I Got the Brains, You’ve Got the Looks, Lets Make Lots of Money

To steal a line from the Pet Shop Boys, I Got the Brains, You’ve Got the Looks Lets Make Lots of Money.  Okay, so maybe I am giving myself too much credit, but I certainly handicap better than I look, and even though that’s still not saying much, it is the only side of the phrase I can I can associate myself with.

Breeder’s Cup Day is upon us, and with just a little too much time on my hands, I can’t help but to add my Two Cents with my selections for both days.

Now for the disclosure… The views expressed herein are solely the responsibility of the author and should not be interpreted as an intent to influence or persuade your betting choices.  Trust me, if you have read my BTB articles over the years or been to the track with me, then you are aware that I couldn’t pick a winner in a Match Race.

FRIDAY

BCJvTfSprL1000K Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Is this even a BC race?  Juvenile turf Sprint?  Million Dollar purse and not even Graded status.  Well, I have to pick one here so…Maybe a Show bet on the morning line 20-1 shot Stillwater Cove might be my play here.  This Filly took a length lead in the stretch after pushing suicide fractions in the One Mile G1 Natalma LTO before giving way late.  I’m not sure this gal wants to be rated, but Irad seems to have a better idea of how to handle this filly, who just might be too fast for these.

BCJvFlTf-G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Fillies exiting the G2 Miss Grillo stakes have done well in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Chad Brown pretty much has owned this race over the last few years.  When you do the math, 1+1= Newspaperofrecord.  Not convinced?  Watch a replay of the Ms Grillo.  This race provides a great opportunity as a single slot for you Pick-3/4 players.

BCJuvFil-G1 Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Restless Rider has the homefield advantage and was proclaimed as ‘the best filly I ever trained’ according to Kenny McPeek.  Bellafina crushed a G1 field at Santa Anita in her last start, a track where 4 of the last 6 Juvy Fillies have exited.  Serengeti Empress won the G2 Pocahontas over this very track by an eye popping 19 lengths.  Trying to settle on one of these three is a remedy for disaster.  Another race where I prefer to make a Show bet on a longshot, this one Cassies Dreamer, who might have been the best horse in the G1 Spinaway after a troubled trip and should appreciate two turns.

BCJuvTrf-G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

The Euro’s have pretty much owned this race, particularly Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore who have won four.  That said… Anthony Van Dyck.

BCJuvnle-G1 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Considering the girls ran faster fractions in the G1 Alcibiades than the boys and the time of the race was equal to the boy’s time in the G1 Breeders Futurity on the same day at Keeneland, I’m going to toss all horses that exited the G1 Breeders Futurity.  This leaves horses exiting the G1 Champagne and G1 American Pharoah.  Complexity and Game Winner where impressive winners respectively and are going to take the most interest at the betting windows, so I’d rather focus on different options in this race.  Code of Honor has a troubled trip in the Champagne to finish second while Gunmetal Gray had to overcome a bobbled start to finish second to Game Winner in the G1 American Pharoah.

SATURDAY

BCFMSprt-G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

One of the top prep races for the Filly and Mare sprint has been the G2 TBA Stakes at Keeneland.  I am giving the edge in tis race to Golden Mischief over Chalon because she sits the better trip, has a win over Churchill, and has won a race at this distance.  I’m really splitting hairs here between these two horses that finished only a head apart in the G2 TBA.

BCTrfSpt-G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

I am taking the “horse for course” approach to the Turf Sprint.  Despite getting the perfect trip to finish 2^nd LTO in the G2 Woodford at Keeneland, I am making Will Call my top selection.  He is two for two over this course and has been working out here since August.  Vision Perfect intrigues me here based on his victory over Bucchero and Pay Any Price back in March. I’m tossing out his race in the G3 Turf Sprint where he went off the favorite against Will Call and Bucchero.  I am also keeping an eye on the tote board for Ruby Notion who likes the Churchill Turf Course. I’m always on board for a Show wager in a BC field.

BCDirtMi-G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Short and sweet…Firenze Fire is the best miler in this field for my money.

BCFMTrf-G1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

California horses don’t fare very well in the Filly and mare Turf nor do Aidan O’Brien horses, so I will ignore those entries in this race.  This race has become Chad Brown vs. Europe over recent years and both Brown and O’brien come here with both barrels loaded.  The G1 Flower Bowl has always been a key prep for the Filly and mare Turf, putting Brown’s Fourstar Crook at the top of the list; of course, she has to beat Brown’s star in this division Sistercharlie.  I’m hoping to find a big price on Santa Monica for an across the board / Show longshot play against the favorites.

BCSprint-G1 TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint

As one of my top plays on the day, I’m taking my shot on Limousine Liberal.  First of all, he loves this racetrack; secondly, I didn’t think it possible that in a five horse field, a jockey like Jose Ortiz, arguably the best in the country, could run a horse into so many blind switches during a stretch run as he did in the G2 Phoenix LTO.

BCMile-G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile

The G1 Shadwell Turf Mile has always been a major prep for American based horses in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but in watching a replay of that race I am left uninspired.  Sir Michael Stoute enters two horses in this field Expert Eye and Mustashry.  My plan is to use both horses in Pick 3’s in races 6-7-8, 7-8-9, 8-9-10.

BCDistaf-G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The G1 Cotillion has been a major prep race for the Distaff, but I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know about Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou.  Can they be compromised racing against the likes of Abel Tasman and other older horses of this kind…absolutely…so if I am going to bet a horse out of the G1 Cotillion, why not Wonder Gadot.  As crazy as that sounds, she was quite impressive when beaten only a half-length to Monomoy Girl in the G1 Kentucky Oaks in May over this very racetrack.

BCTurf-G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

Keeping it simple, the Euro’s own this race.  Enable owns the Euros, well, all but one.  For Pick-3 and Pick-4 players this might be your only single slot on the day.  Waldgeist needed a roadmap to navigate from the back of the pack in the Arc but may still only be second best.

BCClasic-G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Before there was Justify, there was McKinzie.  What might have been had not an injury prevented him from facing Justify in the Triple Crown.  Time for a curtain call.

While betting Pick-3/4’s in races like these can be a costly proposition, there are a few races provide an opportunity to single slot a few horses.

I think Enable provides that opportunity in the Breeder’s Cup Turf and will allow you to spread out in the preceding and following races.  Also, Expert Eye and Mustashry are two runners from Sir Michael Stoute, so it is more of a bet on the trainer than it is either horse.  I also like McKinzie in the Classic.

My Pick 3’s might look something like this…

Expert Eye and Mustashry with All with Enable

Then All with Enable with McKinzie

Most people that have been to the track with me know that I am not adverse to making a Show Bet, especially in Breeder’s Cup races where the races are as competitive as the fields are large.  This provides a great opportunity to cash in on some generous show prices.  Don’t get caught having a longshot close out your exacta  and not have the other half.  Back up those longshot plays, you’ll be surprised how high those Place and Show prices can get.

 

Good Luck

trot