Tough, Tough Call in Connecticut
The seventh running of
Three year old racing has a special rhythm. Horses will extend themselves in order to make the Triple Tiara fields, the best will run in one or more of them, and then frequently go off form from the exertion. In mid-September, they can begin to regain that form.
A case in point came last year. Bluegrass Oaks winner Armed With Money lost her races following the Oaks and came to the Little Evil as a 9-1 longshot. Her win here began a five race win streak, all in graded affairs, that make her an almost certain Hall of Famer.
The winners in 2004 and 2005 were noncompetitive entrants in Triple Tiara races, and many previous winners have prepped for this race with poor wins in lower class races. Handicappers have found that predicting the finish in The Little Evil has been more than a little evil.
Here is a look at this year’s field:
- MISS YOU HATE YOU(ENG) (
Bid but hung going longer to finish second in a DelPenn stakes last time. None of her three wins have come in stakes races, much less graded stakes, but this shrewd trainer does not feel it necessary to place this filly conventionally. She began her career (successfully) in an allowance race. Shorter distance will help, and she has run speed figures that make her competitive here.
- WINTER DREAMS(KY) (AFLEET ALEX x NIJINSKY II x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by sunshine34 (15%) Odds: 8-1
She faded pretty badly last time in a Smackdown stakes, but she’s done that before only to win her next outing. None of her four wins came in stakes and her only previous graded start was egregiously poor, but if she can repeat the allowance effort from just two races back, she should be a factor.
- INDESCRIBABLE(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x MR. PROSPECTOR x KALPHARD(FR)) bred and trained by babycolt (13%) Odds: 39-1
Taffy issued a recent press release that she has returned and is getting married. A win from this longshot would make that pronouncement indescribably loud. Why Indescribable is a longshot is too easy; let’s find the positives. Her last race at this distance was her best. She was a fast closing second in a stakes. That same race shows she can run a pressing style and that has both worked in prior editions of the Little Evil and there should be a pace to run at. Shortening up from a mile and a half should be a welcome relief for this filly.
- SAUJON(KY) (
She’s been out of the money since her very nice showing in the Middle Flower, but as we noted earlier, this is the time when those runners start to return to form. While she’s in the half of the field that hasn’t cracked 100 for speed figures, she’s come close, and she has won three listed stakes. Tempting odds on a filly with a huge chance here. As a bonus, she picks up the leading jockey, three time Little Evil winner, and blues diva Irma Thomas.
- FART NO MORE(KY) (BRAHMS x PENTELICUS x BOLD RULER) bred and trained by dundey4 (16%) Odds: 5-1
This unfortunately named filly has been installed as the favorite, and with eight wins (three in stakes) in 14 starts, she would be no surprise here. She’s tried graded stakes three other times, never with much success, but this is a field, with only one filly ranked in the top forty, that doesn’t have much past success in graded stakes. This Bean-o powered runner finished just behind Zarallana two races back in a Grade I Smackdown stakes, and it’s a tough choice between them.
- BIG COZZ(KY) (COZZENE x BERING(GB) x ZABEEL(NZ)) bred and trained by bigeasy (6%) Odds: 33-1
Last April this filly ran a very nice third in the Grade I Fool and His Money Soon Part Stakes. Anyone who has backed her since has been parted from his money. Jockeys come in with clean goggles by wiring the field or by showing up after the dirt has settled. Unfortunately, her jocks’ clean goggles have meant bad news. Why should today be the day? In 2005, Genuine Flower ran 10th in the Middle Flower and came back to win this race. In 2004, was 15th in the Bluegrass Oaks and came back to win this race. In 2007, Big Cozz ran 13th in the Middle Flower and 12th in the Chestnut. ‘Nuff said.
- BELLE’S MEOW(MD) (PARKER’S STORM CAT x
It took her nine races to break her maiden, and after 22 races she still has only three wins. That would be a wonderful winning percentage for a trainer as poor as me, but it’s a bit light for a graded stakes runner. The encouraging news is she may simply be a late developer. She’s been improving by leaps and bounds lately and the barn felt they found a weak field when they entered her late Tuesday night. She may be just about to hit her top form in her most challenging race.
Third choice in the odds, she’s the only one here that ran a triple digit speed figure last time. Lightly raced, with four wins in just nine starts, she makes her graded debut here. She looks like the one to beat. The only question here is how she will handle the class rise. While on paper this is not the strongest Grade III field, some horses simply don’t run well at the higher levels. When we turn over our 8-ball it says, “All systems go.” That sounds pretty good.
- THE ANTIDOTE(IRE) (
The knee-jerk reaction is to dismiss runners at odds like these, but when Lenny trains we need to look closer. It took her six races to break her maiden, but she’s undefeated in her most recent three races. She makes a huge class jump and will need a huge increase in her speed figures to be a factor here, but with this expensive breeding and her connections, it’s a possibility.
- DANCE THE BREEZE(IRE) (GENEROUS(IRE) x TAKE ME OUT x TONY BIN(IRE)) bred and trained by taita15 (6%) Odds: 20-1
After an outstanding run late last year into the beginning of this year, where she had four wins and a second in five races, she cooled off badly. In a streak of four races she finished in front of a total of seven horses. The barn wisely dropped her to allowance level last time and she responded with the best race of her young career. On the one hand, she may merely be showing that she’s an allowance horse at best; on the other, she may have returned to that early form. As of mid-February she sure looked like she belonged at this level.
- MCFLY(FR) (NUMEROUS x SILVER HAWK x ARCTIC TERN) bred and trained by bbrs (10%) Odds: 9-1
Breeding guru Knightmare shows how to get a graded runner by using some modestly priced breeding lines. McFly began her career with four wins and two seconds culminating in just missing a win in the Grade I Leopard in the middle of May. Tough races take their toll, and she fell into a steep decline of form. Crafty trainer gives her a couple months break. If she has regained her Leopard form, she is not to be ignored here.
- BALANCE(KY) (THUNDER GULCH x KRIS S. x
She has a stakes win and a decent third in a Grade III three months ago, and she’s in the money in about half of her races, so she may well pick up a check, but with top speed figures some ten points below others in here, she seems more likely headed for a minor award than a top one. She will likely contribute to some early pace.
- NAILED TOTHE CROSS(MD) (NOT FOR LOVE x SAINT BALLADO x CLEVER TRICK) bred and trained by profitthis (10%) Odds: 10-1
She was more than decent in her lone Graded try, a second in the Timber Stakes – about nine lengths ahead of Balance, and she surpassed the century speed figure mark in a listed stakes two back against a very tough field. But then she threw in a clunker last time against another tough field in an open allowance. Throw that race out, or forgive it for whatever reason you can name, or just accidentally not look at it, and we have another one with a legitimate shot.
- ZARALLANA(IRE) (EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FUSAICHI PEGASUS) bred and trained by sonsierra (14%) Odds: 5-1
This one is very reminiscent of Armed With Money from last year. That one had won the Bluegrass Oaks – Zarallana finished third. AWM was the highest ranked filly in the race – Zarallana is ranked tenth and the second highest ranked filly here is 42nd. AWM came in with more than questionable form – Zarallana hasn’t been close in her last two. It’s seldom we say that poor current form is a positive handicapping angle, so let’s not this time either. In fact, her last two losses come complete with excuses: last time was too long and the one before that was against much better than she faces today. Now she’s back to her best distance and comes with a racing history that towers over the rest of the field.
Summary. This race has been hard to pick every year, and with so many here that make sense, this may be the toughest year yet. I’m sure we can come up with an amusing exacta using the numbers 5 and 10 fillies, here are my picks: Saujon /