Invincible Irish Seeks to Impose Herself at the Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf

Kentucky (KY) – Friday, November 2, 2018 — 2:10:00 PM EST

Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf – 8 Furlongs on Turf

Grade I — Purse : $750,000

Restricted to 2 Year Olds, Fillies Only 

The international racing world once again descends on Kentucky for this year’s edition of the Breeder’s Bowl. Fourteen races in two days will decide the best horses of the year at a variety of distances, surfaces, and age groups. Fourth on the card for Friday is the Filly Juvy Turf, a test for the best juvenile fillies going a mile on the grass.

Last year’s race saw Sadie Jane take the win going gate to wire. She hasn’t been able to extend that form into a strong three-year-old campaign, perhaps dampening the hopes of anyone who expects Friday’s winner to become a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer. Indeed, none of the starters from a year ago looks to enter the gate at this week’s Breeders’ Bowl F and M Turf.

So for our fourteen starters, the future is now with immortality awaiting any victor on Breeders’ Bowl weekend. Four fillies have already taken the top spot at a G1 race, each earning more than half-a-million dollars in their first years on the track. The favorite, Invincible Irish, has expanded beyond defeating opponents of the same gender with two thrilling victories in open fields at the Firebird and the Golden Shoe earlier this fall.

The Field:

As is typical for a top-tier turf race, the Filly Juvy Turf features quite an international field. Just two starters are American-bred, OG Declaration (10/1) and Grahams Cadet (11/1), though both will be racing on their home track in Kentucky. OG Declaration has shot through the ranks recently, winning her last three and taking her only start at a graded stakes race by two-and-a-half lengths. These are the longest odds she has faced and just her second time going a mile. Grahams Cadet looks to return to prominence on the turf after an ill-advised shift to dirt in August. Like many of Animal Kingdom’s offspring, she favors the softer surface and came in third at the G3 Wet Bikini Stakes back in July.

By virtue of a recent struggle and the lack of top-end speed figures, a couple fillies will start out as the long shots in the field. Unintended Boston (18/1) was talked about as a potential winner of this race a month ago before a really perplexing performance at the Chevel. Whether through injury or just a terrible off day, she finished at the back of that field after having won five straight. If healthy and with the form she demonstrated to win the G1 More Glare Stakes, this horse could surprise. Miracle Affair (16/1) has been more consistent, showing steady improvement with each outing, but won the G3 Miss Brillo with just an 80 SP#. That figure would have finished last by a significant distance a year ago.

Two other long-shots with a 15/1 morning line have demonstrated superior pace in the right moments and could feature if they get a bit of luck. Lady of Defense (15/1) took two tries to break her maiden and then two more to earn a G3 victory at the Dormello. That most recent effort showed off a serious aptitude for kicking after a hard race. Bonezander (15/1) took a second at the G3 JPMC Jessamine at this racecourse and had a solid win in an ungraded stakes race down in Brazil in early September.

Other potential value for money includes graded stakes winners Spiriting Away (11/1) and Second Island (12/1). Each has cracked the mid-80s going a mile on turf and carries the confidence of a big recent victory. Let (13/1) finished second behind Spiriting Away at the G2 Spring Hill Stakes and is not “letting” the lack of a win in any non-maiden race deter her from taking on top challengers.

Opted Back In (10/1) triumphed over Bonezander and the rest of the field at the JPMC Jessamine and has the benefit of not having to travel since she arrived for that race in late September. Winning in Kentucky after three straight Irish local bred allowance starts catapulted her from dreaming of future glory right into the thick of the action this weekend.

Light So Bright (9/1) has fared well since moving off the dirt after three starts. She won the G1 Wet Bikini Stakes over Grahams Cadet and finished third at the G1 Filly Grand Prix behind Otto Benny and Total Newb. Her connections have requested that this preview not jinx her shot on Friday, so I’ll look elsewhere for the winner but suffice to say that there is enough talent in this French filly to compete with anyone in the division.

That leaves three top contenders for the victory, two of whom have just been mentioned. Total Newb (6/1) won the Filly Grand Prix by a length and three-quarters after taking the lead halfway through. She previously came in third at the G1 More Glare Stakes and won three straight starts at 6.5 furlongs rather handily as she moved up the competition ladder. Her most recent speed number of 92 is better than any starter in the field save one. Otto Benny (6/1) is not that horse but does carry fresh legs having taken second at the Filly Grand Prix in only her fourth start. She previously also placed in the G3 Premie Champion Stakes going up against the boys.

Invincible Irish (5/1) knows all about breaking gender barriers. After losing her first start on the dirt way back in February, six straight victories have proceeded to carry this Australian-bred to the top of the world rankings for fillies and mares of any age. The two next-best ranked two-year-olds on turf haven’t made the trip, slightly improving her odds. Wins over open fields at the Firebird and Golden Shoe, both Grade 1 races, solidified her status the likely the best juvenile thoroughbred anywhere in the world.

*But* none of those wins came beyond 6.5 furlongs. She is stretching out a quarter of a mile further than she has run since May. Taking the lead by the halfway mark in each win has been fairly easy over a short distance. This is another beast entirely. With a mile-long race preparing her three toughest challengers for this occasion, could that inexperience in routes prove costly?

Prediction:

Let races to the front to take the field through the quarter-pole. She is followed closely by Invincible Irish, who is flanked by OG Declaration and Opted Back In. Entering the final stretch, Grahams Cadet comes from well off the pace to challenge but never quite makes it to the group of four favorites as Light So Bright starts to lose contact at the front. It’s a photo finish but in the end the board reads:

1. Invincible Irish
2. Otto Benny
3. Total Newb