Royal Navy Ship Sets Sail Towards Repeat in Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile

Breeders’ Bowl Day One includes the Dirt Mile which will be run at 2:10:00 PM Game Time on Friday the 2^nd.  The first day’s runners lucked out in getting fast/firm tracks as rain will settle in over the Kentucky track overnight and soften things up for the Saturday races.  Like all the other Breeders’ Bowl races the Dirt Mile attracted a full field of fourteen including last season’s winner Royal Navy Ship and third place finisher Coward’s Punch.  But there are a slew of new challengers in what is a very competitive field.  Let’s take a look.

 

#1 Takodana                                                      16/1

Leading off this year’s Dirt Mile field is one of two three year olds to make the field.  Takodana is the more favored of the two but only slightly.  This colt showed a tremendous amount of promise early on and ended up on the Bluegrass Derby conveyor belt this spring.  He skipped listeds to make his stakes debut in the Buccaneeer Derby (G3) where he closed from midpack to finish second.  Then it was on to a Derby Lock Prep in Arkansas where Takodana finished off the board for the first (and so far only) time in his career.  After experimenting distance wise Takodana found himself going a straight mile.  He’s run that distance in his last three starts and won them all, each more impressive than the last.  He finally got his stakes win in August when he galloped around a thirteen horse field to win by three lengths with an eye-popping 119 speed.  He moved up to a G2 last time and improved his speed to a 120 with a nearly two length advantage at the wire.  Takodana is a scratchbred War Front x Seeking the Gold x Awesome Again.

 

#2 Scat’s Roar                                                    6/1

According to his trainer, Scat’s Roar was destined to be a miler.  Trotter1 has developed this family and recalls the hemare to his Breeders’ Bowl runner fondly.  Cat’s Roar was an Unbridled’s Song x Storm Cat horse who was graded placed three times in his career (with two of those losses coming at less than a length) but all three graded runs were in dirt miles.  Scat’s Roar was from the last crop of two year olds by Scat Daddy.  The name choice of Scat’s Roar “made perfect sense” recalls trotter1.  Scat’s Roar made his debut sprinting but won in his second start going a mile.  Indeed all ten of this horse’s wins have come at that distance.  As a four year old Scat’s Roar hit the board in three straight graded races topped off by the Cosmopolitan Mile behind the smart runner River of Doubt.  Scat’s Roar has really come into himself this season.  He won his first graded stakes in the Grade Three Not Far Stakes with an eye popping 121 speed.  Trainer trotter1 felt that he was due to bounce after that start but entered Scat’s Roar in another G3 to see and he was right, his colt needed an easier spot after that big effort.  He rebounded by taking the Cosmopolitan Mile (G1) over last season’s rival River of Doubt as well as top contenders here like Angerwall and Wall I Built with another top effort of 118 speed.  “his next two starts in the Tete Galactic Dirt Challenge and an open allowance race respectively, both victories, both cherry picked preps for the BB Mile” says trotter1.  He continues “While I respect the chances of every horse in this field, I feel if Scat’s Roar gets enough pace in front of him, and I think he will, could be tough to beat here, or at least good enough to gain a share of the top three spots.  I believe he is set up to be at his best on BB Day.  I did my best with him, the rest is up to him and the racing gods.”

 

#3 Dance Now                                                   9/1

Some horses do well off long layoffs.  Dance Now proved he could fire big off a layoff in his first start this year, the Equinics Dirt Mile where he ran the best race of his career to win with a 117 speed.  He hadn’t started since the previous November when he ran a strong second in a grade three where he ran a 118 speed.  Most trainers would have persevered with a horse in top form but trainer scharenberg decided to point for that big race and it paid off brilliantly.  The six year old son of Tiznow out of a Storm Cat x Forty Niner mare is one of three stakes winners for his dam.  His form dramatically improved when he was gelded as a four year old and became a consistent stakes and graded runner.  Dance Now bounced a bit coming out of the huge Equinics run.  He was off the board in two graded stakes races before taking a whole five months to train just for this spot.

 

 

#4 Angerwall                                                      11/1

Angerwall started the year off strong with a win in the Grade Three Jimmy Pasqual followed by a huge score in the February Stakes, a Grade One.  This front running six year old tried to go for a threepeat in the Cosmopolitan Mile but was run down late by Scat’s Roar.  In those three races Angerwall ran speeds of 118, 115 and 115 respectively.  His two most recent races have not been nearly as successful.  He tried dropping back to sprints in a grade one but he failed to make the lead and faded to twelfth.  Returning to a mile in September he found himself second early on without ever really being close to the lead and again faded.  Angerwall was gelded in February of 2017 and seven of his twelve wins have come since that equipment change including all of his stakes and graded victories.  He’s a scratchbred son of Street Cry x Deputy Minister x Alydar.

