CONTOUR ON FLEEK tops entries for BB Juvenile Fillies

By ITCH

Imagine if Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide took a pass on the college football playoffs.

That would be some relief to the other playoff teams.

Such is the case in the $1.5 million, Grade 1 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies. The No. 1 filly and winner of the Grade 1 Frickazee Stakes, ROCKFEST BANDIT, is not entered. Instead, her trainer, Murray, has opted for more rest and a softer spot in a Grade 2 on Nov. 23. It’s hard to blame a Sim trainer for doing what he thinks is best for his filly.

Maybe Murray has done his research and knows that more often than not, the winner of the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly is likely to pay a high price. As you will see in our research of the last 10 runnings, six of the 10 winners had very little left afterward.

This move could very well work out in favor of Rockfest Bandit.

But for sure, Murray’s reluctance to race the No. 1 filly on less than a month’s rest will favor every other trainer and filly in the Juvenile Filly. They also will benefit from the absences of No. 5 PAYTAH and No. 8 TAKEN IT EASY T. (Benefitting most directly, of course, are the trainers of the final three qualifiers, who would have been bumped if not for this trio of absences.)

The other important development is the condition of the track. We found out on Wednesday afternoon that a 45 percent chance of an off track would come to fruition. We will race on an off track labeled “good.”

The off track plays havoc with the Juvenile Fillies, because only three of the 14 runners ever have raced on an off track. Two of those fillies ran second the only time they stepped on an off track, but one of those was on turf. However, one of our fillies is a perfect 2 for 2 on dirt off tracks.

To get a sense of the history of this race, let’s take a look at the 10 most recent runnings of the Breeders’ Bowl Juvy Filly:

2017: Rharfo’s GOT STREET SMARTS ($23.60) was on the warm end of a blanket finish last year, barely outdistancing SIEGE OF YORKTOWN and TAKE WHAT’S GIVEN in a breathtaking finish. Content to save ground early in sixth as a speed duel blazed between the two outside horses, Got Street Smarts spurted to get first run on the leaders, and always looked like the most likely winner from that point. However, Take What’s Given hung on far more resolutely than the hot early pace seemed to suggest, and Siege of Yorktown really was laying siege to Got Street Smarts. That one came flying from the back and it took a huge run by Got Street Smarts to hold off Siege of Yorktown. Got Street Smarts went on to run a hard-luck fourth in the Grade 1 Bluegrass Oaks, beaten less than two lengths for all the money. Even as she has failed to win in eight starts since her triump in the BB Juvy Filly, Got Street Smarts has remained competitive in graded company and proved her versatility. She has hit the board on both dirt and turf in graded racing now. There may be some big days yet ahead for Got Street Smarts, a bay filly by Street Hero out of a Smart Strike mare named CLICKETY SMART.

2016: Mightyforego’s DOWN BY CONTACT ($19.50) won clear by two lengths, closing stoutly from ninth at the second call to win going away. She beat MS MELFI and COUPON COLLECTOR. By City Zip, Down By Contact was retired as a 4yo and sent to Stormy Atlantic for her first breeding. Her first foal, EASTERN CONNECTION, is precocious like mom was. The filly won her first two starts before missing the board in her third. It just goes to show how good Down By Contact was on Breeders’ Bowl Day in 2016 that she won a Grade 1 race going 8.5 furlongs. She turned out to be a sprinter! After a stretch of spotty form, Mightyforego eventually made a switch with Down By Contact and turned her back to sprinting, as her sire would suggest. She never did return to Grade 1 racing, so her career is a bit of an oddity considering she won her one and only Grade 1 start, and it was in the Breeders’ Bowl.

2015: Nycowboy’s Hall of Famer SWAPSCO KITTY ($8.80) won as the clear favorite with a big speed figure, 101. She was 2 1/2 lengths better than DESTINY WINGS, and almost four in front of the show filly, DEMASQUERADE. Nycowboy’s bay daughter of Scat Daddy was a machine in her 2yo and 3yo seasons. She already had won two Grade 1 races before her triumph in the Juvy Filly, and still had plenty in the tank. Leaving the BB in 2015 with three Grade 1 wins, Swapsco Kitty won three more, and two of them against the boys. She beat the boys in the Grade 1 Movieland Futurity, then did it again in the Grade 1 Sand Castle Derby Lock Prep. She had earned her way into the starting gate for the Bluegrass Derby, where she finished fourth. Despite all this hard racing, Swapsco Kitty was not yet done. After a third-place run in the Middle Jewel, Nycowboy decided to leave the colts alone and returned to the distaff set for the Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes. Swapsco Kitty needed one more Grade 1 win to make the HOF, and she got it. After making the HOF, Swapsco Kitty finally ran out of steam and missed the board in 10 straight races before being retired. Her first foal is by Uncle Mo. Named TACTICAL BOX, the brown gelding is graded-placed. This year’s foal is by Curlin. WHISPERING BIRD is a brown filly who already has started seven times, winning twice. The purse for the Juvy Filly was cut in 2015, from $2 million down to $1.5 million.

