Dance Seeker Heads Betting in Ladies Turf Sprint

The World Cup brings the turf fillies and mares to Ohio, and the action starts here in race ten with the running of the World Cup Ladies Turf Sprint over six furlongs on a perfectly prepared firm surface. A field of twelve fillies and mares will fight it out for the half million dollar purse. Dance Seeker is the public elect, while World of Trouble, Ploy, Eye of the World and Reina Jade loom as the main dangers.

Working through the field in racebook order:

Curley starts from the inside gate and although this recent claiming mare appears to be facing a Herculean task in this company, she does line up with a couple of consecutive wins for her new stable. Earlier trainers had significant results with her while keeping her at a lower standard on the dirt, while current connections look likely to enjoy plenty of success on the grass. This is a monumental leap in class, but she’s two wins from three on this surface and rharfo has certainly secured a bargain in the now five year old scratchbred daughter of King’s Best / Tailings / National Assembly. The thought of a horse jumping straight from Starter Allowance to Grade 1 is mind boggling, and it’s hard to see her as a genuine winning chance, but don’t be surprised if Curley gives plenty of cheek early, and eventually beats home more runners than finish ahead of her.

I Think I Can exits from barrier 2 and as a lightly raced five year old, she attempts an unattainable feat this week. Badly beaten in a longer allowance last time out, she fell short over this trip in a 600k cpu restricted allowance two stats back. tommyvee has placed her well to establish that this surface and distance are her forte, but it’s probably not too harsh to suggest that connections are primarily here for the party. I Think I Can is a five year old daughter of obscure NY based sire Calumar, based on the slightly more high profile Prospect Flap (Northern Prospect / Vaguely Noble). A winner of a maiden and two allowances from nine runs, a leap of this magnitude is more than daunting. Love her name though, as it predictably invites the expected final word. I Think You Can’t.

More Than His alights from gate 3. A versatile four year old mare with eighty percent of her bank of almost $400k coming from the dirt, she nevertheless is no slouch on the grass, having finished ITM in four of five previous runs on the surface. Not a regular entrant against the upper echelon, she did manage to finish fourth just over a year ago in New York’s G1-Sister Helen Stakes, whilst arguably her career highlight was one start earlier when victorious in the G3-Snaggin Wagon Stakes. This year’s two wins from seven have both been on the grass, but in allowance and ungraded races. A daughter of More Than Ready, based on His Seas (Seattle Slew/Wild Again), a dual Grade 3 winner, More Than His has won eight from twenty seven for breeder / trainer freddurst, and although she needs to find a bit more to be competitive with a few here who have achieved more, connections can expect her once again to run her usual honest race.

World of Trouble has drawn 4 and lines up for this following three convincing performances against the similar class of opponent she encounters this weekend. Her most recent victory, three starts back in Hong Kong’s G3-Kaz Hayashi Sprint Cup was followed by a half length third in the G1-Smackdown III, and a close up fourth in the G2-Battle of Saratoga Stakes, those two races being over this weeks journey. Her thirty eight start career has seen her victorious on ten occasions (with a further ten second placings), while accumulating just under a million dollars in earnings. She began her career on the dirt, where she was stakes placed at two. Her three year old year was, in hindsight, forgettable, although she was stakes placed thee times while mixing surfaces. Since owner / breeder zwylde turned her exclusively into a turfer since turning four, her career has blossomed and a sub-par performance has become a rare anomaly.  Bred in the purple, World of Trouble is a scratchbred carrying the lines of Giant’s Causeway / Fappiano / Lyphard. She’s twice been in the money at this highest level, and it would come as no surprise to see her achieve a well deserved Grade 1 title.

Dance Seeker jumps from 5 and shapes as the one they have to beat. She’s won four graded races from her last half dozen, and ran a very close second in the G1- Smackdown III two starts ago. Clearly top qualifier for the event, and carrying the bookmaker’s nod at 7/2, she’s the one all the opposing riders will be formulating tactics around. A winner of 16 of her lifetime 28 starts, and with a million and a half in the bank, she’s racing in superlative form recently, stringing together Graded victories and triple digit speed ratings. After beginning life as a competitive dirt runner, owner / breeder rockriver switched her to the grass where she won her first seven attempts, including two ungraded and two graded stakes. She’s continued to perform at that top level since, with her career highlight to date being victory seventeen months ago in the G1-The Queensland Turf Filly Special. Dance Seeker is a scratchbred daughter of Seeking The Gold / Northern Dancer / Blushing Groom, and most of the astute judges attending this strong meet will be expecting her to storm home from beyond midfield and to record her second Grade 1 in this event.

From gate 6 emerges Druj In Dubai, a three year old filly unproven at anywhere near this level, but who adds a good bit of mystery given her excellent strike rate and her perfect record on the grass. sabbath has chosen to keep her primarily in the allowance ranks, despite at one stage of her career, stringing together five consecutive wins. A daughter of E Dubai from three time race winning mare Sebring (Dubai Millennium / Blushing Groom), she’s the third consecutive stakes placed offspring of her dam. Strangely, given her bloodlines, she had her first thirteen starts on the dirt, winning eight of them, but it’s her most recent outing which suggests she may be a far better chance than a cursory glance at the formguide would indicate. On a rain affected track, she obliterated a smart allowance field which contained three black type winners, beating home Lenshaft, (a Grade 2 winner), untroubled by four lengths. Druj in Dubai looms as a real wild card in this event and the oddsmakers are giving her a fair degree of credence, keeping her relatively safe at 13/1.

