Which Two Year Old will Exit the Belt Parkway First in the $100,000 ESR Bumper to Bumper Stakes

A field of Eleven New York Bred Two Year Old’s will enter the Big Apple starting gate for the $100,000 ESR Bumper to Bumper Stakes.

WAR NOTION – the trotter1 trained 2 Year Old Bay Colt by War Dancer out of the multi-stakes producing mare STORMY NOTION (Storm Cat) has answered every challenge he’s faced so far in his young career; the NY-bred is undefeated in four starts at the local level and is the likely target in his first Stakes appearance…one to beat

PAZIBLE STRIKE – the kingab trained 2 Year Old scratch-bred Light Grey Colt by Mission Impazible out of a Seattle Slew x Smart Strike mare took a huge leap forward LTO when he trounced a field of local rivals going around two turns for the first time in his career; the NY-bred turned in a career best 85-speed figure in that start equaling WAR NOTION, both topping out the field in the speed figure category…main threat

PROFESSOR MALONEY – making his two-turn debut is the casino trained 2 Year Old Brown Colt by Golden Missile out of the G2 winning, Graded Stakes producing mare GOLD BANSHII (Seeking the Gold); the career perfect two for two NY-bred has impressed favorably in both starts and enters the race freshened after a hotly contested head victory in his last start…might be this good

TEN AND A FIVER – one of two horses in this field to compete at the stakes level, the glennc trained 2 Year Old Light Grey Gelding by Mission Impazible out of the stakes placed mare MINER N POSSESSION (Milwaukee Brew) turned in an even effort to finish third LTO in the ESR Coney Island Special going one mile over the turf course; the versatile performer should progress with a mile race under his belt and while returning to the dirt where he has had his most success…eligible to improve

NYW MISSILE CADET – the cadet trained 2 Year Old Bay Filly by Golden Missile out of the stakes winning mare CADETS CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway) has the distinction of being the fields only stakes winner, that coming in her last start in the ESR Skyscraper Stakes just 28 days ago; undefeated in two starts when racing around two turns,  the talented NY-bred Filly is no stranger to tackling the boys, having faced them twice before, but has yet to record a victory against the opposite sex…dangerous

NYC SKYLINE – the frankster trained 2 Year Old Bay Colt by Majestic City out of the multi-stakes producing mare NO ORDINARY BROAD (Green Desert) was impressive in his debut displaying a strong closing kick while traveling 5.5-furlongs in his New York Local debut; slow early in his following start going 7-furlongs, the late running NY-bred struggled to find that late surge during the stretch drive and had to settle for a minor share…stretch threat

PAT DAY SPIRIT – the aladar trained 2 Year Old Bay Colt by Alpha out of the stakes placed mare PAT DAY DERBY (Empire Maker) led every step of the way in a New York HOT Race Maiden prep traveling 6-furlongs over the Turf Course; expect the New York product to exit the gate quickly while taking on two-turns for the first time…must not falter

DEPOSIT THE HENNY – making his racing debut is the lbailey trained 2 Year Old Bay Colt by Central Banker out of the stakes winning mare STRANGE DAYS (Henny Hughes), winner of just under $200k while racing around two-turns; none of the NY-bred’s five siblings have equaled the DAM’s racing ability, including recording a victory in their first start, suggesting a tall task for this Colt in his racing debut…in tough

BACK ME JAYMZ – another making his first career start is the ace trained 2 Year Old Brown Colt by Hold Me Back out of the stakes placed OBROTOWY (Revolutionary); I have to consider this start as nothing more than a how do you do to racing based on the sire’s affinity to producing Turf runners while bred to a DAM that’s success came racing over the turf…watch list

IGGY POPPER – requested by the stewards to keep his saddlecloth on during his performance, the kody trained 2 Year Old scratch-bred Roan Colt by Normandy Invasion out of a Shareef Dancer x Woodman mare will make his racing debut in the ESR feature; Normandy Invasion ranked 7^th among New York sires for 2016 and 2017 producing five stakes winners including a G2 winner; the NY-bred faces a tough challenge here on Saturday but should gain in valuable experience going forward…would surprise

SCOTTISH INVASION – the valesa trained 2 Year Old Light Grey Colt is another first time starter in this field by Normandy Invasion; his DAM, SCOTTISH PLAY (Bourdon Courage), did most of her winning while sprinting on the Turf Course, thus diminishing the expectations of the NY-breds racing debut…not with these

Handicapping the Field

The appearance of four first time starters in this field cuts the handicapping process by 36%.  TEN AND A FIVER, NYC SKYLINE, and PAT DAY SPIRIT appear to be just a notch below the top four in this field.

WAR NOTION and PAZIBLE STRIKE are the main contenders having won over this distance while posting the top speed figures in this field.  Combined they are 7-10 lifetime and should be the horses to beat here on Saturday.

NYW MISSILE CADET, the only stakes winner in the field, races on 28 days rest after her stalking victory in the ESR Skyscraper Stakes LTO.  The combination of the short rest and inability to beat the boys prompts my hesitation to endorse this talented Filly in this ESR feature.

PROFESSOR MALONEY is the likeliest horse to upset the top two choices and enters the field freshened after a hard fought victory.  Undefeated in two starts, a must to use in all exotics.

There is no doubt that NYC SKYLINE was impressive in his debut, but his last start leads me to believe that he is going to prefer shorter distances and then possibly on the Turf.  He will be dangerous in the stretch if I am wrong, and if the price is right could light up the exotics.

The connections for TEN AND A FIVER have excelled at the Local Level in ESR races, and on that note, he is dangerous, but I’m not convinced this Colt is up to this level at this time despite a stakes placing.

PAT DAY SPIRIT showed speed in his maiden victory and is likely to go to the front right out of the gate.  Speed is dangerous, but he would have to make a huge jump to wire this field.

DEPOSIT THE HENNY, BACK ME JAYMZ, IGGY POPPER, and SCOTTISH INVASION all make their racing debut and will benefit from this start.

The Picks

WAR NOTION – tough to pick against based on what he has done so far

PAZIBLE STRIKE – last was good and could take all with similar effort

PROFESSOR MALONEY – can’t leave this one off my ticket