2014: Padrebri’s BENCHIAN FINGERS ($16.50) capped an Eclipse-winning 2yo campaign with victory in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies. She was undefeated at that point, a perfect six-for-six. Little could Padrebri have known, but his bay scratch-bred daughter of Awesome Again (Seattle Slew X Forty Niner) never would hit the board again in graded company. After winning the Juvy Filly, defeating MEZTLI MOON and VICTORY ANDTHE SIN, Benchian Fingers went from perfect to perfectly awful. She paid a huge price for her sparkling 2yo campaign, as wear and tear burnt this fine filly to the ground. One of the things we’re keeping track of in our historical review of the Juvy Fillies is how well the winners raced afterward. Benchian Fingers defines the category “never ran the same again.” However, she is making a modest comeback in the breeeding shed. Both of her first two foals to race are stake winners. The 2yo, a brown filly by Pioneer of the Nile, won a listed very nicely last out in her first race going two turns.

2013: Pointblank’s BONAVITA ($22.60) ran the race of her life to rally from far back to defeat FIRST DEGREE BERN and GAME NIGHT. If we created a special category and called it “Flash in the Pan,” then this brown daughter of Street Cry would have been the queen of it. In what must have been a very frustrating career for Pointblank, Bonavita had used up her fleeting talent in the BB, only her fifth career start. After that, stick a fork in her. She was done. Only a tantalizing third-place run in the Grade 1 California Oaks with a never-to-be-repeated 106 speed figure remained. From that point, Bonavita failed to lift a hoof in five straight dismal up-the-track non-races. Pointblank had seen enough. Too bad that a Breeders’ Bowl champion’s lifetime past performances had to be left with such a black mark, but the truth is, most of them end up going bad. It’s just that most of them do not do it as dramatically as Bonavita.

2012: Simarticle’s MINIMINUS ($24.20) was a lot like the 2013 winner in that she used up her last good race in winning the Juvenile Filly. I guess if your filly has one good race in it, the Breeders’ Bowl is a heck of a good day to show it. All the same, it must be frustrating to train flash-in-the-pan fillies like Miniminus. She did manage to run well a couple more times after the BB, like when she was second in the Grade 2 Buccaneer Derby against the boys. However, she mostly was but a shell of her former self. Miniminus was retired in 2014 and has sent five foals to race. Despite her Grade 1-winning status, she never has had a date with a real top-class boyfriend, and has yet to produce a stake winner.

2011: MTKPlaz’s STREET ETIQUETTE ($11.40) ran a gigantic race to win seven years ago, defeating a future Hall of Fame filly in Dixie’s FINAL EXIT, who was third (ESTRADA was second.) The name Street Etiquette rings a very recent bell for this writer, as she is the sire of one of MTK’s two runners in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, BUSINESS ETIQUETTE. MTK’s primary reason for liking Business Etiquette’s chances in the Classic is his high-class family. Street Etiquette was dynamite on the track, winning three Grade 1 races, including vs. the boys in the All Saints Derby Lock Prep. She might be even better in the breeding shed. Of her five foals to race, two are graded winners, and one is a Grade 1 winner: WAR ETIQUETTE, by War Front. Her 2yo foal by Deep Impact already is stakes-placed. If my friend MTK happens across this paragraph, I suspect he would enjoy reading about Street Etiquette, who has become a foundation mare for his highly successful operation. He’s going for his third-straight BB Classic this year!

2010: The Super Stables’ LINDY HOP ($23.40) was a deep closer and the chestnut daughter of Awesome Again did her thing in the Breeders’ Bowl. She was unhurried early in ninth, advanced to fourth at the head of the lane, then barely got up in a desperate finish by a head over Galileo’s RHIANNON II. (ONE IOTA took the show dough.) While Lindy Hop mostly struggled after her Breeders’ Bowl win, she did manage to win a Grade 2 as a 3yo, then was a hard-luck third, beaten only a length and a half in the Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes. Despite those efforts, Lindy Hop struggled enough that those two good races cannot acquit her to say she went on to race well after her BB win. She struggled mightily and was retired in December 2012, going to the breeding shed for the first time in 2013. Her first foal, by Flower Alley, was a claimer, and the Super Stables pulled the plug. Despite being by Awesome Again, and her status as a Breeders’ Bowl champion, Lindy Hop went unbred from 2014 to 2016, three seasons. She went back to use in 2017, sent to Tapit. The foal, SWING ERA, is a strong allowance competitor trying to break through at the listed level. The 2yo, by Uncle Mo, has won already.

2009: Docoz’s CK BLURRED CAT ($11.40) made a huge middle move, advanced from fifth at the second call to the lead at the head of the stretch, then drew away for a 2 1/4-length victory. This brown daughter of Giant’s Causeway was on a huge roll as a juvenile, winning both the Juvy Filly and the Grade 1 Frickazee Stakes on her way to a divisional championship. She ran a couple of good ones as a 3yo, including a fast 111 speed figure while second in a Grade 3, but was out of gas as a 4yo. CK Blurred Cat was retired in 2012, and has sent seven foals to race. She got a Grade 3 winner with her second foal, a mare by Mastercraftsman named CK MASTER CAT who has given Docoz another graded winner. This Breeders’ Bowl champion cannot be considered a filly who went on to race successfully, but her family has continued to bring enjoyment to the stables.

