Utah BB
UTAH BB MILE – Grade II
10/06/2007
The Utah Feature this week is the Utah BB Mile, conducted over 8F on turf or the metric mile it seems to be quite an open affair.
PP 1 – Hollow Sun(GB) – favoritejj – Is a high quality horse trained by Favoritejj and run by the Goody stables. This son of Beat Hollow likes to run up on the pace. Last start he faded in the final stages over the mile – but that was in group 1 company. Prior to that he ran a good second in grade II and was just behind the placings in group company prior. He has placed at Grp 1 level over the same surface and distance and I can see him being a threat in the final furlong. – 7-1 is about right but the jockey riding at 6% doesn’t offer much.
PP 2 – Artificial Crisis – nowitsdark – The 5y.o son of Machiavellian was mixing his form towards the end of his last campaign, he’s had a few months on the sidelines and during his career has been there abouts in some handy races. I don’t know if he can win the race, as there are some others in it with better credentials, but if he gets a bit of pace early he may be a threat – Its worth noting he is undefeated (2/2) over the surface/distance of 8F on turf, albeit very early in his career – At 12-1 he is a rough chance, Jockey is riding at 10%. I’d like to see him run on the dirt as he is still untried after 15 starts.
PP 3 – Hitman – charmer – a 4y.o Grade 1 winning son of Strike the Gold. His last start was a below par effort in an otherwise good career. Leading is this guy’s game and if he can get to the front he should prove hard to run down. Has run some great times but if he doesn’t lead or fades before the stretch he could finish a long way back. At 11-1 he is worth a few bucks e/w – Jockey riding at 16% is a plus.
PP 4 – George W Loser –monimonica– has not broken the 60 speed rating barrier of late and will finish last. – No idea why trainer Monimonica has bothered. Ran around at $2379.10 2 starts back in a grade 2 affair. Has been distanced 5 out of its last 6 runs…Next
PP 5 – Vermont Victory – wtas02– a 4y.o Son of Two Punch, Vermont Victory has really started to lift his game of late and comes into this on the back of 4 wins and 2 placings in his last 6 starts. Last start was a fast closing 2nd in grade III company bringing in a 112 SR and prior to that led pretty much all of the way bringing in 111. After quite a bit of racing as a 2 and 3 y.o this guy has really matured and seems to be heading towards future big races. The bookies have him at 7-1 and I like the look of that – Jockey around 11%. I think this guy can possie up there and make a real lunge in the stretch.
PP 6 – Dela Groom T – highc – a 5y.o son of Gone West. Another who has been mixing his form of late. Was beaten 10L+ his last couple but prior to that ran a bold 3rd in Grade I company. Seems to be at his best when up on the pace and I think he can do that here. I don’t think he can win but in saying that i dont think he’ll be far off them, just lacks that bit of class. 13-1 is about right and I think there are better roughies in this field.
PP 7 – Ghetto Muppet (IRE) – elnop– 4y.o son of Rock of Gibraltar has been outclassed at his past couple, prior to that he was in good form and hadn’t missed a cheque for 6 runs. I think he has the potential to run a good race here but again I don’t think he is a winning chance. At 8-1 he is about right and unless he finds the form of a few months back he’s only a place chance here.
PP 8 – Croaton – sangster – The Red Ransom 4y.o has been an allowance horse his past 10+ starts and has thrown out some good SR of late. His past few runs have shown some good merit and if he can run up to that form here he would be a sneaky chance. He likes to just sit off the pace and make his move just before the stretch. I think he’ll get a little further back than usual in this race and more than likely finishing just behind the placings. At 16-1 he is value but the jockey at only 9% doesn’t help.
PP 9 – Sadler Seeker – tenpin6 – the 4y.o son of champion sire Seeking the Gold is in it up to his neck in this race. His runs in the past 6 months have been top class and his close 2nd last start in grade I company and his great win prior to that in grade II make him very hard to beat. He will drift back to the second half of the field and if he is within 6-8 lengths before the stretch he should be right there. – at 6-1 he is great value and the jockey riding at 26.6% he has everything going for him.
PP 10 – Dandior – castilette– the 4y.o son of Medaglia D’oro is another front-runner in this race. His past 6 starts he has led and not saluted which is a worry , but his close third two starts back behind Sadler Seeker puts him in this, If he leads he will run a good race, but with a lot of pace in the race it may be tough – even tho he seems very speedy early doors. He will bob up and win a decent race sooner or later as all these front-runners do but I just don’t know if it will be today.
At 10-1 he’s a chance but he’ll need a good lead into the stretch.
PP 11 – Queen Dominique (SAF) – dragon1 – The only female in the race and the 5y.o Daughter of the quiet sire Horse Chestnut doesn’t seem to be a chance in this field. She has not broken the 100 SR for a while and has been running around in female only events and hasn’t won since January. Tends to drift back and steadily make ground but I think she will struggle to match the sprint home with some of the others. At 20-1 she doesn’t have much hope and the jockey riding at less than 5% is a major concern. A nice mare that finds it hard to win, better off back in an allowance.
PP 12 – Zanzabar (IRE) – peeps8 – The 4y.o son of Galileo is the fav in this race and looks to be very hard to beat. Recently crossed the million dollar earnings mark and was in the form of his life winning 5 and running 2nd in his last 6 runs prior to his last start failure in the group 1 Canada Mile. Gets up on the pace and bursts clear in the stretch, and this drop back in class should suit him ideally. At 5-1 he is good value and I don’t really see him missing a place here, jockey around 10% is a concern but winning the smackdown in a SR of 118 speaks for itself.
PP 13 – Royal Smoker – luckyblue – a 6y.o son of The Smokester who has been in great form his past 6 runs. A backmarker who will get a fair way off them here but he has made good ground at just about all of his races over 8 on turf. His times are getting better and in this muddling affair I think he could be a good chance, as he is the only horse who seems to get right back. If he’s within 7-8L before the stretch he could be the blow-out. Class is the query but should be charging late.
At 9-1 he is value but again the jockey at 7% Is a concern – could be a real blow-out chance.
PP 14 – Government Listing – tegan – A 4y.o son of Smart Strike who was first up after a long break last time out. Led and ran a good third in an allowance. Showed some signs of good ability as a 3y.o and showed he liked to get to the front. If he improves on his first run and gets to the front he may be a place show, but I just can’t see him leading here or being a chance to win. Just not up to the grade II affair.
So overall it’s quite a tricky race with a lot of horses that like to get up the front or just off the pace. Whoever leads in should be able to run a good race, but im expecting a decent time either way. On top I have Sadler Seeker who I can see getting a good run, and having the last crack at them in the stretch, the jockey, form and class all add up. The fav Zanzabar will be the one he has to catch and should look like a winner at some stage, if he repeats his smackdown run he will win. Hitman, Vermont Victory and Royal Smoker are all chances and I can see them battling out the minor prizes.
1st – Sadler Seeker
2nd – Zanzabar
3rd – Vermont Victory