 

#5 Paynterpicture                                                            19/1

Paynterpicture is the other three year old in the field.  He enters riding a three race win streak which include a listed and a grade two victory.  The grade two – the La Holla Stakes for three year olds saw him run a career best speed of 116 and with this spot in mind he dropped down to an allowance race to prevent a bounce.  He won that allowance in facile style with a 113 speed.  He tends to drop about four to five lengths off the lead before pouncing on the leaders and pulling away in the stretch.  He’s by Paynter out of the grade one winning Dubai Millenium x Northern Dancer mare Mudreach’s FNAS.  Now for the really cool part.  Last year player theduke sprung a major upset with a colt named Royal Navy Flag.  The Gold Ship colt won by closing stoutly through the stretch to just get up at 23/1.  Royal Navy Flag is a half brother to Paynterpicutre.  How cool would it be for a mare to take back-to-back running of a big race – a Breeders’ Bowl race no less?!?  Paynterpicture is coming into this spot in better form than his older brother did last year.

 

#6 Wobbles Cadet                                                           7/1

 

Trainer cadet believes he has a big chance in this race with Wobbles Cadet.  He says he “was sweating not getting into the field sitting at 14^th for over a week” but “this guy is coming along fabulously and the morning line shows it!”  Wobbles Cadet has run a 119 speed three times in his career – all three races were run at a mile.  One was a listed and two were grade threes and all resulted in big wins.  The last of those wins was back in April in New York when he won the Chester West Handicap.  Traditionally the local prep for the Cosmopolitan Mile, the Chester West often attracts very solid fields but sometimes a big win so close to another big race (the two are about a month apart) can knock a horse out which is what happened to Wobbles Cadet.  He just missed in the Grade Two Middle Ground Mile, losing by a half length with a 116 speed behind Tales of Hearts whom he meets here again.  Cadet’s strategy after the Middle Ground was to run in a prep at 8.5f.  He says “the last race was purely a prep to keep him fresh in my classic .80 effort, then return three weeks later and BOOM! His run at less than full effort (he finished fifth with a 114 speed) really shows he is feeling good and should get back to a 119 rating.  I just hope its good enough.”  Of cadet’s six Breeders’ Bowl efforts he is most confidant in this colt to put forth a top effort.  He has a lot of respect for Scat’s Roar who will also be carrying the banner for the Empire State Residency.  Wobbles Cadet is a son of Shamardal out of the grade three winning Carson City x Irish River mare Car Funking.  His name was inspired by wobbler syndrome (or wobbles) a neurologic condition that gives a horse an uncoordinated gait.  Sire Shamardal suffered from the syndrome as a young horse but went on to be a successful race horse and sire.

 

#7 Walls I Built                                                   8/1

Walls I Built was a strong three year old who turned into a great older runner after receiving the unkindest cut.  Gelding seems to have put this horse’s head on straight and his five year old campaign has been his strongest yet.  All five of his starts have been graded dirt miles and he’s hit the board in four of them.  He scored the biggest victory of his career in the Grade Two Sand Castle Godolphin Mile in March, taking the big race wire to wire with a 121 speed.  Interestingly the only other race he lead early on was his most recent run and that was the race where he failed to hit the board.  He was second in the Grade One February Stakes and third in the Cosmopolitan Mile behind Scat’s Roar and Angerwall after battling for the early lead in second.  He also finished second in another G2 using a similar strategy.  With only five starts this year he is hardly over raced and that may be to his advantage with others being a little more worn out after long campaigns.  And he has shown that he can pop the big speeds.  He’s a scratchbred son of Congrats x Halo x Deputy Minister.  That’s a pretty classy backend and Congrats is one of my personal favorite underused sires.  He can throw big horses in real life and he can do it in the sim.

 

#8 Ima So Lucky                                                                                12/1

Ima So Lucky has not run a one mile race since April of 2017.  He’s run seven times at that distance with only a maiden win to his credit.  He’s been knocking heads with some of the bigger names in the older division but since last November he has accounted for two grade three wins and a grade two with an average speed of 117.3 in those wins.  All three races came at a mile and a sixteenth with the last one coming in May.  He’s only had two starts since, one in July and the next on September 1^st and both were disappointing efforts.  The five year old son of Lookin at Lucky out of Grade Three winner Irreversible, by Giant’s Causeway x Mr. Prospector.  He is a half brother to Empire Causeway, a three time grade one winner on the grass including one grade one win going a mile.  Can Ima So Lucky be so lucky as to shorten up and score the biggest win of his career?

 

#9 Tales of Hearts                                                            12/1

As mentioned above Congrats is one of my favorite value sim sires and with two runners in the Dirt Mile players might begin to see why.  Tales of Hearts is another scratchbred by that sire with a classy Seattle Slew x Secretariat backend.  This five year old won the first graded stakes race of his career on December 1^st of 2017 and only ran three more times between that race and this start.  After two unsuccessful graded tries Tales of Hearts was given over four months on holiday until he returned on September 9^th with a big win in the Grade Two Middle Ground Mile.  He closed from dead last that day to run down fellow entrant Wobbles Cadet by a half length with a 116 speed.  Also finishing behind him that day were two other entrants in this spot.  Going almost two months to this start should give Tales of Hearts enough time to recover from that massive effort.