2008: Lenny’s KHARTOUM XI ($19) put a tough beat on Korn’s ULTIMATE DIAMOND, who fought with resolution but could not hold off the winner, losing by a quarter length. (DESIDERIA took the show dough.) A brown daughter of Sadler’s Wells, Khartoum XI was extremely well-bred, a scratch-bred with Mr. Prospector in the middle and Danzig behind. She came through on her investment with her win in the BB Juvy Filly. Later, she returned to the BB twice, missing the board in both the Distaff and the F&M Sprint. By Lenny’s high standards, Khartoum XI has been a disappointment in the breeding shed. She has sent eight foals to race, and does not yet have a graded winner.

Spot any trends? I did. First of all, the Juvy Filly has hardly been a springboard to great Sim careers. Of the past 10 winners, only four have gone on to race successfully: Got Street Smarts, Swapsco Kitty, Street Etiquette and Khartoum XI.

Second, all of the winners in the past 10 years have been closers. No filly has won the BB Juvy Filly in the last 10 years by leading from gate to wire. Only two were in front at the head of the lane! Without question, our historical study shows that the place to be in the Juvy Filly is off the pace, and maybe far off the pace. How the off track on Saturday labeled “good” affects this trend, we do not know yet. However, one might hazard a guess that a track labeled “good” would be a tiring track, and not one to favor frontrunners. If anything, we have to guess that a “good” track only makes it more likely that a closer will win.

I can take a guess that most trainers in the BB Juvy Filly are excited to be here, but I know for certain that the trainer of the No. 1 qualifier is supremely fired up. It’s chat room regular Awkwardandchai, with his pride and joy, CONTOUR ON FLEEK. This 2yo light gray daughter of Forestry is the foal of a hemare named DROWNINATTHEBAR (by Preachinatthebar). The horse was drowned by too many trips to the track, but early in his career, had some class. He had been second in a Grade 2, and Awk decided to give him a shot with Forestry. The result was a fast-closing filly who insisted on finishing in front. She won her first three races despite falling behind early in each. Contour on Fleek could not quite get there in two Grade 2 sprints, but the truth about her was about to be revealed: She is better at two turns! Awk stretched her out to 8.5 furlongs in the Grade 1 Darley, and she exploded. Her late kick was much better timed, and she rolled home to win going away by two lengths. Awk’s residency mates at ESR are proud and happy to see one of their trainers holding such a strong hand for the BB. Contour on Fleek just defeated, and defeated handily, two of the runners which she will meet again on Saturday (TAPITMORE and MO’GRETEL). Also, Contour on Fleek has inherited the No. 1 qualifying position with the absence of Rockfest Bandit. The filly is a late runner, which has been the preferred running style in the Juvy Filly for the past 10 years. She loves the track, having just won her Grade 1 over the Kentucky strip. All systems are go for Contour on Fleek, and good luck to our man Awk, who also is our residency mate at Empire State Racing. We will have to hope Awk’s luck in the actual race will be better than his luck at the post position draw. Contour on Fleek drew the widest of all 14. She also did not get much respect from the morning-line oddsmaker in Kentucky. He rated her 12-1. Only four fillies in the field will go to post with longer odds than our top qualifier. We will find out Saturday afternoon if the off track was a break or not. It may very well have been, as there are several strong mud influences in her breeding lines, like Storm Cat and Mr. Prospector. This will be the first race on an off track for Contour on Fleek.

Here is a trainer you never want to see entered against you: Tees, who will represent Sim Junkees. This dude is tough. With 78 stables stocked with good to really good horses, Tees represents a strong Sim player at the game’s highest levels. He’s won a lot of Grade 1 races, and his share of Breeders’ Bowl races. But you know what he’s never won? He never won a BB race for juveniles. “I’ve won quite a few of these BB races and most of the big ones, but I’ve never won a 2yo BB race,” Tees said. “Clearly, the training of juveniles is not my forte.” While Tees always has big goals in mind for his top horses, he did not necessarily perceive of RETRO SPECTRE as a candidate for the Breeders’ Bowl Juvy Fillies. This 2yo bay filly is by freshman sire Caravaggio, a son of Scat Daddy. Tees thought he was breeding a sprinter. “Caravaggio is an awesome specimen, and I think he will do well at stud. So, I was keen to use him as a cheapish first-season sire already. The hemare DOWNING DRAGONS never broke a 100 speed figure on the track but was well bred and from a family line I wanted to continue.” Three of Retro Spectre’s first four races were at distances as short as 5.5 furlongs or less. “Retro Spectre started out very early in the year and showed ability, coming close in her first three runs,” Tees said. She actually broke her maiden in a states, and then went on to run second in a Grade 2 before disappointing in the Sorgento.” The Sorgento was a Grade 3 going 6.5 furlongs in California. Retro Spectre ran great was an impossible 12th at the top of the lane. She passed more than half of the field in the stretch, but it was only good for a hard-luck fourth. Tees, like any great trainer, allowed an adaptation to his plan. He entered Retro Spectre going two turns, in the Grade 1 Walnut Tree Stakes. “Her win in that Grade 1 last time out was a bit of a surprise because we thought, given her breeding, eight furlongs would be too long for her,” he said. Tees has raced for many years at the top class level of the Sim, and as such, has plenty of Breeders’ Bowl experience and success. As Tees said, he initially perceived Retro Spectre as a sprinter. “The sire was a sprinter, the dam was a sprinter and both were from sprinting families,” he said. “So we still have big concerns over her ability to stay past eight furlongs. Was that last run a one-off? The forecast rain is ironically in her favor, but the distance at longer than a mile means I am doubtful.” Retro Spectre also got no love from the oddsmaker. She’s 10-1 and breaks from post No. 9.

