 2/1 favorite.  Cecil Roo was all business that day as she entered PP 4.  She broke cleanly and settled off the pace, reserving her speed for that long stretch drive.  In her company were eventual runner up September Matt and hall of famer Dusty Dance.  Dusty Dance went straight to the lead and dared the filly to come and get him.  And that she did.  But Dusty made her work for it.  The filly got up in the final strides to win by 1 ¾ lengths with a 109sp.  She stopped the clock in a then blazing 2:30.6.  That time held for 3 years (in the Sim that’s darn good).  Since her time 4 other fillies have come and gone in their attempt to lay claim to this crown… but none had the credentials that Cecil brought to the table.  Saturday, Cache will be the 6^th filly to start in the Ark.  She is the only other filly that has odds lower than 10/1 (going off at 5/1), and the only filly that stands a legit chance.  Cecil Roo is now in the Sim Hall of Fame.

2002 – Commander Paul is the only longshot to win the Ark De Triumph.  At odds 24/1, the Commander broke from PP 6 and settled into the rear of the field.  As they turned for home the colt had shifted into overdrive, surging past the eventual runner-up, Monjeux, who had assisted in setting the early pace.  Commander Paul sailed under the wire by a then record 6 lengths.  The final time was 2:31.4 with a 104sp.

2003 – Salfly’s Well is has the Ark record for largest margin in winning.  The gelding broke from the rail that day, PP 1, as the 4/1 3^rd choice.  He settled nicely just off the pace about mid-pack.  However, before the field rounded the final turn, Salfly’s Well had taken control and was already easing off to glory.  His ears were pricked, tail streaming behind him, as he floated under the wire by 8 incredible lengths; he had made a parade of the G1 field that include hall of famer Stormy Prospector.  The final time was 2:31.2 over a yielding track.  Salfly’s Well posted a 105sp.  Exeter Weapon was runner up.

2004 – Ebro entered the post parade as the 4/1 3^rd choice in a field that included the defending Ark champ, Salfly’s Wells, as well as top marathoners Sunnybank Memorial, Paper St. Soup Co., and fan-darling Bob The Cob.  Ebro broke alertly from PP 9, darted towards the rail and warned others they better keep or else.  In the end, it was “or else.”  Ebro held off a late-ditch run by runner-up Alleged Fantastic and Sunnybank Memorial to steal the show by a ½ L – he had wired the field in 2:30.4 with a 110sp, breaking the stakes record set by inaugural winner Cecil Roo.  His record held for 2 years (that’s good in the Sim).

2005 – Bristol Rovers left the gate from PP 3 as the 3/1 pos-time favorite.  The Sim gods played right into the plan by bringing up a yielding turf surface.  Bristol Rovers rated from the back before charging past frontrunner Militant to win by an easy 4 ½ L with a 100sp.  The fractions were bleak; the winning time was a crawling 2:31.2.  Bristol Rovers is now in the Sim Hall of Fame.

2006 – Horseshoe Bay strolled around the paddock as the 2/1 post-time favorite.  The legendary stallion broke from PP 5 and bid his sweet time in the rear of the back.  Horseshoe bay bowled down pacesetter (and runnerup) Lex Luthor to win by 3 ¾ L with a 113sp and a stakes record shattering 2:28.8.  No doubt about Horseshoes Bay’s eventual induction into the Sim Hall of Fame.

Here are the times for the past 6 runnings of the Ark De Triumph listed in order from fastest to slowest.  The stakes record is currently held by Horseshoe Bay.  It will be extremely tuff to beat, but if there’s a field that could break it, it would be this one… After all, the pacesetter, Lex Luthor, from last year’s running is back to get vengeance.