 

#10 Coward’s Punch                                                       7/1

Coward’s Punch has run in exactly one one mile dirt race in his career.  It was this race last year and he finished a strong third, beaten only two lengths.  All eighteen of his other races have come at longer distances.  He’s run well this year, winning two grade threes at a mile and one sixteenth and adding two seconds from six starts.  It is difficult to say that he came into this race in better form last season when his most recent win came with a 123 speed figure attached but in 2017 he’d won three graded races, including a g1 with a 120 speed.  It’s really hard to know what to make of this five year old scratchbred by Smart Strike x Nureyev x Secretariat.  He does have some early speed but has shown he doesn’t need to be on the lead from the get go to be effective.

 

#11 Royal Navy Ship                                                        16/1

The defending champion may be 16/1 but that is more respect than he received last year.  Theduke’s Royal Navy Ship has only run a mile on the dirt once since that big victory, instead trying both shorter and longer including a foray into the Sand Castle Classic at a mile and one quarter.  He’s also run twice on the turf this year.  Last season he prepped for this race with a win in a turf sprint allowance and it looks like theduke tried for the same magic before the Sand Castel and again before this race.  This year his prep was a seven and one half furlong turf race (the same as last season) but instead of an allowance he went for a Japan-bred Local Championship.  He dominated that field, coming from mid-pack to win going away with a 114 speed.  That was his second fastest speed this year.  The fastest came in the Grade Two Lil’ Leprechaun Mile back in July, his only dirt mile start where he finished second with a 115 speed.  As mentioned above Royal Navy Ship is not theduke’s only representative in this race and it is not the only representative for his dam Mudreachs FNAS.  Both trainer and mare have Royal Navy Ship’s three year old half brother Paynterpicture going as well.

 

#12 Outback Alias                                                            8/1

How tough is this field?  “Looking at threats there will be 13 of them” says kyogle, trainer of Outback Alias.  “I guess I’m like most with a runner.  It’s virtually impossible to be confident, but there won’t be a bad horse in the race, so everyone is entitled to be hopeful.”  Outback Alias is a four year old scratchbred son of Giant’s Causeway x Broad Brush x Mr. Prospector and the pedigrees don’t come much bluer than that.  He had a three race win streak broken in his most recent start, a nine furlong grade two.  Prior to that he won the Grade Two Lil’ Leprechaun Mile over last year’s BB Dirt Mile winner Royal Navy Flag a grade three and a listed.  His speeds were 122, 120 and 118 respectively in those races.  Going a mile Outback Alias has a record of 7-6-1-0 with the only loss coming in a listed by a head.  This may be the sleeper horse of the field.  He is a miler through and through and big mile races don’t come up often in the game.  Kyogle mentions two threats specifically, Scat’s Roar and Takodona but he says “I’d probably should wish my opposition the best of luck….but I won’t!”  I don’t blame him with a chance like Outback Alias I’d want all the luck for myself too.

 

#13 Wickedsenseofhumor                                           11/1

In a field full of blue blooded scratchbreds Wickedsenseofhumor may take the cake.  The Four year old colt is Distorted Humor x Deputy x Minister x Danzig.  He has run exactly two races at a mile on the dirt and he’s won them both but the most recent came in August of 2017 in an allowance.  He’s matured into a very nice four year old with two grade two wins on the year and a grade one second in his most recent start.  The only trouble?  All three of those races came at a mile and one eighth.  His three best races have seen him run two 119 speeds and a 117.  He’s fast and he’s classy but he’s unfortunately caught between distances for the Breeders’ Bowl.  He has tried a mile and one quarter and been unsuccessful so the dice are rolled in the Dirt Mile to see what comes up.  Of course Coward’s Punch followed a similar path last year and finished a strong third in the gamble.  His biggest wins have seen him go out and get a clear lead early on and put some distance between himself and the rest of the field and run them off their feet.

 

#14 Exceptional Value                                                    12/1

Exceptional Value sports the fastest 2018 speed of any entrant of the field.  He ran a 124 going a mile and one sixteenth in the Grade Two Sand Dimas Stakes back in July.  He also rana 123 in his prior run, a listed at the same distance.  After starting his career on the turf he’s been a bang up dirt runner with four wins from eight starts along with two seconds and a third.  He was second in a G1 going nine fulrongs back in September and then ran back four weeks later to finish fourth.  He is 3-1-1-1 in dirt mile races but all were allowance races.  He gets his name from his dam Exceptionalism (Tapit x Deputy Minister) but also likely from a good deal on his sire Hard Spun.  Exceptionalism was a graded placed stakes winner who did all her running on the grass.  Her first foal is the English Channel mare Mutant Powers who has won four grade one races going a mile on the grass.  Exceptional Value’s two year old by Churchill is already a stakes winner as well.

 

Good luck to all!