Pye represents his East-West Connection with HOLY MOLY BULB, a 2yo gray daughter of Uncle Mo. “I’m looking for a good run from her. She hails from a family that seems particularly good at producing very good females, so I was expecting big things from the start,” said Pye. Holy Moly’s dam, HOLY BULB (by Street Cry) was a Grade 1 winner, and has given Pye four graded-quality race horses. Holy Bulb’s first foal was THE BULB FACTOR (by Distorted Humor), who is a Grade 1 winner. In only four foals to date, Holy Bulb also has a Grade 3 winner and two graded-placed horses. She is a stunning sensation! Pye is not kidding when he says he was expecting big things from Holy Moly Bulb. Why would he not? This mare is perfect so far. Can she bring Pye that as-yet unattainable prize of a win in the Breeders’ Bowl? Amazingly, the Pye man has never won a BB race. “Yeah, can you believe it?” he said. “I never won one of these damn races. RAY OF PYE was the closest. I had a few others finish in the money, but never a win. Let’s hope the drought ends this year!” As the No. 2 qualifier and second-place finisher last out in the Grade 1 Frickazee Stakes, Holy Moly Bulb seems a very realistic shot at taking Pye to that winner’s circle where he has always wanted to be. So far, she’s done graded racing kind of like her trainer has done the BB: close but no cigars. She has run very well in four graded races, hitting the board in all four. Her most recent example was her second-place run in the Frickazee, but that was an improved race and it came in her first effort going two turns. She moved up in the speed figure department as well, but her 92 must be taken with a grain of salt as the Sim’s speed figures are inflated at a mile. Regardless of speed figure, the good news was Holy Moly Bulb proved she can race competitively in Grade 1 company going two turns. “My main concern is definitely her inability to ‘close out’ any of her graded competition so far,” Pye admitted. “That habit very much resembles her half-sister, PYE’S HOLY MISSION, who performed similarly as a 2yo and early 3yo. She was always right there real close, but never got over the hump. My main source of hope is that HGMB comes from off the pace, while PHM was a frontrunner.” Holy Moly Bulb will break from post No. 6 as the third choice at 7-1.

The trainer of our No. 4 qualifier, NISKAYUNA, was kind enough to send a nice PM about his first Breeders’ Bowl runner. “My name is John Popovich of Oakridge Stable,” he said. “I am the owner/trainer of Niskayuna in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies. This is my third year in the game and my first BB starter.” Only three years and already his first Breeders’ Bowl starter! That is a fantastic start to a Sim career. He’s got some kind of filly in Niskayuna, a perfect four-for-four so far. She is one of two undefeated fillies in the race. The other is NADERA. Niskayuna began her career by winning a couple of hot races, then took a huge jump all the way to a listed stake. The brown daughter of Tale of the Cat was up to the task. Once again, Oakridge asked a lot of his filly, and was she ready? Stretched out to 8.5 furlongs for the first time, Niskayuna made her graded debut in spectucular fashion, flying home to win the Grade 2 Camlaw Stakes by four lengths. Oakridge was headed to his first BB. “She is an undefeated homebred who has taken an unconventional route to the Breeders’ Bowl, starting her career in hot races and then jumping right into stakes and then winning a Grade 2 in Europe. Although it was a hot race, I was very high on her after her maiden race. She showed a lot of talent and an ability to rate and pass horses, which is always a plus for me in young horses. It is an honor just to have a horse qualifty for the BB and I know how hard these type of races are to win, but I would not enter her if I didn’t think she had a real shot. I am optimistic about her chances.” If any trainer in the Juvy Fillies was doing a rain dance this week, it was Oakridge. The off track gives Niskayuna a huge advantage. No other filly in the race has won over an off track! Handicappers are going to have a hard time getting past Niskayuna after she caught her track. There may be other mudders in the race, but we just do not know yet. Of the 11 fillies who have yet to start on an off track, there are going to be a couple who love it, but more who hate it. We know for sure Niskayuna loves an off track. Both her stakes wins were on off tracks, and both were labeled “good,” the same condition she will get on Saturday. Breaking from post No. 12, Niskayuna is 10-1, which seems highly inviting. Oakridge represents the Universal Racing Club with this brand new barn that is super hot. In only 29 races so far, it has won 17.