Ermington Kid lines up in barrier 7 and first inspection indicates that she should really struggle at this level. She’s had four starts for veeman5 since changing hands for more than $3 million. They were all at allowance level, with a second placing the best result and 95 her best speed rating for new connections. Her lifetime stats are a bit more impressive however, with seven wins from twenty six and just shy of $300k in the bank. Quality wise her best results are a couple of ungraded placings as a three year old and it would come as some surprise to see her handle the massive class jump here. Ermington Kid is a four year old daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, from Rainbow Theatre (Theatrical / Rainbow Quest) a lightly raced winner of one and producer of nothing else of note to date. The oddsmakers are not being overly generous, offering just 10/1, but as an investor I’m afraid I’d be wanting a bit more than that.

From 8 comes Eye of the World, a three year old filly in good but luckless recent touch, and with the advantage of a close up black type second in her only tilt against the open aged brigade. She’s chosen a tough assignment to try and turn around the frustration of three seconds from her last six trips to the track, but she didn’t fail by much in the three year old G1-Smackdown III. Her last start effort was better than it looks on paper, beaten less than two lengths when fourth in the G3-Blonde And Freckled Handicap, returning a career best 104 speed figure. A Grade 3 winner at just her second start as a two year old, perhaps the highlight of her career thus far came back in May of this year, when she took out the G3-Latonia Special. Since then, as mentioned earlier, she’s been right in the mix without tasting victory. Of some concern is the fact that she was unimpressive in her only previous Grade 1 attempt, but perhaps that came too early. Eye of the World is a daughter of Dubawi from five times winning mare Sack The Castle (Sakhee / Kingmambo), bred by owner / trainer shamran7. She’s still improving, the bookmakers think she’s a real threat and she must, as usual, be rated a real chance.

Stall 9 is the starting slot for Reina Jade, a three year old filly up against the older brigade but with immediate recent evidence that she should have no problem in that respect. She registered an astounding 109 last start when third, just a length off the winner. A difficult race to interpret as it was on a rain affected dirt surface, but her third the start before in the three year old G1-Smackdown III indicates there’s not a lot between the cream of three year old fillies lining up this week. Boasting a fifty percent win strike rate, including a couple of black type wins earlier in her career, her last two have established her credentials under these conditions. A scratchbred filly, she carries the blood of Giant’s Causeway / Danzig / Unbridled and owner / breeder 2aussie can confidently expect Reina Jade to be competing with the best far into the future. She’s hard to take a line on in this particular event, but with her last two being ITM’s in Grade 1 and 2 races, and with the potential displayed last time out, it would be foolish indeed to underestimate her chances.

Gate 10 is the starting position for Lightseeker, recent winner of the three year old G1-Smackdown III, stepping up to take on the older mares for the first time this week. On recent form she’s an undeniable chance, having won four of her last seven, including the aforementioned Grade 1. This time of year tends to separate the wheat from the chaff, as the three year olds move up to determine their ability to handle open aged company. It’s highly unlikely that this one will fail to make the step, and she’s sure to be on her game this weekend when she takes on this talented set of older mares. lenny has guided his three year old scratchbred daughter of North Light / Awesome Again / Seeking the Gold to seven victories in her dozen starts, collecting just shy of a million dollars in purses along the way. A graded winner against the boys as a two year old, advancing to grade one winner against her peers recently, she looms as a genuine chance once again. Her last start minor ‘glitch’ in the G3-Blonde and Freckled Handicap perhaps explains the otherwise over generous offering of 10/1 about Lightseeker’s chances.

Drawn in barrier 11 is Green Again, seemingly out of her depth here, but a four year old who, when she sets her mind to it, can run the odd decent race. She’s struggled a bit in her recent black type appearances, hence the nice odds of 14/1 on offer this week, but with half a dozen stakes ITM’s on the CV, her record is far from the worst in the event. Hard to rate her as a serious contender against some genuine quality opposition, but a repeat of her 1.09.6 recorded in NSW back in January could see her contributing to the finish. Green Again is an inexpensive scratchbred carrying Desert Style / Citidancer / Never So Bold blood and trainer / breeder bbudgies is likely to be looking on more in hope than in expectation. If she’s at the top of her game, she’s capable off adding to the mix.

 The outside gate will be occupied by Ploy, a quality five year old mare who has brought home a check each time out in her last six starts, all of which were against graded opposition. Three starts back she posted her most recent victory, taking out the five furlong G2-Triangular Sprint Cup, while her other five recent high level appearances have seen her finish no further than three lengths from the winner. A winner of more than a million dollars throughout her career, she was a stakeswinner at two, multi-stakes at three and multiple Graded winner at four. Grade 1 races tend to be won by Grade 1 horses, and she’s achieved that milestone previously, having collected the winners check last November in the G1-The 7^th running of The Tryptich Memorial. Ploy is an inexpensive scratchbred daughter of Exploit / Lord at War / Bold Ruckus. Her front running style may be unsuited by her wide barrier, but she’ll be masterfully ridden by an outstanding hoop. She’s given trainer / breeder tcrowell a magnificent return on investment thus far, and would surprise nobody if she were to add this event to her CV.

Summary:  I can’t go past the favorite as she ticks all the boxes. Dance Seeker to win. Reina Jade may be the up and comer, so I’ll put her in for second, while Ploy never runs a bad race against top company. She’s my third pick. World of Trouble, Eye of the World and Lightseeker are all capable of winning without surprising. Druj in Dubai could be the surprise packet. Ermington Kid has ability but, to me at least, does not represent value. Green Again could run a better race than her price suggests and Curley, if successful, would provide a real fairytale ending. I can see More Than His running a decent race, but falling a bit short while I Think I Can is my tip to run last.