Times (fastest to slowest):

2006: Horseshoe Bay, 2:28.8, shattered prior record

2004: Ebro, 2:30.4

2001: Cecil Roo, 2:30.6 (filly)

2003: Salfly’s Well, 2:31.2 (yielding)

2005: Bristol Rovers, 2:31.2 (yielding)

2002: Commander Paul, 2:31.4

We’ve got some heady trainers pulling into this race with some real talented runners.  Let’s see how these 8 racehorses will write their stories…

PP 1: CACHE(SAF), 4yoF by Horse Chestnut x (Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer)

Bred & Trained by: misery                Jockey: T Thedog (12% wins)

          Odds: 5/1                                 Rank: 4

Ladies first!  Cache sashays into the event as only the 6^th filly (in 73 starters) to take on the Ark De Triumph (filly #1, of course, was none other than the legendary Cecil Roo).  After her so-close-to-taste defeat in the inaugural WC Ladies Turf Marathon last time out (lost by 1 ¾ lengths to Danzing Theatre & Nerf Herder), she is poised to take on these boys.  In her last 5 starts the filly has finished 2^nd or 3^rd each time.  Her last victory came in the G2 Petunia Hcp over 12F in March.  Let’s just say this bridesmaid’s looking for a groom! She comes in with good odds & good post position.

PP 2: RAINBAND(AUS), 3yoC by Spinning World x (Rainbow Quest x Dixieland Band)

          Bred & Trained by: wulf                   Jockey: B Thedog (12% wins)

          Odds: 9/1                                 Rank: 56

Seems only right that the young’n takes the next stall…  Well… Atleast in my mind it does.  J  Rainband is my sentimental favorite in this race (not saying that I don’t love the 2 favs, Lex Luthor & Rapid Grey).  After Sea King Cyclone & Paper Jesus took turns beating up on this poor guy, B4rca jumped on the MB and questioned whether to shorten up his colt even further or dare and test him around a mile for the 1^st time?  Nearly every person encouraged him to try the route – you never know what these Sim ponies will like till you do it.  The colt loved it, winning at 1^st asking.  It’s been all roses since then … well, almost.  His 2^nd route was in the G2 Tette Classic where he finished a lackluster 10^th.  B4rca put him back in allowances for his next 2 starts, one over 9f and the other over 10f.  Rainband relished ‘em, winning accordingly.  Last time out was the G2 10f Early Months Stakes.  Rainband turned the lights out on those guys, closing like a freight train to win by a ½ length.  Saturday’s race will be 2f longer than anything the colt has previously attempted, but he is training fantastically. What’s not to love about his racing record?  Very consistent colt.  I pick him in the top 3.

PP 3: EL FREDO(IRE), 4yoC by El Prado x (Trempolino x Stage Door Johnny)

          Bred & Trained by: fwcltd                 Jockey: J Ventura (17% wins)

          Odds: 8/1                                 Rank: 25

Breaking from stall 3 is speed horse numero uno who looms from the Delta Tiger Stables.  With Rainband preferring to take his sweet time out of the gate & Cache most likely not planning on gunning for the lead, El Fredo should be able to make it to the rail without a problem.  The 4yo son of El Prado is the winner of the G2 12f Pan Americana in March.  Most likely you’ll find this grey harassing Lex Luthor early on up front.  Questions remain on whether he will have what it takes to keep the pressure on or will he falter down the backside?  His connections have attempted to rate him in the past, but this guy is plain and simple a big free-running type.  He’ll need to step up to the plate to break into the top 3 spots, but I won’t put it past him.

PP 4: KEPLER OF ROCK(IRE), 5yoH by Rock of Gibraltar x (Kingmambo x Affirmed)

          Bred by: marre2                      Jockey: E Wood (8% wins)

          Trained by: bobo

          Odds: 12/1                               Rank: 179

Kepler of Rock, the old man of the field (yes, 52 starts = over the hill), has the important job of separating the 2 speedsters from one another.  It looks like he may have his hands full in this race, however, as he hasn’t been racing like he once did.  Yes, he has earned nearly a million dollars in his 20 victories, but as much as I hate to say it, Kepler of Rock just doesn’t belong in Saturday’s race.  The 5yo has done his best running in allowance races this year.  I don’t see him as serving much of a threat to the others in this race.