“Dear Lord baby Jesus, lyin’ there in your ghost manger,” prayed the Simulated horse trainer, Ricky Bobby, “just lookin’ at your Baby Einstein developmental videos, learnin’ ’bout shapes and colors. I would like to thank you for bringin’ me and my mama together, and also that my kids no longer sound like retarded gang-bangers.” A favor to ask of competing trainers in the Juvy Filly: Please do not call security on your fellow trainer Ricky Bobby even as he might strip down to his underwear and run from his owner’s box, exclaiming “Help me Jesus! Help me Jewish God! Help me Allah! AAAAAAAAHHHH! Help me Tom Cruise! Tom Cruise, use your witchcraft to get this fire off me!” The master of the Shake and Bake move will represent All-Stars racing with TAPITMORE, a late-running scratch-bred light gray daughter of Tapiture. Tapitmore successfully made the huge jump from condtioned allowance to Grade 1 last out as she was up late to be second to Contour on Fleek in the Grade 1 Darley. So, Tapitmore earns check marks for class and distance with that good run. She also is a horse for the course, having run very well in both of her last two, both over the Kentucky strip. Her tendency to come from the back also suits the historical tendency in the last 10 runnings of the Juvy Filly. This filly has a lot more going for her than just the prayers of her trainer to the Baby Jesus. Tapitmore will break from post No. 7 and is 14-1. Ricky Bobby represents All-Stars Racing.

The second undefeated filly in this race is NADERA. Trained by 3DDDZ and representing Racing HQ, the distance becomes the question mark for this scratch-bred bay daughter of Nyquist (Storm Cat X Alydar). While Nadera never has been beaten, she also never has gone two turns. Nadera is No. 1 in the dirt sprint division for 2yo fillies, which translates to No. 9 in the route division. She has been brilliant so far at distances up to seven furlongs, especially last out in the Grade 1 Dell Computer Debutante. Nadera faced a full field of 14 fillies but was in control from the outset. She sat a close-up fourth early, easily marking time with the leaders, then going by as she pleased before the turn for home. However, an early move in a seven-furlong sprint does not translate very well to the way the Juvy Filly profiles in its last 10 runnings. Almost all of the winners have come from off the pace. Only two were in front at the head of the lane. If Nadera is to win on Saturday, a handicapper would have to envision a trip in which she is well in front on the turn for home, and then holds off the closers. Before we get too excited with the idea of opposing this filly based on distance, let’s recognize that she could very well be capable of the task. After all, she is undefeated, and waxed a full field of 14 last out in a Grade 1 going seven. Nadera might run even better with the added ground. We will find out on Saturday. Nadera is 9-1 and will break on the outside from post No. 13.

Tenpoint will represent All-Stars Racing with EXAGGERATED RESUME. This 2yo light gray daughter of Exaggerator, out of the Unbridled’s Song mare EASIER THAN WORK, has risen to No. 10 in the division in only four career starts. Residents of All-Stars Racing may have known for a while that Exaggerated Resume would be a tough filly. After all, she won the ASR Sons of Curlin maiden race on June 2, a race in which the filly beat the boys. Since then, she has raced more traditionally, against her own sex. That’s going quite nicely, as well, especially since Exaggerated Resume was stretched out to two turns in her third career start. She cleared her initial allowance condition at a mile, and Tenpoint decided to roll the dice. He entered Exaggerated Resume in the Grade 1 Walnut Tree Stakes. In the early stages of the race, Tenpoint may have been questioning his decision to take such a precipitous class jump. By the end, he felt like a genius. Exaggerated Resume showed a very strong late kick to get up for the show money, and the Grade 1 stakes points associated. It bumped her all the way up to No. 10 in the division. The way she looks now, she could be any kind of good horse. She likes to close late, which fits the bill as far as the running style that’s been winning the Juvy Fillies. We will find out if she likes the off track. She breaks from post No. 11 and is 9-1.

The great Dixie represents Pastures of Green with SO GRACEFUL, who, believe it or not, was an auction buy. Dixie, owner and operator of a historically fine broodmare band, who breeds dozens of fine horses every year, went shopping in the auction to find this 2yo bay daughter of the English sire Indian Haven, out of a Shamardal mare, WATERCRESS STAR. “I rarely buy anything out of the auction, or claim anything, because I have enough headaches from the ones I breed myself,” Dixie said with modesty. “But, I keep one eye open to see if anything interesting ever pops up, and So Graceful fit the bill.” After all, the filly was running well at sprint distances for her former owner. She won two and ran second twice in four career starts before the sale. “I was intrigued by how quickly she had developed once switched to the dirt, and her style and pedigree indicated she would like a little more distance,” Dixie said. “The mare was a nice runner at middle distances, so there was some quality here. I can’t really take credit for anything other than putting her in a good spot, and if she was good enough, then great! At the very least, she should be running on at the end in a race where a lot of them aren’t proven at the distance.” Dixie has won so many top Sim races over so many years, he can be forgiven for having forgotten how many Breeders’ Bowl races he has won. “I’ve won a few, but have no idea how many I’ve run or how many I’ve won. It’s not a bragging thing, I honestly don’t remember! Age brings many things. A better memory is not one of them,” Dixie said. “I do know that last year I thought I had a solid roster of BB runners and didn’t win one. So, I hope this year makes up for it!” So Graceful breaks from post No. 10 and is 11-1. So Graceful is one of only three fillies in the race that ever has raced on an off track, but her race does not seem to matter much. So Graceful ran second over a “good” track, but it was sprinting on the turf in her debut. That was way before the great Dixie got hold of her.

