War Time
A tough field of fourteen will take on the Grade I Man of War Stakes this weekend. Two three-year-olds and a dozen older horses are going to run eleven furlongs on the New York lawn, seeking to join greats like Bristol Rovers, Joe Cayenne, and two-time winner Sunnybank Memorial as champions of this great race.
Here’s who is looking to add their name to this list of chamions:
Breaking from the inside will be Sdmf2’s Top Jimmy, a six-year-old warhorse who seeks his first graded win this year. He’s competitive at a variety of distances and usually earns a paycheck. This come-from behind runner will have a solid jockey aboard. A solid and consistent runner who will make some money with a good run this weekend. Don’t count on him to hit the board, but he has a good shot at paying for his oats and picking up some bps.
Next door will be the four-year-old Theatrical son Stunning Blow. He finished third in the Grade I United Countries earlier this year with a huge speed figure. He ran disappointingly in his most recent outing for no apparent reason, but if he can bounce back from that, this 6/1 runner is a very real threat for second or third. He likes the distance and is capable of running with the best. Doesn’t usually win in graded fields, but will start out at or near the lead and with good riding, Latte’s colt has a great shot at seeing his number on the board.
The three hole will host Mrkyle’s longshot, Flying Academy. A solid runner in the right company, he looks to be in rather deep with this group. Good jockey should help bring out his best.
Then there’s be Stretch’s Thunder, a War Chant x Slew colt coming in at 11/1. He’s capable of a monstrous race, but some of his best running has come on an off track. I’d consider him competitive if it were raining, but as it is, this race is probably too much for him. Dismal rider doesn’t help.
vEmerative is one of two three-year-olds taking on their elders in this race. Seaeagle09 got a heckuva deal when he picked up the winner of the Grade III Giacomo Stakes in a $2k claimer last time out. He certainly deserves better than claimers, but he’s been off in his most recent graded efforts. Switching to turf could help him, but he’s picking an awfully tough spot to stage his comeback. I’d like to see him dip his toes in a shallower pool first. It’ll be interesting to see what he does as his new trainer plays around with him, but this isn’t the best time to bet him.
Eliza’s Dancin in Seattle is another horse who would be better off with a messy track. Almost unstoppable in the slop, he’s much more vulnerable when the footing is good. Frontrunner will have a hard time getting to his preferred spot in this tough field when the conditions aren’t going to favor him. Have to pass on him here, but a very nice mudder.
Tenpin6’s Another Tenpin Tap has been running beautifully recently, though he has a tough case of seconditis in graded fields. He likes to be near the front and has finished second in twelve-furlong Grade 1s in his last two starts. Competent jock makes more of the same likely. Watch for this Seeking the Gold son to run reliably and quite likely come in on the winner’s tail.
Invierno represents Hornfrog2 in the race. A hard-knocking five-year-old son of Milwaukee Brew, the horse finished a solid third in the Grade I Sword Swallower last time out. In general he’s more of an overnight stakes runner, but that last outing showed that he can run with the big dogs if he runs his best race. At his best, he has a shot at the board here, but it’ll take a big race from him. On top of that, this race may be just a hair short for him.
Sedation’s Manduro is another ex-claimer made good. Though he’s a nice horse who’s come a long way, the Fantastic Light colt hasn’t shown any signs that he’s up for Grade I company. He’s in pretty deep here (especially given his lousy rider), but put him back in overnight stakes and he should be successful. A superb claim for his current owner.
Aggots’ Kiwi rocket, Freeze, will come shooting out of the ten hole. The deserving 10/1 favorite has won has last two with style – including the tough Smackdown and the Grade I Sword Swallower. This stretch runner isn’t always way back, but he likes to take the lead at the last moment. His last two races have been huge and he comes into this one as a very tough presence. A 23%-winning jock doesn’t hurt a bit. He’s not unbeatable, but it would take a heck of a run by someone to stop him.
The race’s second three-year-old is the whimsically named Galactic Bomber, trained by Focusforce. He’s been competitive against his agemates, but finishing third in graded company against three-year-olds won’t necessarily translate into hitting the board against his elders. Orientate colt could do well with his best race, but this is a step up for him. Competent jock should go a ways towards getting a good run out of him.
The twelve hole will feature Jakplummer’s S R Mix Oil, a lightly-raced son of Magic Albert. He’s been successful at overnight stakes, but finished a well-beaten fifth in his one graded attempt. He’s capable of some fast times, but he’s going to toughen up a bit to run in this quality field. Will need his best effort this weekend.
Champions4’s Land of Legends is coming off an easy win in an overnight stakes. He’s picked up some paychecks in graded company (including a very nice second in a Grade 1), so he’s capable of being competitive. More typically, though, he’s a midpack finisher in races like this one. Could get a paycheck with a strong race, but is more likely to find himself somewhere in the middle.
Last is A Necessary Evil, trained by Fiat. The Vindication son is another ex-claimer made good. He’s made some nice runs in allowance and overnight stakes company, but his first venture into a graded field didn’t go so well. He’s a capable runner who can get some fast times, but this is an awfully tough spot for him.
The odds are overall pretty fair on this one. The favorite has it made if he runs his race, but there are several horses perfectly capable of picking up the pieces should he falter. Best of luck to all the horses and trainers.