PP 5: LEX LUTHOR, 4yoC by Empire Maker x (Theatrical x Seeking The Gold)

          Bred & Trained by: galileo               Jockey: B Wu (23% wins)

          Odds: 4/1                                 Rank: 2

Lex Luthor is speed demon numero dos.  The mighty villain has won 5 of 7 starts this season including the G1 12f Coronation Cup & G1 12f Tower Bridge Stake.  He returns Saturday to redeem his defeat in last year’s Ark De Triumph where he lost to the legendary Horseshoe Bay by 3 ¼ lengths after setting rapid fractions throughout.  His racing style dares all opposers to try to keep up, and you would think that by now someone would figure out a way to stop this swift monster.  Last time out, Lex had a nice easy stroll around 10f in the Luthor Corp 33.1 Stakes returning 10 cents on the dollar for his 5 length victory.  Lex is on an agenda to take the Ark De Triumph and the Breeder’s Bowl Turf – I feel sorry for anyone who dares to get in his path.

PP 6: GUCCI TO TRY, 5yoH by Sadler’s Wells x (Nashwan x Carson City)

          Bred & Trained by: loisblack                      Jockey: J Neihbors (10% wins)

          Odds: 13/1                                        Rank: 1094

Talk about intimidating – how about having to break out of the gate between two big imposing superstars to your either side?  I know that would be enough to make me weak in the knees.  Hopefully, Gucci To Try will have the courage to keep running strong once those gates open up.  The lightly raced 5yo (only 22 starts) doesn’t appear to be quite up to this as he is stakes placed at best.  The last time Gucci To Try traveled around 12f was December 2006.  With the exception of last time out (10f race), the gelding has been limited to 6.5 to 8.5f.  He does have some early speed, though not much and will have a difficult time keeping up with the 2 clear frontrunners.

PP 7: RAPID GREY, 5yoC by Tactical Cat x (With Approval x Bold Ruckus)

          Bred by: runabout                                      Jockey: J Ledwith (21% wins)

          Trained by: champions4

          Odds: 9/5                                          Rank: 5

Who doesn’t love a horse that loves to win?  If you don’t then move on from here you have nothing to see, but everything to lose.  Rapid Grey has been fantastic in 2007.  He has 7 races notched under his belt this year with only one imperfection – a race in which he ran out of ground after traffic problems and finished 2^nd having made up 10 lengths in his drive to the wire to lose by 1 ¾ lengths to foe Otto Oh No (he redeemed himself last time out by schooling Otto in the Windy City).  But don’t fret over that minor detail that can be overlooked by his 5 other G1 victories in his 7 starts this year.  He ain’t no slouch.  Now can he carry his talent over 12f?  He has before.  He’ll have the speed demon Lex Luthor to run down, but Rapid Grey has more than enough afterburners in his tank.

PP 8: GOOD TO BE KING, 4yoC by Smarty Jones x (A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells)

          Bred by: fatattack                              Jockey: S Graf (12% wins)

          Trained by: super21

          Odds: 9/2                                          Rank: 26

Good To Be King will enter the gate as 9/2 3^rd choice.  He appears to do his best running when he stays within 5 lengths of the pacesetters; however he showed last time out that he can move from 12 lengths back to score a victory in the G2 12f Horseshoe Falls Stakes.  The last time the son of Smarty Jones went head-to-head with Lex Luthor was back in June 2006 in the G1 Derby De English as 3yos.  The come-from-the-clouds closer didn’t stand a chance against the balls-to-the-walls speed demon – managing to move from 10^th 12 lengths behind to 2^nd, 6 ½ lengths back at the wire.  Prior to that meeting the two duked it out in April 2006 in the Sydney Derby. Lex Luthor lost that day to foe Cortez; Good To Be King was 3^rd fiddle to the 2 powerhouses.  Saturday, Good To Be King is prepared to have another go at his peer.  This prince is ready for his crown.

MY THOUGHTS:Bottom of Form

Lex Luthor is one tuff cookie on the lead, so unless someone brings the kryptonite, this guy is going to either wire the field or be right there at the finish.  Rapid Grey is in incredible form this season which makes it extremely hard to bet against him.  Rainband is an up-and-coming sophomore; if he can handle the added distance then he’ll be golden for a top 3 finish.  The two favorites are high-caliber Sim ponies which makes them hard to beat, thus I put Rainband 3^rd.  Cache is my “longshot pick” to upset the top 3; she will have to pace herself in order to not get smoked by the early quick fractions.

~Keely J