Breaking down on the far inside from post No. 1 at 10-1 is RcdLogan’s BEAT KEEPER. This 2yo roan daughter of Maclean’s Music is a Grade 3 winner, and will race unaffiliated with any residency. Last out, she barely got up to win by a neck over a full field of 14 in the Grade 3 Chicago-DC Lassie. In that race, Beat Keeper broke wide from post No. 11 and lost a lot of ground around the first turn. Never catching a break while continuing three wide down the backstretch, Beat Keeper remained intent on making her run. She accelerated from sixth to second just past the halfway point to take up the chase of a lonely leader named KITTENGATE, who proved stubborn and did not give up easily. Meanwhile, Nextbonus Bill’s CLEVER COUNTERFEIT was charging on the far outside. Beat Keeper had two jobs to do, catch one, and hold off the other. She got it done, barely. The margin at the wire over Clever Counterfeit was a scant 0.22 lengths, a slim difference that meant either making the Breeders’ Bowl or failing to qualify. Nextbonus thought Clever Counterfeit was going to get in off that run, but she did not. Meanwhile, Beat Keeper qualified handily. She is in sharp form now, especially in her last two, when she has been stretched out to two turns. There are only eight graded winners in the Juvenile Fillies, and Beat Keeper is one of them. We’ll have to see if she can translate her Grade 3 from into Grade 1 form on Breeders’ Bowl day. RcdLogan will race unaffiliated in the Juvy Fillies. The name of this trainer is familiar to longtime players. Rcd has been racing a long time, as evidenced by his career total of almost 57,000 starts. I am going to go out on a sturdy limb and say that Rcd will be watching Beat Keeper load into the gate a bit more intently than most of those 57,000 Sim races. Beat Keeper seemed to run very hard last out to win that Grade 3. She worked very hard to catch that leader, then still had something at the bottom of the tank to hold off Clever Counterfeit. How does she react off that hard race? Her improving speed numbers and sharp form say she is on the way up. As you have to expect, there are unknows with a 2yo, but Beat Keeper faces a few on Saturday. It’s her first Grade 1. It’s her first race at 8.5 furlongs. (Although she’s run very well at 8). It’s her first race on an off track. You would have to really believe in a filly like this to back her, but she gives reasons to do so.

Here we are in the owner’s boxes for the Juvenile Filly, as Trotter, Frank, Spinround, Kingab, Cadet, Donny Beisbol and myself have smuggled two jars of good West Virginia moonshine into the box owned by JaStables. His 2yo filly LADY MADELINE will represent Empire State Racing in the Juvy Filly, and Pete said it was OK if we hung out in JaStables’ owner’s box for the race. We would hang out in Nextbonus’ box too, but he got sick of us and kicked us out. Frank is advising JaStables to lay off the hard stuff until after the race, while I am advising him to throw caution to the wind and tip ‘er on back like we do down home in West Virginia. I really think I am right because I think a good shot of booze might calm the nerves of JaStables. The man has been sweating bullets since entries were drawn and he saw Lady Madeline listed as a 6-1 favorite. “Oh my gosh,” JaStables supposedly said, in a fake interview not at all like the real interviews for the remainder of this article. The man is hyperventilating on the regular. Also having trouble breathing is Spinround, every time she looks in the form and sees those breeding lines for Lady Madeline. Wow! She is a scratch-bred by Giant’s Causeway, with Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer behind. Calm down, Spinny! Have a drink. Meanwhile, Cadet is trying to convince JaStables that they should key Lady Madeline in a Pick-5 that will only cost them $2,000 each. Trotter shakes his head in disapproval, saying if JaStables bets, he should bet to show. Donny Beisbol has commandeered a self-betting terminal, quickly calculating algorhythms in his head as to how many times he should key Lady Madeline in the third or fourth spots. Frank comes back from the paddock and whispers to me, “the eight horse.” He likes Nextbonus Bill’s filly, Humoresque. Meanwhile, the Big Buckeye tips back another pull from the applie pie, and hollers out “Ooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhh Itchy, now that’s the good stuff my brother,” while dancing a pre-race victory jig to ESR. As all of these members of ESR have Breeders’ Bowl owner’s boxes of their own, we agree to meet later, and disperse. Lady Madeline will break from post No. 2.

Nice to see the name PazJazz in the entries, representing the Universal Racing Club with MO’ GRETEL. When you saw the name of this filly, you had to suspect Hansel was involved, and he is. Hansel is the broodmare sire of Mo’ Gretel, and has passed down his coat. Mo’ Gretel is a light gray filly. Now, before we get to the horsey particulars, we may recall that “Hansel and Gretel” was a fairy tale of German origin. As the story goes, Hansel and Gretel are a young brother and sister who are kidnapped by a cannibalistic witch living in a forest. Her house is built with cake, confectionery, candy and many more unimaginable treats. The two children escape with their lives by outwitting the witch. So, all was well that ended well for the girl in the fairy tale. How will it turn out in the Juvy Fillies for her namesake? Things did not look too good for Hansel when the witch locked him in a cage. They do not look that great for Mo’ Gretel, either. Normally, I would be excited as a handicapper to find a filly with speed this far down the qualifying order and going to post at 17-1. Truly, that price does seem juicy for a filly who very well may set the pace in the Juvy Fillies. But, in our historical analysis of the last 10 runnings of this race, we discovered that not one of them was won by a filly on the front end. This is a serious, longstanding trend, which Mo’ Gretel is bucking. Then again, like we say, it did not look too good when the witch was going to put Gretel in the stove. But, then what happened? The mean old witch got bumped into the stove, didn’t she? Mo’ Gretel breaks from post No. 3.

