The TWILIGHT PASS Challenge,Newmarket 13 furlongs sloppy dirt f3yo+

Hello and welcome from a wet Newmarket.The typical British Weather has got into the ground,turning race 10 on Saturdays card,The Twilight Pass Challenge Stakes,for fillies and mares 3 yo + run over 13 furlongs into a slog.We have a competitive looking field of 11 trying to cut a dash through the sloppy dirt and take home the winners cheque out of the $80000 pot.

1) INDY`S MINISTER ell2020 141211

4 yo scratchbred mare by AP Indy.28 runs 8 wins 6 seconds and 3 thirds $232969.In the form of her career,winning 2 long route stakes and finishing second in her last three runs.Last time out looked impressive over this trip when winning a 13 furlongs female stakes at Malasyia,running 100 and winning by a comfortable 3 3/4 lengths.Previous to that she won a 16 furlong female stakes in the mud at Sweden by an easy 6 lengths.She is priced up at 7/1,and that to me is over generous.A Holohan is booked to ride.

2) TWO PINE redwood 410325

4 yo scratchbred mare by El Prado.30 runs 8 wins 6 seconds and 5 thirds $288708.Double stakes winner and multiple stakes placed,and a winner on the sloppy dirt also.In fair form until lto when disappointing in a 12 furlongs stakes on this track.Despite putting up a 97 two runs back the same 13 furlong stakes race at Malaysia won by Indy`s Minster,when she finished 3 3/4 lengths second,the pick of her form has come over slightly shorter than this.I dont see any reason for her turning the form around with the 1 horse.J Bradley is booked for this 9/2 shot.

3) UMAGON 375stud 550430

4 yo mare by Mt Livermore out of a grade G mare.21 runs 2 wins 6 seconds and 3 thirds $144624.Difficult task for this one.Has never looked stakes class and her latest 6 runs,all in the 80`s point to her being not good enough here.She has had 1 try at 12 furlongs as a 3yo and didnt look like she stayed the trip there.It might be a struggle to get competitive in this company.She is rated a 14/1 outsider on the book and A Tuscha is in the irons.

4) Red Hill lgbost4 120020

4 yo scratchbred mare by Red Ransom.30 runs 7 wins 6 seconds and 1 third $263799.Another that will struggle I fear.Looks smart over a mile but has done nothing in her career to suggest that she can possibly get this trip.Has also shown a dislike for sloppy conditions on 4 separate occasions,so Im afraid i cant have her here.Still I wish she was mine so I could revert her back to a mile on the fast dirt.Ah well.8/1 looks far too short for me.T Cooper rides.

5) YEAH ALRIGHT jimbob229 514121

5 yo mare by Kings Best out of a grade E mare.34 runs 5 wins 4 seconds and 9 thirds $107344.Rank outsider of the field trying stakes company for the first time.Lto won a 14 furlongs allowance at North Korea with a modest 81.,which suggests she will struggle here.She has shown form over 11 furlongs,winning 2 allowances with speed figures of 93 and 92.That sort of figure might have her sneaking a place here,but she has an extra 2 furlongs to travel on this rain soaked ground.This for me makes it too big an ask.L Sullivan gets the leg up on this 21/1 outsider.

6) EL PYE lordpye2 140315

5 yo mare by El Prado based on a grade E horse30 runs 7 wins 4 seconds and 2 thirds $170917.Broke her stakes duck 2 runs back over 14 furlongs at Tasmania,behind early ran on strongly to win by 3 1/4 lengths,recording a speed figure of 93.Didnt fare so well lto when finishing fifth in allowance company at the same track over 12 furlongs.Toughish looking task here,if back to her best may have place claims.She is priced up at 9/1 and the jockey is L Perry.

7) DEAD LOIS smoken 450311

4 yo scratchbred mare bu Victory Gallop.23 runs 5 wins 3 seconds and 2 thirds $118000.Winner of last 2 races,a $25000 s.a. at Denmark over 10 furlongs and before that a $35000 claimer over 9.5 furlongs at Norway.Takes a big leap here in both class and trip,and is likely to find neither to her preference.May run a lifetime best and still be unplaced and even the ground is a bit of a gamble.Too many things working against her for her to be seriously considered.T Heck rides and she is 11/1.

8) GLADSTONE wistful2 031123

4 yo mare by Birdstone out of a grade G mare.26 runs 10 wins 1 second and 2 thirds $356162.In best form of her career last four starts,all on rain affected dirt and all over shorter.Is a 3 time stake winner up to 12 furlongs and has shown she is a mud lark,yet her best form looks to be over 10 furlongs and that is what iI think she is,a 10 furlong performer.Trained by one of the veterans of the sim,she may need all her trainers know how in the final grueling furlong of this slog.She is our 2nd fav at 4/1 and Ni Ambrose will do the steering.

9) SIMPLE LIE kaif021 631211

4 yo mare by Octagonal out of a grade H mare.16 runs 5 wins 2 seconds and 3 thirds $122716.Good improving form over the trip,in the form of her life, its a mystery to me why this one is touted at 11/1 in a field where so many have question marks surrounding them.Winner of 3 of her last 4 races (and second in the other) by a combined 13 1/2 lengths,all over this trip and her last 2 wins both with speed figures that make her competitive here,I dont understand where the bookies are coming from.The only possible question mark about her is the ground,on which she is unproven.The inexperienced J Liddle will ride.

10) K`S HASTY N` NASTY vertigo2 241124

5 yo scratchbred mare by Crafty Prospector.20 runs 9 wins 4 seconds and 1 third $255850.4 time stakes winner up to 12 furlongs,although she has ran well over this trip and track condition when finishing 2nd in a stakes at Upper New York back in March,where she broke 100 for the first time in her career.She done it again2 runs back at Hong Kong,where she finished 2nd in a 12 furlongs female stakes,just going under by 3/4 of a length but running a lifetime best 103.A repeat of that here would be suffice.She did run poorly lto in China,and has that to get out of her system.Rated the best of these,ranked 21st in her division.She will be partnered by top track jock A Craig and she goes off the 7/2 fav.

11) NICKING deeprock10 030650

4 yo scratchbred mare by Chequer.30 runs 3 wins 1 second and 4 thirds $72081.2 words,no chance.In poor form at present and another that has no prospects of staying this trip.Doesn`t stay 10 furlongs.Even on the pick of her form over shorter looks outclassed.Nothing to recommend this one im afraid.She is 11/1 (far too short in my opinion) and L Hichens rides.

POGO PREDICTS

What started out looking a competitive event when i first glanced at this race now looks a pretty easy once Ive eliminated the ones i feel dont have a chance.The big question for me is who will prevail between 1 and 10 because thats where the winner will come from.Because 1 is double the price i fancy some value for my buck and will take the 7/1 odds.So its 1 to beat 10 with the improving 9 to grab 3rd.