World Cup Juvenile Filly Mile

Twelve fillies are set to battle it out over the fast Minnesota oval for Grade I bragging rights for themselves, a $500,000 purse, and World Cup points as for their owners.  Many were nominated but few were chosen.  The selection process makes this race very different from most Grade I races.  Half of the field enters the race with two or fewer stakes points.  Has this race open to all comers, there is a question as to how many of this field would even qualify to be here.

Here are the teams:

North and South America

Despite having the highest ranked filly in the contest, the North and South America team finds three of their fillies rated as longshots.  However, they do find themselves with the short-priced favorite.

Post 4:  SABBATH POINT(KY)  (SEEKING THE GOLD x SEATTLE SLEW x DAMASCUS)  bred and trained by malekfarms (17%)  Odds: 5-2

She’s only run once, and that was in a residency restricted race, but it was a dominating performance in fast time over a wet track.  Her 89 speed figure is tied for the best in this race.  Oddly enough, had this race been open to all fillies and entry based on stakes points, she would undoubtedly be left out in the cold – she has no stakes points yet.  As to the residency restricted race, it’s worth pointing out that, with odds set more by breeding than  by performance this early in a career, she is at much lower odds facing this group than she was in that first outing.  Seeking the Gold is still producing stakes winners at a 17% rate. He doesn’t have a two-year-old graded winner yet.  Yet.  Barn is part of the AFC Stables, which belongs to the DelPenn National Residency.

Post 7:  LPGA SPIKE(KY)  (AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x CARSON CITY)  bred and trained by 19thhole (15%)  Odds: 10-1

Spike has already established a number twelve division ranking, tops in the field, with two wins in her two routes, including last time out where she pressed the pace and prevailed against a decent listed stakes field in Illinois.  She’ll be hoping to find an early pace and use her pressing style to run her win streak to three.  Her dam took until her four year old season and her sixteenth start to break her maiden, but she passed on some distance-loving genes to her daughter, and those genes have turned on early.  Stable is associated with the CR Racers Residency and is able to keep track of breeding by giving all colts names beginning with “PGA,” and fillies names beginning with “LPGA.”

Post 2:  ARMY RANGER(KY)  (WAR FRONT x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT)  bred and trained by futurestar (29%) Odds: 11-1

She handled a six filly listed field last time with ease in front running fashion, but could not prevail against a  four filly allowance the time before.  That allowance race, however, was sprinting and the stakes win was routing.  Her speed figures made a big jump when she stretched out.  If they all run to their last figure, she’ll need just as big a jump today.  The biggest thing going for her may be her connections.  Futurestar is part of the Dixiedotco stables, associated with Pastured of Green Residency, and one of the highest percentage trainers in the game.

Post 8:  MILENNIUM DRAGON(KY)  (MEDAGLIA D’ORO x DUBAI MILLENNIUM (GB) x EL GRAN SENOR)  bred and trained by yunkai (20%)  Odds: 16-1

Dragon is undefeated in three starts and has yet to even see a horse in front of her, having taken them all wire to wire, and she’s a stakes winner.  That’s the good news.  The competition she’s been facing, however, has been very weak.  The only large field she’s seen came in her first race, but half of that field still hasn’t earned a nickel in purses yet.  While her speed figures jumped by nearly 20 point when she stretched out from five furlongs to seven and a half, she still hasn’t hit an 80.  That makes her the only one in the race.  She does have very strong connections.  Yunkai is part of the Given Stables, which is part of the GR Simsters.

Australia, New Zealand, and Far East

This team brings in a filly that absolutely towers over the field in earnings.  They also bring in the two longest shots in the field.

Post 3:  DEHERE THAT(KY)  (DEHERE x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT)  bred and trained by snappa6 (19%)   Odds: 5-1

I have been playing this game since January 1^st, 1970.  It says so right under my name in the message boards.  In those 37 years, my horses have earned, I would estimate off the top of my head, about $50,000 in purses.  This filly is closing in on a half million dollars after four races.  A large chunk of that came in the owner-restricted $500,000 Smackdown series, where she easily handled a field that appears tougher than this.  She gets another one with similar restrictions today. If this race were only one turn, she might have been odds-on, but today she tries two turns for the first time.  The breeding says that might make her faster.  Two year olds can get better just by getting older, and it’s worth noting that she has had the longest time off in the race.  She may be even faster than her last race indicates.  Snappa6, of the Snappa Stables, running without a residency affiliation, has to love these restricted Grade 1 races.

Post 1:  UNION DE DIXIE(KY)  (DIXIE UNION x WILD AGAIN x STORM CAT)  bred and trained by astinator7 (31%)  Odds: 8-1

She showed a big improvement last time to a figure that makes her one to watch here.  The big question is to what to attribute the improvement.  It was her first route.  That’s good: today’s race is the same distance.  It was her first on a sloppy track.  That’s not so good: today’s race is on a fast track.  It was her first try in stakes company.  Good.  It came against a small and undistinguished field.  Not so good.  Such is life when handicapping two year olds.  At the least she should appreciate the likely speed duel and comes from an EAAA Residency barn with an outlandish winning percentage.