In real life, the Adelaide Oval is a sports park in Adelaide, South Australia. The venue is used predominantly for cricket and Australian rules football, but also has played host to rugby, soccer and tennis. The Adelaide Oval also hosts a lot of concerts. It is considered to be one of the most picturesque stadiums in Australia, if not the world. Will ADELAIDES OVAL, the filly, look so good after the race on Saturday? We shall see. This 2yo bay daughter of the thoroughbred sire Adelaide is an Aussie-bred top and bottom, as Redoute’s Choice is the dam sire. The mare, WITHOUT A DOUBTS, was a stake winner for Corza. She had given him three straight stakes-placed runners before Adelaide’s Oval came along. Her sixth foal, Adelaide’s Oval is Without a Doubts’ first graded winner. This mare has a few breeding seasons left at age 15 and it would be nice to see her get a couple good ones. This is a sentiment with which we are sure Corza agrees. Adelaide’s Oval is a strange handicapping puzzle in the Juvenile Fillies. Nobody else, for instance, prepped for this on the turf. It’s back to the main track for Adelaide’s Oval, and in a heck of a spot, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies. She breaks from post No. 4 and is 14-1.

Coomer’s BODE GIRL is the longest shot in the field at 19-1. Apparently, the morning-line oddsmaker in Kentucky was not impressed with her second-place run last out in the Grade 2 Camlaw Stakes. That was the race over in Czechoslavakia won by the undefeated Niskayuna, whom Bode Girl is going to meet again on Saturday. That alone presents a challenge, because Bode Girl is going to have to figure out a way to make up four lengths on Niskayuna. However, when handicappers try to figure out which filly might go well over the “good” track, they are going to have to consider Bode Girl. By the Tapit sire Creator, out of a Bodemeister mare named DEBEEMEISTER, Bode Girl ran well in the Camlaw despite taking huge jumps in both class and distance. Bode Girl had missed the board two back in a listed, and then Coomer decided to try the Grade 2 going two turns. It seemed like a lot to ask, but Bode Girl answered the challenge. She may have been defeated by four lengths, but Niskayuna may be a special filly. Eleven of the fillies in the race have never run on an off track. Bode Girl has run second in a Grade 2 over a track labeled “good,” the same condition they’ll face on Saturday. Representing the East-West Connection, Bode Girl looks a lot more alive in the Juvy Filly than her long odds suggest. She breaks from post No. 5, and is the only filly in the race other than the undefeated Niskayuna who has raced on an off main track. Dixie’s filly, raced on a turf course that was listed good in her debut, so that hardly seems to count. So, only 2 of 14 fillies in the race have experience on this kind of track. Both of them have run well over it. While Bode Girl has only been second in one try, Niskayuna has won impressively in both her starts on a “good” track. If nothing else, Bode Girl’s proven ability to race well over a track labeled “good” means she does not deserve to be the longest price on the board.

OK Bill, you can breathe now. Our longtime friend Nextbonus, whose horses I have been covering since back in the days of my old West Virginia Stakes Contest, asked me in chat on Sept. 22 to cover this race, and I agreed. He planned on having two fillies in the race. As it turned out, he was very lucky to have one. While the second half of the entry, CLEVER COUNTERFEIT, was bumped more than a week before entries were drawn, HUMORESQUE endured an agonizing long wait on the bubble. There were three fillies in the Top 10 who could have bumped her, including the No. 1 filly. Much to the relief of Nextbonus, the axe never fell. And then, once he’d made the race, he quickly discovered that Humoresque would to go post as the co-favorite at 6-1. Imagine that! She barely made the race, surviving a bubble which easily could have popped, and now she’s got a great chance to win, at least in the estimation of the Kentucky morning-line oddsmaker. I sure am glad she made it, and so am I, having already typed up what Bill had to say about her. “Humoresque is a homebred from the he-mare TAKEELA SUNRISE. I purchased Takeela from the auction earlier this year. I dont recall the purchase price. Takeela had both qualities I absolutely require in a potential he-mare. Superb breeding and very solid racing record. My experience has been that many poorly performed but well-bred mares can produce excellent racehorses. But when it comes to he-mares, unless both qualities are present, I’m better off just tearing up my money. Bad racehorses almost always beget bad racehorses. Humoresque’s name comes from a 1946 movie starring John Garfield and Joan Crawford. It is also a genre of Romantic music characterized by pieces with fanciful homor in the sense of mood rather than wit. She won her debut like a good thing in fast time, so on to stakes company. Once again, she won easily. I hate to rob horses of their natural tactical speed. But, I’m influenced by a real-life trainer who said he always wants his horses racing right through the wire unless they are all alone in front. Easing up before the wire cn become a habit that is hard to break. So, I changed her speed from jockey to select to .46, where it remains today. Her best race was two back in the Grade 2 Iron Deck. She dusted a very nice field, including Awkwardandchai’s Contour on Fleek, who went on to capture the Grade 1 Darley in Kentucky. I think I may have brought her back too soon after that. I generally give my 2yos six to eight weeks between starts. But I raced Homoresque on four weeks’ rest and she was kind of dull, I thought, although she still managed to finish third in a tough Grade 2. She will have plenty of rest this time, so if she handles the distance, we will find out whether or not she is strictly a sprinter or a legitimate Oaks candidate. Your old buddy Bill is having the best yea rof his Sim career athte ripe old age of 72. I finished among the Top 10 trainers in stakes wins three times in the past: 2004, 2005 and 2007. That streak was followed by several decent years when I still finished in the Top 25. Then, I s tarted tailing off. Last year, I won a total of 28 stakes racs. A decent enough total for most folks, and still tied for 52nd with three pretty fair country trainers in Frankster, Desperado Rob and Summerset. But, for whatever reason, I have been EN FUEGO! As of last weekend I now have 69 stakes win and am in seventh place! Till 2.5 months to go. The bottom could still fall out. But so far I’m having the time of my Sim life. Next year I may be back down the ladder. But once this year is in the books, they can’t take it away.” Humoresque breaks from post No. 8.

And now, for the first time in this writer’s zany BTB career, I will preview a horse that is not in the race. That’s right, folks. My old pal Nextbonus Bill asked me the personal favor of previewing this race, being as he expected to have two fillies in it. Unfortunately, Nextbonus only ended up with one filly in the race. CLEVER COUNTERFEIT was bumped. Too bad. It would have made for a nice story for Spinround to see yet another of her many gift horses make it to the Breeders’ Bowl. I’ll let Eliza tell the story for a while: “She is actually a half-sister to a Breeders’ Bowl Juvy Filly Turf winner. Bill and I decided to exchange babies this year. He wanted to give me the last foal of one of his best mares and let me pick the sire. He wanted me to surprise him with a baby. I bred one of my best mares, SCATTERLINGS, to Uncle Mo and sent the filly to Bill. Five of the mare’s seven foals are stakes winners with the best being WHO WATCHES, who won three Grade 1 races including the Breeders’ Bowl. The name comes from a song by a band The Mountain Goats called ‘Prowl Great Cain.’ The lyric is ‘it’s hard to tell gifts of the spirit, from clever counterfeits.’ I wanted to name the horse GIFTS OF THE SPIRIT but I had already used that name. So Clever Counterfeit it was.” Did Spinny realize she had once again offended the Simulated Name Police? Why would anyone want to name a horse counterfeit? “Those are my best runners!” said the trainer of HABEUS CORPSES. Meanwhile, while Clever Counterfeit has missed the Juvy Fillies, she is not dead yet. Bumped from the BB, Nextbonus is resorting to an old tactic he likes to call the “You See LA play.” Named for his filly who won the Middle Jewel, the play entails running a good filly against colts. This time, he’s running Clever Counterfeit in the Grade 3 Nashua Special, also on Saturday. Here’s hoping that getting bumped from the Juvy Fillies turns out to be a blessing in disguise for Clever Counterfeit. Bill sure likes the filly, and was confident in her coming into the Breeders’ Bowl. “I never had a Juvy Filly starter until this year. Clever Counterfeit was obtained in a trade with our good friend Eliza. She proposed the idea of foal trading early in the year on the message board. It sounded like a fun idea. So, I gave her the final foal of one of my favorite broodmares, VIXEN PROSPECTOR, and she gave me Clever Counterfeit. Unfortunately, Vixen’s baby has been slow developing.” (Dont’ feel bad, Bill. I am the king of giving slow gift horses.) “I hope it gets better but who knows? On the other hand, CC was very good from the beginning. I used to run my horses through their conditions routinely before trying stakes company. But this year, I started throwing them into the deep water much sooner of they showed promise early. CC was brilliant in her debut so I put her in a listed stakes next time out. I was fairly pleased wit the third-place finish, although she didn’t finish as well as she had in her bow. For the next race, I wanted her well off the early pace, so I changed the speed setting from jockey select to .35 and she responded with a convincing stalk-and-pounce stakes win. Next, I tried her in a Grade 2 at 6.5 furlongs. She was favored and closed some ground late but only managed a fourth. Her most recent outing was in a Grade 3 at a mile. She passed everyone but Beat Keeper and posted an 89 speed figure. It seems like a perfect prep for the Breeders’ Bowl. After 18 years of Sim racing and 30 years as an owner/breeder in harness racing, I’ve learned that anything can and will happen in a horse race. So, I have no great expectations. But I will say this, I feel CC is sitting on a big one and it would not surprise me in the least if she found her way to the line first.” It’s too bad that she will have to find her way to the finish line in New York instead of Louisville, but good luck anyway, old buddy.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!!!!