Post 5:  LITTLE GUINEA PIG(MD)  (POLISH MINER x DRACULA (AUS) x STAFF WRITER)  bred and trained by flemington (7%)   Odds: 27-1

She seems likely to be very prominent early here.  She’s undefeated after two races, and her figures make her more likely a contender here than the oddsmakers give her credit for.  After only two races, odds are based as much on breeding than on performance, and her breeding is modest compared to many others in here.  While undefeated, she really hasn’t beaten much, so maybe longish odds are justified.  The first horse I felt emotionally attached to, Staff Riot, was a son of Staff Writer, so I will be rooting for the breeding.  Barn is part of the EAAA Residency.

Post 10:  WHIRLWIND DANCER(CAN)  (DANCE TO DESTINY x REGAL INTENTION x AHMAD(ARG))  bred and trained by morrighan (5%)  Odds: 49-1

Being chosen for a prestigious race like this is quite an honor.  Oddsmakers are hoping this EAAA Residency barn will appreciate the honor and not feel insulted by the long odds.  I’m guessing this barn is not discouraged by the odds.  Dancer crushed a large field last time at over 30-1 odds.  She might be trailing the entire field early, but this late closer gets a likely duel of cheap speed to run at and gets her first ride from a top-tier jockey.  Bold pick by the eastern hemisphere team.

Europe and Scandinavia (Isn’t Scandinavia part of Europe?)

While the other teams are made up of favorites and longshots, the Europeans have chosen a strong team of midlevel contenders.  Not a longshot in the bunch, and every one with a shot to win.  With three of their runners making their first starts at the distance, it’s tough to know just what to expect.

Post 6:  AL FOREST(KY)  (GOOD REWARD x DANZIG x A.P. INDY)  bred and trained by zielissimo (14%)  Odds: 7-1

Dam was a stakes winning sprinter, and it’s too early in freshman sire Good Reward’s career to see much evidence that he adds stamina to a pedigree.  With that background, this one tries a route for the first time.  She’s done well as a sprinter.  With three wins s, she has almost half of the European team’s wins.  She beat a tough field in a listed stakes and finished one and a half lengths behind the winner in the Grade III Butterfly Futurity, beating today’s teammate Demonic Presence by over a length.  She joins longshot Whirlwind Dancer as the two deepest closers in the race, so if she takes to the two turns, she’ll be coming late.  Barn is part of Rafa Stables and is a member of Minnesota Downs Residency.

Post 11:  DEMONIC PRESENCE(KY)  (VICTORY GALLOP x MINESHAFT x POLISH NUMBERS)  bred and trained by taicheska (14%)  Odds: 8-1

Since finishing behind teammate Al Forest in the Grade III Butterfly, she’s made two changes and has been making big improvements.  The first change is that she dropped in class to allowance and listed stakes level.  She faced much weaker competition in those races than she sees today, so if that’s the reason for the improvement, it doesn’t bode well for the filly.  The other change is more encouraging: She switched to routes.  There is reason to be optimistic that this change was the more powerful factor.  Victory Gallop’s get have done better at routes than at sprints.  She should be able to sit just off the early pace and hope to run them down in the stretch.  Barn is from the EAAA Residency.

Post 9:  NAMANTI(KY)  (CAT THIEF x A.P. INDY x DIXIELAND BAND)  bred and trained by har  (14%)  Odds: 8-1

Like the trainer of Al Forest, har is part of the Rafa Stables and is part of the Northwest Racing Circuit Residency, and like Al Forest, Namanti makes her first start at around two turns today.  Cat Thief usually does better with sprinters; A.P. Indy is legendary with routers.  Namanti’s been in the money five times in her six starts, but only has one victory.  She does have the advantage, if it is one, of having a trip over the track last time out.  Barn makes a curious choice of jockeys.  With many top jockeys brought in for this day and with local legends Friar and Bowen available, the barn opts for a capable but unspectacular rider. 

Post 12:  WAKI HERAT(JPN)  (STRAVINSKY x MISWAKI x HERAT)  bred and trained by racinpogs (18%)  Odds: 8-1

After winning in her debut, she was third against a respectable stakes field and then ran a decent fifth against a very tough Grade II field.  Most recently, she ran a fast closing third against the boys in a listed stakes.  That race was a half furlong shorter that today’s race, and she should just get better by having that extra 110 yards.  With the one for four lifetime record, and being the lowest ranked European entry she may be easy to overlook.   That would be a mistake.  Oddly enough, in a competition between parts of the world, there is only one filly bred outside the United States.  And that one is bred in Asia and races for the Europeans.  Barn is part of the Pogo Racing Stables and is in the EAAA Residency.

Summary:

This is such a tough race to predict, with so many of these babies being so lightly raced and so many of them trying this class and distance for the first time.  Let’s be ecumenical and pick a trifecta of one from each team:  Dehere That / Waki Herat / Sabbath Point.